Today’s sharp 2.2% SPX decline wasn’t a surprise for those who looked closely at the options metrics after Friday’s spot price fakeout. Ahead of the long weekend, market participants priced in the downside with both short- and long-term options.
AFTER FRIDAY CLOSE:
Put options were nearly twice as expensive as calls at equivalent Expected Move distances before Tuesday's open. The price have a fake-out at friday.
AT TODAY CLOSE:
While today’s drop has led to some call skew on weekly options, suggesting a short-term rebound, the long-term bearish sentiment remains intact. Key unemployment data this week will be crucial for the market’s next move.
Conclusion: Always check the option pricing skew before any moves.
AFTER FRIDAY CLOSE:
Put options were nearly twice as expensive as calls at equivalent Expected Move distances before Tuesday's open. The price have a fake-out at friday.
AT TODAY CLOSE:
While today’s drop has led to some call skew on weekly options, suggesting a short-term rebound, the long-term bearish sentiment remains intact. Key unemployment data this week will be crucial for the market’s next move.
Conclusion: Always check the option pricing skew before any moves.
