You are kind @.sigma I hope I can keep the slope positive and the account intact, and the blog worth reading.
From Micros to Millions: 2% per day
- Thread starter sstheo
- Start date
You are kind @.sigma I hope I can keep the slope positive and the account intact, and the blog worth reading.
Haha. I purchased a new kevlar vest before posting my first entry. I knew what was coming; this is my third excursion into journaling on ET.
@Millionaire I think the outlier years you mention are like home runs. I am going to attempt to change your mind with lots of no-algo, no-HFT simple raw base hits. I am not a huge baseball fan, but I am a big fan of great analogies.
Ty Cobb vs. Ted Williams: Who is the greatest hitter of all time?
Ty Cobb spent most of his 22 seasons (1905 to 1927) with the Detroit Tigers. 93 years after he was done playing, he still holds the highest-ever MLB career Batting Average (BA) of .366. He is the greatest hitter of all-time as a percentage of lifetime at-bats. He hit over .400 for three seasons. Wow.
But there is another hitter with an even more impressive stat (in my opinion), and that is 21-season (1939 to 1960) Boston Red Sox' Ted Williams. 60 years after his career ended, Ted still holds the MLB's highest career record for On-Base Percentage (OBP) of .482. In other words, he got on-base more than any other MLB player in history. How did he do it? Of course he had one of the highest ever BA's at .344, but on top of that, he knew when NOT to take the pitch and let the pitcher fail by giving four bad pitches and getting on-base via a walk. The OBP stat includes the walks.
Yes, the BA is the more commonly used stat, but I think the OBP is slightly more important, as the higher-OBP player is more likely to get on base - a prerequisite to crossing the home plate (and hopefully wining the game). So Ted slightly edges out Ty in my book.
Now for the trading fun:
I need to get on base! I need to have winning trades to win the game and the season.
So how is my BA? Am I hitting the ball? Or am I getting three strikes and going back to the dugout empty handed? Do I see my entries clearly, and am I executing with perfection?
And how is my OBP? Am I going to "swing" at most everything, or will I be let those fake-out pitches go by? I must be very selective. Missing a bad pitch - staying flat - might just be the better move in many cases!
While homeruns are great, and big market moves are great, I don't think I need an "outlier year." I propose that a bunch of consistent well-selected base hits can help me win this Trading game. By focusing on high-probability trades, no matter how small, at the end of the day (the game) and the next 12 months (the season) I should have a nice pile of singles, doubles, triples, and maybe even home runs. They are all additive and are getting me around the diamond and back home.
Thoughts on OBP vs BA. https://bleacherreport.com/articles...ge-vs-batting-average-which-is-more-important
If you haven't back-tested your entries, how do you know they are "high probability" ?
From live trading results?
I would be interested in what the OP's win percentage actually is so far from all the trades taken so far.
hitting the daily wins is not that hard. it's when to stop when you hit the intraday losing streak that's the hard part. when you lose, can you stop? or the fact that your win streak will push you mentally to keep trading?
that's where my biggest losses come from..just can't stop trading after losing streak. it's not even the size to be honest with you.
that's where my biggest losses come from..just can't stop trading after losing streak. it's not even the size to be honest with you.
Fair enough. What is his sample size ? (i.e. # of trades, # of days)
He's gotta be doing 65-75% I would say.
(Sorry Sstheo, had to address this one here...)
I am an eternal student pilot, was *this close* to getting my Private certification. But life got in the way. After all this time, and with my recent bouts with kidney stones and age, best I can prolly ever get now is a Sport certificate. But yeah, the reason I got into it when young was to get to the ATP level and fly for a major.
And I ALWAYS loved that sense of change from one environment to another. Sitting on a shitty tarmac in putrid weather, and a few minutes later be in a whole different world of peace and sunshine? It appeals to me. I love turbulence, too! Butterflies!
Some are asking about stats.
The stats are messed because the Multicharts "Trade Summary" doesn't have a way to incorporate fees for discretionary trades.
Nevertheless, I believe this is a fair representation of my trading. I will be more granular going forward. Still working on a decent trade blotter. This appears to closely match my spreadsheet:
Notes:
1) In case anyone thinks I am a perma-bear, let my 170 longs and 131 shorts speak for themselves.
2) "Contracts" are counted twice, once at entry and once at exit. The correct number is around 300 so far in 6 days.
3) While this says 89% profitable, my historical win rate is about 80%. As I tighten my stops a bit more, the current 89% rate will drop for sure.
4) My emergency stop is huge at about $50 now on the micros (10 S&P points), I also get out of many trades as soon as I feel the "edge" is gone. My average loss so far is about $27. I will be setting my stop much tighter (probably $20, like before) and "taking my medicine." There are many traders who get married to trades, and indeed I am susceptible as well. The only solution is to close things out once the sentiment is clearly going the opposite way and re-assess and maybe enter again at a better price - if at all. We all must "live to trade another day."
5) Between longs and shorts, my average win/average loss is just .28. This is about 4:1 Risk to Reward. With my average win just over 1/4 the size of the average loss, my R:R is totally upside down compared to the way most traders like to trade. But it works for me only because of my average win rate.
More later.
The stats are messed because the Multicharts "Trade Summary" doesn't have a way to incorporate fees for discretionary trades.
Nevertheless, I believe this is a fair representation of my trading. I will be more granular going forward. Still working on a decent trade blotter. This appears to closely match my spreadsheet:
Notes:
1) In case anyone thinks I am a perma-bear, let my 170 longs and 131 shorts speak for themselves.
2) "Contracts" are counted twice, once at entry and once at exit. The correct number is around 300 so far in 6 days.
3) While this says 89% profitable, my historical win rate is about 80%. As I tighten my stops a bit more, the current 89% rate will drop for sure.
4) My emergency stop is huge at about $50 now on the micros (10 S&P points), I also get out of many trades as soon as I feel the "edge" is gone. My average loss so far is about $27. I will be setting my stop much tighter (probably $20, like before) and "taking my medicine." There are many traders who get married to trades, and indeed I am susceptible as well. The only solution is to close things out once the sentiment is clearly going the opposite way and re-assess and maybe enter again at a better price - if at all. We all must "live to trade another day."
5) Between longs and shorts, my average win/average loss is just .28. This is about 4:1 Risk to Reward. With my average win just over 1/4 the size of the average loss, my R:R is totally upside down compared to the way most traders like to trade. But it works for me only because of my average win rate.
More later.
It is not clear to whom your posting was addressed, but I think it was also directed to me, so I would like to react.
I don't agree with your comment. People who have constructive criticism should be accepted as their only aim is to show the weak points in the strategy. Pointing out these weak points enables OP to study and improve his system. So it is an attempt to help OP. It would be different if the criticism would be given without any logical and honest explanation about the problem. So I will continue to point tot he weak points except if the OP does not want this.
I would be personally happy if people would make remarks on my strategy if the remarks are formulated politely and with a decent explanation why there is a weak point in the strategy. These remarks could draw my attention to things I did not see or did no understand. It would be a potential improvement from my strategy.
People who cannot accept constructive criticism can never learn anything new and as trader they have another weak point that is very bad: their ego is too big and blocks all advice, even if it could be a golden nugget.