From $1000 to ? Trading SPX Weeklys in my Roth

[Overnight]

You're probably right about the full blown panic, but it won't take long for people to realize the fatality rate is significantly lower than what the initial numbers were showing, comparable to the flu at .1%. The fed will add a few notches to their good ol' balance sheet and pump the markets up. They'll start cutting checks to everyone for rent support and add liquidity to the markets directly or indirectly. Businesses will open back up and things will return back to normal, just 50% off highs. Eventually a vaccine will come out but I think people will calm down far before that happens.

Fatality rate DOES NOT MATTER. It is the number of new infections that matters to the markets.

 

[Trade Theory]

I guess I'm looking past that. New infections will fuel the panic then fatality rate will calm them down. The economic impact will be enormous either way.

 

[Adam777]

I guess I'm looking past that. New infections will fuel the panic then fatality rate will calm them down. The economic impact will be enormous either way.

Here's the numbers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[.sigma]

TradeTheory,

why did you open 2 separate bear put spreads in the $SPY? its almost like a long put condor

 

[Trade Theory]

TradeTheory,

why did you open 2 separate bear put spreads in the $SPY? its almost like a long put condor

My mindset here was to add some bearish trades to offset what I paid for on the SPX call butterfly. I added one put spread on the open then 2 hours later SPY popped up a bit. I figured the pop would be short lived so I wanted one other put spread at a higher price. I was thinking of them as 2 separate trades.

Trade 14 Closed:
tIP SOLD -1 VERTICAL SPY 100 20 MAR 20 250/248 PUT @1.83 CBOE

+$94.98

Trade 17 Open:
BOT +1 BUTTERFLY SPY 100 (Weeklys) 23 MAR 20 215/210/202 PUT @.02 CBOE

This one is a broken wing butterfly expiring on Monday, slightly wider leaving me with $302 of risk total. Thought process is if we hit limit down 5% or 7% on Monday, this fly will be centered and worth quite a bit. If we rally, expires worthless and I'm out $2 premium. If we absolutely tank over the weekend 10% percent, I'll likely lose a little money on the trade.

Starting Balance: $1001.75
Current Balance: $1786.55
Cumulative PnL: $784.8 = Account up 78.34%

 

[Trade Theory]

Can't forget this gem: Trade 12 dead, -$122.08

Starting Balance: $1001.75
Current Balance: $1664.47
Cumulative PnL: $662.72 = Account up 66.16%

 

[Trade Theory]

Small win on trade 17: +$33.84

SOLD -1 BUTTERFLY SPY 100 (Weeklys) 23 MAR 20 215/210/202 PUT @.40 CBOE
+$33.84

Starting Balance: $1001.75
Current Balance: $1698.31
Cumulative PnL: $696.56 = Account up 69.53%

 

[Adam777]

IV30 is about to cross HV. Does this mean you stop your flies for a while?

 

[traider]

Small win on trade 17: +$33.84
View attachment 222880
SOLD -1 BUTTERFLY SPY 100 (Weeklys) 23 MAR 20 215/210/202 PUT @.40 CBOE
+$33.84

Starting Balance: $1001.75
Current Balance: $1698.31
Cumulative PnL: $696.56 = Account up 69.53%

Why are you trading so little size when your ROC is so high? What am I missing?

 

[Trade Theory]

Why are you trading so little size when your ROC is so high? What am I missing?

Trading in this account is a way to challenge myself and work on improving strategies that have already proven to be successful. The alluring thing about trading the S&Ps is it’s easy to scale up. That same trade could have been done 10x the size by trading a 1 lot in the SPX. Not to mention it’s the most liquid product in the market bar none. I have my own motives for making only this account public, but just about every trade I place here is being replicated either in larger size or quantity in my other accounts.