gld failed to break above next resistance level, gdx loses pior day gains
look for buyers to step in at oversold levels for hmy , auq
look for buyers to step in at oversold levels for hmy , auq
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From poker player to Level 2/tape reading prop trader
- Thread starter modifiedtype
- Start date
continued from previous update...
dollar finished positive, gld finished day slightly negative,
meanwhile gdx tanked, after a week long effort to find support, we see the reoccuring theme of divergence activity between gld and gdx. we saw large seller across all stocks, AUQ giving more than 12 ticks. all 2nd tier gdx stocks broke below daily/weekly support eg hmy 3.20-21.
obama shutdown conference while no specific reference to to economy or shutdown, may have acted as catalyst
prep for tomorrow: keep an eye on large seller presence across all 2nd tier gdx stocks. look for gap ups/downs for gdx in relation to gld
dollar finished positive, gld finished day slightly negative,
meanwhile gdx tanked, after a week long effort to find support, we see the reoccuring theme of divergence activity between gld and gdx. we saw large seller across all stocks, AUQ giving more than 12 ticks. all 2nd tier gdx stocks broke below daily/weekly support eg hmy 3.20-21.
obama shutdown conference while no specific reference to to economy or shutdown, may have acted as catalyst
prep for tomorrow: keep an eye on large seller presence across all 2nd tier gdx stocks. look for gap ups/downs for gdx in relation to gld
Quote from ChinggChilla:
Bit of an off topic question: curious if you focused on ring games or sng/mtt games during your poker days?
by your asking that question,I'm going to guess that you are a sng/mtt player interested in the markets. fyi, i too played mostly mtts/sngs - the multitable sngs (45/180 man) or low buy in mtts were my main games.
any form of poker is good training ground. many similarities exist between poker and stock trading - capital preservation (relative stack sizes # of bbs), bid/offer ecn refresh/hidden orders (bluffing), managing risk or entering trades only when you see good risk:reward ratio (tight aggressive style) are some of them.
also i am slowly learning when to hold onto trades that are working for me and when to exit. In poker, this is analogous to barreling all three streets either for value or as a bluff/leaning against a short stack.
i trade gold stocks only, and i look at gld and gdx for direction. for example a stock that i trade is hmy. say im looking for short positions. when gld/gdx breaks a trendline or major support level after hours of holding it up, i can assume that we're nearing the bubble. how do you play during the bubble stages?
that I can choose to be more aggressive by increasing my number of shares to trade (put in a sizable raise) when i have a lot of chips relative to the avg chip stack.
there are two major difference however. one is that there is much more liquidity and capital in stock trading. you might think that this implies your swings will be greater but not quite so. that depends on your level of comfort with taking riskier trades.
second, in stock trading you are not only playing against other people but against computersl. this also has major implications. think of these programs as the big stacks that gets moved to your table. does your strategy change? you bet. first i have learned that i must trade only at major pivot points to avoid getting shaken out (this is analogous to calling a preflop raise and folding on the flop, these losses add up). that being said often times you are able to see when they become active and use that to your advantage. however i cannot describe them to you in words for my own lack of clarity yet.
Hi, modifiedtype, thank you for your journal, it's interesting.
regarding poker, would you say that profitable players have an edge?.. if so, what would that edge be ?
How would you define an edge in trading ?
Do you think you have an edge?
regarding poker, would you say that profitable players have an edge?.. if so, what would that edge be ?
How would you define an edge in trading ?
Do you think you have an edge?
gld/gdx recap: gdx makes several attempts to find value higher following move from yesterday; however gld produces lower highs on an hourly chart, 14:20pm bring start of breakdown for gdx
symbols traded: auq, hl, hmy, iag, gfi
$gfi was largely unaffected by gld/gdx due to news: barrick acquires shares of gfi (http://www.northernminer.com/news/gold-fields-completes-deal-to-buy-three-barrick-mines/1002630461)
$hmy broke down below its weekly support level, short trade provided low reward considering recent weakness in bearish activity for gdx.
$auq move largely guided by buyer/seller activity @ 1240pm 1320pm buyer stepping up with 70k shares on bid ecn after gld finds intraday low at 127.54 from 3.84 to 3.87, holding 3.87 during yet another slide by gld (gdx unaffected) then from 3.87 to 3.91 (weekly pivot level)
1420pm: confirmation of failed attempt to move higher provides lower risk to reward entry for individual stocks. auq proved to have most room to the downside, other stocks had already ticked down prior to breakdown.
points to consider: move should be more explosive (reversion to true value area) to the downside if buyer has attempted to artificially move up prices intraday.
symbols traded: auq, hl, hmy, iag, gfi
$gfi was largely unaffected by gld/gdx due to news: barrick acquires shares of gfi (http://www.northernminer.com/news/gold-fields-completes-deal-to-buy-three-barrick-mines/1002630461)
$hmy broke down below its weekly support level, short trade provided low reward considering recent weakness in bearish activity for gdx.
$auq move largely guided by buyer/seller activity @ 1240pm 1320pm buyer stepping up with 70k shares on bid ecn after gld finds intraday low at 127.54 from 3.84 to 3.87, holding 3.87 during yet another slide by gld (gdx unaffected) then from 3.87 to 3.91 (weekly pivot level)
1420pm: confirmation of failed attempt to move higher provides lower risk to reward entry for individual stocks. auq proved to have most room to the downside, other stocks had already ticked down prior to breakdown.
points to consider: move should be more explosive (reversion to true value area) to the downside if buyer has attempted to artificially move up prices intraday.
Attachments
long term goal setting, vague
i must reveal my weaknesses. i must detach myself from my ego, take a step back and look at myself objectively. imagine that there are two me's. i must repair my mental operating machine/negativity/ego barrier/habits
one by one that do nothing to aid my evolution.
actual practice:imagine there are two me's. one is the actual participant of life and one is the observer of me.
weakness1 is putting too much relative weight on first-order consequences i.e i like being right b/c it strokes the ego(1st order consequence) but is contra-evolutionary/adaptive or profitable (adding on too trades) (2nd order, 3rd order) i.e.
"first-order consequences are the temptations that cost us what we really want, and sometimes they are barriers that stand in our way of getting what we want."
weakness2 is falling into the trap of being nice that intends evil. evil is anything contrary to evolution/adaptation. by being nice, i am asking the other person to be reciprocal, thus any open truthful discussion cannot be initiated. this does nothing in achieving my goal: revealing my weaknesses.
i must reveal my weaknesses. i must detach myself from my ego, take a step back and look at myself objectively. imagine that there are two me's. i must repair my mental operating machine/negativity/ego barrier/habits
one by one that do nothing to aid my evolution.
actual practice:imagine there are two me's. one is the actual participant of life and one is the observer of me.
weakness1 is putting too much relative weight on first-order consequences i.e i like being right b/c it strokes the ego(1st order consequence) but is contra-evolutionary/adaptive or profitable (adding on too trades) (2nd order, 3rd order) i.e.
"first-order consequences are the temptations that cost us what we really want, and sometimes they are barriers that stand in our way of getting what we want."
weakness2 is falling into the trap of being nice that intends evil. evil is anything contrary to evolution/adaptation. by being nice, i am asking the other person to be reciprocal, thus any open truthful discussion cannot be initiated. this does nothing in achieving my goal: revealing my weaknesses.
I play both cash and sng/mtts, but I often find that what I learn in mtts seem to translate best to trading. I appreciate the insight you gave, best of luck with your trading!
yesterday's range was wide providing opportunities both long and short. i did not catch a low risk high reward upmove; hl and hmy ended trading back above 10/08's support level while auq retraced back to pre breakout level, gfi stayed largely intact due to news.
compared to gdx,
stronger: hl, hmy
weaker: auq
neutral: iag, kgc
because i thought the upmove would be limited, i chose not to join the 2nd move after retracement. meanwhile i was able to observe trader J who got into long positions on hmy auq gfi. and id like to describe what i think he was thinking when took a long hmy (relatively strong stock) position.
this is trader J's thinking process
1.J was initially bearish; however he saw gdx recover and find support above its pre-breakdown level
2.J started shifting his view; on what basis?
a. his short position in another stock hl was not working for him even with a good entry price. there were many shorts but the stock no longer moved down.
b. large buyer on bid (edgx 20k shares) was seen and the shorts were unable to take him out.
c. there was also the yellen nomination which was also seen as a positive for gold.
why hmy long at his price/time was a good trade
normally our team enters positions by taking liquidity (so we pay fees)
a. however, even at this stage most participants were overcrowding a particular level but the bid didnt budge. risk was small
b. if direction turned, an upmove would be aided by short covering. this has a multiplier effect. reward was bigger
what i will learn from his trade: 1.upmoves aided by short coverings provide better reward but are seldom = contrarian thinking, if supported by logic, can have great rewards. 2.learn to see supply and demand which is a step up from reading direction through the tape.
stocks traded: hmy, auq, hl, iag, gfi
gld/gdx trade to follow
compared to gdx,
stronger: hl, hmy
weaker: auq
neutral: iag, kgc
because i thought the upmove would be limited, i chose not to join the 2nd move after retracement. meanwhile i was able to observe trader J who got into long positions on hmy auq gfi. and id like to describe what i think he was thinking when took a long hmy (relatively strong stock) position.
this is trader J's thinking process
1.J was initially bearish; however he saw gdx recover and find support above its pre-breakdown level
2.J started shifting his view; on what basis?
a. his short position in another stock hl was not working for him even with a good entry price. there were many shorts but the stock no longer moved down.
b. large buyer on bid (edgx 20k shares) was seen and the shorts were unable to take him out.
c. there was also the yellen nomination which was also seen as a positive for gold.
why hmy long at his price/time was a good trade
normally our team enters positions by taking liquidity (so we pay fees)
a. however, even at this stage most participants were overcrowding a particular level but the bid didnt budge. risk was small
b. if direction turned, an upmove would be aided by short covering. this has a multiplier effect. reward was bigger
what i will learn from his trade: 1.upmoves aided by short coverings provide better reward but are seldom = contrarian thinking, if supported by logic, can have great rewards. 2.learn to see supply and demand which is a step up from reading direction through the tape.
stocks traded: hmy, auq, hl, iag, gfi
gld/gdx trade to follow