$hmy trade
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
From poker player to Level 2/tape reading prop trader
- Thread starter modifiedtype
- Start date
0930 Trades: $hl, $hmy, $iag
Received permission starting this week to increase shares, limited to doing so when net positive ONLY.
number of shares determined by risk to reward, and current net pl
News: $gdx, largely unaffected by news
gdx range 0927's resistance and 0926's support
levels: 128.00 - 128.60
$hmy trade
long, 13:55pm, 500 shares, 3.425/exit 3.442, 500 shares through 14:10pm
prior to entry, made higher lows but couldn't sustain break above 3.44 (offers refreshing). exited when gdx failed to sustain breakout above 25.10 (short term resistance)
$hl trade
1) short, 12:15, 800 shares 3.14, exit 12:34pm avg price 3.1335
entered when gld failed to hold uptrend. this coincided with gdx fail to hold support 25.20 and thought gdx would retest its prior pivot at 25.05
exited just before gdx produced 2nd leg down
-> Not sure if the right play was to anticipate a 2nd leg down. next time, will try to let 1/3-1/4 position run if same conditions arise.
2) long, 12:55pm, 1400 shares, 3.1375, exit 13:18pm, avg price of 3.1425.
entered when gld made upmove to retest morning pivot level at 128.70 (failed). decided to enter long here rather than wait either the breakout or its failing to sustain upmove on 2nd leg due to strength/buyer presence in stocks traded including this one. prior to entry noticed throughout morning hl being unresponsive to gdx/gld down moves.
exited position when gdx/gld failed to break above
$iag
entered short 4.85 11am 400 shares/exited through 3.82 11:05am, 3.82 became resistance once again at 12:05-12:10
noticed that iag may be a leading indicator of large trends as it participates early compared to others. important thing is to not trade this in the middle of the range of non pivot points as volatility of 2 ticks often occurs. advantage is that iag will largely participate either up or down at critical points whereas hl or hmy will either be delayed or its move muted.
at 15:37 no move in gdx/gld witnessed rapid surge up, covered short for 1.5 tick loss and reentered short. be watchful for short covering appearing at the end of the day. it nearly cost be a net positive day
10/01 premarket
levels to watch for gld gdx
gld 125.00
gdx 25.00 broke earlier this morning. next support at 24.00 resistance 24.83
Received permission starting this week to increase shares, limited to doing so when net positive ONLY.
number of shares determined by risk to reward, and current net pl
News: $gdx, largely unaffected by news
gdx range 0927's resistance and 0926's support
levels: 128.00 - 128.60
$hmy trade
long, 13:55pm, 500 shares, 3.425/exit 3.442, 500 shares through 14:10pm
prior to entry, made higher lows but couldn't sustain break above 3.44 (offers refreshing). exited when gdx failed to sustain breakout above 25.10 (short term resistance)
$hl trade
1) short, 12:15, 800 shares 3.14, exit 12:34pm avg price 3.1335
entered when gld failed to hold uptrend. this coincided with gdx fail to hold support 25.20 and thought gdx would retest its prior pivot at 25.05
exited just before gdx produced 2nd leg down
-> Not sure if the right play was to anticipate a 2nd leg down. next time, will try to let 1/3-1/4 position run if same conditions arise.
2) long, 12:55pm, 1400 shares, 3.1375, exit 13:18pm, avg price of 3.1425.
entered when gld made upmove to retest morning pivot level at 128.70 (failed). decided to enter long here rather than wait either the breakout or its failing to sustain upmove on 2nd leg due to strength/buyer presence in stocks traded including this one. prior to entry noticed throughout morning hl being unresponsive to gdx/gld down moves.
exited position when gdx/gld failed to break above
$iag
entered short 4.85 11am 400 shares/exited through 3.82 11:05am, 3.82 became resistance once again at 12:05-12:10
noticed that iag may be a leading indicator of large trends as it participates early compared to others. important thing is to not trade this in the middle of the range of non pivot points as volatility of 2 ticks often occurs. advantage is that iag will largely participate either up or down at critical points whereas hl or hmy will either be delayed or its move muted.
at 15:37 no move in gdx/gld witnessed rapid surge up, covered short for 1.5 tick loss and reentered short. be watchful for short covering appearing at the end of the day. it nearly cost be a net positive day
10/01 premarket
levels to watch for gld gdx
gld 125.00
gdx 25.00 broke earlier this morning. next support at 24.00 resistance 24.83
Attachments
10/01 trade: $hmy, $hl, $iag
news: gold largely unaffected by govt shutdown news
gld and gdx massive selling in premarket
limited activity after futures pit close
Pnl below
limited selling during day session. that said, gld and gdx saw massive selling premarket.
gdx/gld charts behaving in sync; individual stocks however did not.
hmy: peaked above day high after gld/gdx put in big wick @ 1100am. after that, stock became largely unresponsive to any upmoves in both gld/gdx. i've never seen the ts read all red for such a long time. that said, the failed to break its day lw. range was tight and capped to 7 ticks.
% downswing of $gdx is being capped relative to $gld on recent trading days. implications: short side trade profit potential for individual stocks may be limited
watch consolidation during gdx/gld down moves.
points to consider:
1.approximate range and see it develop during early hours
2. see gld/gdx daily pivot points for likely points of bounce or b/o
3. differentiate price activity between pre and post futures pit close at 13:30
4. watch gld for potential gdx pivot points, enter trades based on gdx move ONLY (specifics below)
$iag
5. watch volume being traded on 1 to 3 min chart for institutional activity
$iag: footprint left by institution buy orders on multiple occasions
a.gld/gdx intial breakout upside ($iag participated in sync, then held this level for rest of day as support)
@ 11:24 (gdx break 1st floor, fail to break 2nd floor and thus retrace = over 100k volume transacted, no price movement post gdx 1st floor break, no participation in retracement)
c. 13:30 quick drop in gdx/gld : iag downmove delayed which means buyer seeking gdx/gld short term support for justification to hold level; when that failed, stock trades lower on WEAK volume
b.gld/gdx retest day low ($iag never retested
c. 14:03 reclaims aggression AS SOON AS gdx/gld levels are looking to hold
summary:
retrace to the downside largely capped and levels firmly held during futures downmove.
-> short positions dangerous, long positions still viable granted narrow trading range
remain flexible on both sides but enter only at top/bottom of range for shorts
watch for short selling trap laid by large institutional buyer. yesterday he let price move down significantly (low trade volume) during the downmove and then entered huge position at a favorable position. dont fight, join him
levels to consider:
gdx: 24.5 b/o and hold (buy signal), support at 24.00 resistance at 24.80, 24.90. 25.00
gld: 125.00, large gap to fill until 127.50
news: gold largely unaffected by govt shutdown news
gld and gdx massive selling in premarket
limited activity after futures pit close
Pnl below
limited selling during day session. that said, gld and gdx saw massive selling premarket.
gdx/gld charts behaving in sync; individual stocks however did not.
hmy: peaked above day high after gld/gdx put in big wick @ 1100am. after that, stock became largely unresponsive to any upmoves in both gld/gdx. i've never seen the ts read all red for such a long time. that said, the failed to break its day lw. range was tight and capped to 7 ticks.
% downswing of $gdx is being capped relative to $gld on recent trading days. implications: short side trade profit potential for individual stocks may be limited
watch consolidation during gdx/gld down moves.
points to consider:
1.approximate range and see it develop during early hours
2. see gld/gdx daily pivot points for likely points of bounce or b/o
3. differentiate price activity between pre and post futures pit close at 13:30
4. watch gld for potential gdx pivot points, enter trades based on gdx move ONLY (specifics below)
$iag
5. watch volume being traded on 1 to 3 min chart for institutional activity
$iag: footprint left by institution buy orders on multiple occasions
a.gld/gdx intial breakout upside ($iag participated in sync, then held this level for rest of day as support)
@ 11:24 (gdx break 1st floor, fail to break 2nd floor and thus retrace = over 100k volume transacted, no price movement post gdx 1st floor break, no participation in retracement)
c. 13:30 quick drop in gdx/gld : iag downmove delayed which means buyer seeking gdx/gld short term support for justification to hold level; when that failed, stock trades lower on WEAK volume
b.gld/gdx retest day low ($iag never retested
c. 14:03 reclaims aggression AS SOON AS gdx/gld levels are looking to hold
summary:
retrace to the downside largely capped and levels firmly held during futures downmove.
-> short positions dangerous, long positions still viable granted narrow trading range
remain flexible on both sides but enter only at top/bottom of range for shorts
watch for short selling trap laid by large institutional buyer. yesterday he let price move down significantly (low trade volume) during the downmove and then entered huge position at a favorable position. dont fight, join him
levels to consider:
gdx: 24.5 b/o and hold (buy signal), support at 24.00 resistance at 24.80, 24.90. 25.00
gld: 125.00, large gap to fill until 127.50
Attachments
mining 2nd tier stocks
hmy, hl, iag, gfi
Summary
AM gld early AM upmove trailed by gdx. however gdx behaves choppy (htf + day range still in formation)
PM gld higher level being sustained; gdx failed, broke below support 24.65, turned bearish at end.
= watch daily h/l discovery process
@ 13:30 gld (close of gold pit futures) retests highs and fails but never seeks value lower
@ 13:30, gdx fails to test highs, momentum consequently dictates downwards, gld short term resistance levels come into play to play on the short side for 2nd tier mining stocks.
Trades
Short Long Total
Win Trades 46 23 69
Lose Trades 13 11 24
Breakeven 2 5 7
$hl short (win)
3.12, 11:37, 900 shares/ exit 3.11 and 3.115, 11:42
point of entry: gdx 1st up leg breakdown, then retest, then fail
since gdx downmove is confirmed by failed retest, consider next level of support to be tested, if 1st and 2nd upmove were performed in relatively short time durations in between.
Initial breakdown is 2nd floor of gdx = retest of hl's initial balance, potential for lower seeking behavior
$hmy short (win)
3.32, 11"05, 500 shares / exit 3.31, 11"07
point of entry: gld 3rd up leg breakdown, gdx 2nd leg up breakdown
consider entering pending orders at subsequent levels below
for undershooting
first test of daily support @ 12"20 proved to be buyer hold then quick upmove area
$hmy long (loss)
3.30 12"03, 600 shares / exit 3.29 12"08
12:02 retest of support->resistance level
point of entry: 2nd retest (24.85), thought breakout to the upside was a possibility//
why it's a high risk trade: if 2nd retest fails, then quick reversion may take place, resulting in inability to exit at 3.29 and may have to hit out at 3.28 or 3.27//
$gfi short (win)
4.46 14"00 600 shares / exit 4.45 4.455, 14"09
point of entry: gdx major support (daily low) breakdown,
consider reentering trade at retest then fail, will likely provide better risk to reward ratio//
$iag (loss, win)
first trade entered on overshooting, that said, iag produced 3x range as prior day and 0930, extent of overextension cannot be predicted. without confirmation, it is high risk
short term momentum plays must be done quickly, once gdx has confirmed direction however, consider holding position for the long haul.
iag good for immediate 1-2 min momentum plays as stock is volatile//
considerations
-exits shall be quicker
-when initial balance is not yet discovered, consider decreasing volume
-risk less on initial moves for hmy gfi hl and risk more on "retest then fails" for better reward to risk
- consider holding insignificant # of shares (100) when in a trend for $iag
10/03 levels
gld 127.50(resistance)/125.83 125.35 (minor support)
gdx 24.63 (breakdown level) 24.30 (support)
hmy, hl, iag, gfi
Summary
AM gld early AM upmove trailed by gdx. however gdx behaves choppy (htf + day range still in formation)
PM gld higher level being sustained; gdx failed, broke below support 24.65, turned bearish at end.
= watch daily h/l discovery process
@ 13:30 gld (close of gold pit futures) retests highs and fails but never seeks value lower
@ 13:30, gdx fails to test highs, momentum consequently dictates downwards, gld short term resistance levels come into play to play on the short side for 2nd tier mining stocks.
Trades
Short Long Total
Win Trades 46 23 69
Lose Trades 13 11 24
Breakeven 2 5 7
$hl short (win)
3.12, 11:37, 900 shares/ exit 3.11 and 3.115, 11:42
point of entry: gdx 1st up leg breakdown, then retest, then fail
since gdx downmove is confirmed by failed retest, consider next level of support to be tested, if 1st and 2nd upmove were performed in relatively short time durations in between.
Initial breakdown is 2nd floor of gdx = retest of hl's initial balance, potential for lower seeking behavior
$hmy short (win)
3.32, 11"05, 500 shares / exit 3.31, 11"07
point of entry: gld 3rd up leg breakdown, gdx 2nd leg up breakdown
consider entering pending orders at subsequent levels below
for undershooting
first test of daily support @ 12"20 proved to be buyer hold then quick upmove area
$hmy long (loss)
3.30 12"03, 600 shares / exit 3.29 12"08
12:02 retest of support->resistance level
point of entry: 2nd retest (24.85), thought breakout to the upside was a possibility//
why it's a high risk trade: if 2nd retest fails, then quick reversion may take place, resulting in inability to exit at 3.29 and may have to hit out at 3.28 or 3.27//
$gfi short (win)
4.46 14"00 600 shares / exit 4.45 4.455, 14"09
point of entry: gdx major support (daily low) breakdown,
consider reentering trade at retest then fail, will likely provide better risk to reward ratio//
$iag (loss, win)
first trade entered on overshooting, that said, iag produced 3x range as prior day and 0930, extent of overextension cannot be predicted. without confirmation, it is high risk
short term momentum plays must be done quickly, once gdx has confirmed direction however, consider holding position for the long haul.
iag good for immediate 1-2 min momentum plays as stock is volatile//
considerations
-exits shall be quicker
-when initial balance is not yet discovered, consider decreasing volume
-risk less on initial moves for hmy gfi hl and risk more on "retest then fails" for better reward to risk
- consider holding insignificant # of shares (100) when in a trend for $iag
10/03 levels
gld 127.50(resistance)/125.83 125.35 (minor support)
gdx 24.63 (breakdown level) 24.30 (support)
Attachments
10/03 trade PnL, -$1.44
Most stocks traded within 1-2 ticks throughout the afternoon after GLD had spike up, however, GDX surge was limited.
Stocks traded: IAG, HMY, HL, GFI
Will look to see if stocks continue to trade in a narrow range, if so will look to add liquidity/receive rebates.
Things to consider: negative turned to break even day by exceeding allowed number of shares in the AM. will look to self-monitor behavior more often.
Most stocks traded within 1-2 ticks throughout the afternoon after GLD had spike up, however, GDX surge was limited.
Stocks traded: IAG, HMY, HL, GFI
Will look to see if stocks continue to trade in a narrow range, if so will look to add liquidity/receive rebates.
Things to consider: negative turned to break even day by exceeding allowed number of shares in the AM. will look to self-monitor behavior more often.
Attachments
Symbols traded: HL, HMY, GFI
HL limited trades. limited losses
GFI limited tradeds. limited profits (4.40 becomes weekly support )
HMY finished day off stronger. (3.21 becomes weekly support)
Continue to see basket buy of gdx stocks on gld support areas.
Cant break below 3.21
if bullish: prefer to see a revisit to 3.25, see it hold, and then enter on gdx/gld confirmed trend. on friday, we saw buyer allow downtrend, accumulate when gld and gdx found support, and force short cover once gld and gdx confirmed bullish trend at its 2nd leg.
play on long side might provide better risk to reward if same conditions (buyer activity, limited seller activity, technical support at 3.21/3.24-25
gdx initial break above 24.30, and has to get through high volume node @ 24.40. if so, then long
OR
tight range day again watch for any premarket news or activity
gld 126.17 / 127.00/ 127.50
weekly performance of HL and HMY vs GDX (Relative Strength)
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
HL limited trades. limited losses
GFI limited tradeds. limited profits (4.40 becomes weekly support )
HMY finished day off stronger. (3.21 becomes weekly support)
Continue to see basket buy of gdx stocks on gld support areas.
Cant break below 3.21
if bullish: prefer to see a revisit to 3.25, see it hold, and then enter on gdx/gld confirmed trend. on friday, we saw buyer allow downtrend, accumulate when gld and gdx found support, and force short cover once gld and gdx confirmed bullish trend at its 2nd leg.
play on long side might provide better risk to reward if same conditions (buyer activity, limited seller activity, technical support at 3.21/3.24-25
gdx initial break above 24.30, and has to get through high volume node @ 24.40. if so, then long
OR
tight range day again watch for any premarket news or activity
gld 126.17 / 127.00/ 127.50
weekly performance of HL and HMY vs GDX (Relative Strength)
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Attachments
Bit of an off topic question: curious if you focused on ring games or sng/mtt games during your poker days?
10/07 PnL. Performance summary to follow
News & Summary:
gdx outperforms gld -> consider this as possible signal of change in relative strength between the two
from 1400, when gld found support above 127.41 (large wick just before 1200), gdx founds bids and ended day strong
both form upwards triangle pattern on 1 minute chart
Stocks Traded: GFI, AUQ, HMY, IAG
Looking back at previous day notes, HMY had actually found a level of support noted (3.21) just prior to moving up 8 ticks (strongest upmove out of tier 2 gold stocks). This was the first time witnessing such strong sustainable upmoves (which happened 30-40 min prior to closing bell)
HMY
next resistance at 3.36,then gap,3.38, needs to get above 3.38 and sustain above 3.45 for confirmed trend reversal. see if any of these levels act strong as resistance
GFI
weak seller dictating much of duration meanwhile, buyer forcing short cover
buyer entries
1035 1123 1205 1230 1430
gdx leveling/finding support/accumulation stage
leaving office more to follow.
News & Summary:
gdx outperforms gld -> consider this as possible signal of change in relative strength between the two
from 1400, when gld found support above 127.41 (large wick just before 1200), gdx founds bids and ended day strong
both form upwards triangle pattern on 1 minute chart
Stocks Traded: GFI, AUQ, HMY, IAG
Looking back at previous day notes, HMY had actually found a level of support noted (3.21) just prior to moving up 8 ticks (strongest upmove out of tier 2 gold stocks). This was the first time witnessing such strong sustainable upmoves (which happened 30-40 min prior to closing bell)
HMY
next resistance at 3.36,then gap,3.38, needs to get above 3.38 and sustain above 3.45 for confirmed trend reversal. see if any of these levels act strong as resistance
GFI
weak seller dictating much of duration meanwhile, buyer forcing short cover
buyer entries
1035 1123 1205 1230 1430
gdx leveling/finding support/accumulation stage
leaving office more to follow.