Frexit

vanzandt said:
She won right? (advancing to run-off) At least thats what Reuters and Bloomberg are saying.
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"Won" would be a fair statement if she had gotten over 50% of the votes today. She did about as well as the other 3 within the margin of error :) I guess we shall see on May 7th.

PS. The bookies seem to favor Macron by a lot, which makes me want to go long Le Pen.
 
sle said:
"Won" would be a fair statement if she had gotten over 50% of the votes today. She did about as well as the other 3 within the margin of error :) I guess we shall see on May 7th.

PS. The bookies seem to favor Macron by a lot, which makes me want to go long Le Pen.
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Just like Clinton was leading in the poll right up to the day of the election.:sneaky:
 
ironchef said:
Just like Clinton was leading in the poll right up to the day of the election.:sneaky:
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Sort-of, yeah. There are serious differences between the two political systems and because of that there is a lesser expectation of an upset (IMHO, I am not a political analyst by any means). But also I think the consequences of Le Pen winning might be more serious and if I see good risk-reward in the betting markets, I'll totally pick some up.
 
Here4money said:
Seems like the top two head to head on the 7th?
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Nope, last time a FN candidate, Marine le Pen's father actually, made it to the final second round in french presidential elections, he actually got a smaller percentage of votes than in the first round.
Can't rule out a major terrorist disaster in France to tip the balance more in Le pen's favour, but otherwise the vote leaves very little suspense, with large difference between both candidates in surveys, not comparable to US and Brexit votes.
Interesting to see a young former investment banker taking the reins in France, we'll see if the general mentality gets less anti finance - I don't hold too high hopes though.
 
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vanzandt said:
Back to the election here.... which candidate (front runner) would be defined as the most polar opposite to Trump?
My prediction is that's the one thats going to win. It may have been a different story 6 months ago...but I think the young people and old alike will vote for whoever represents everything anti-Trump. I guess that means the EU will stay the EU. Several long plays on this. The May 19th $24 calls on EWQ @ $2.60 might be the ticket.
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Those calls $3.90 today. 50%
 
Not sure how that caught anyone off guard today, it was literally almost impossible that election was going to end any other way than a run off, and now people are all going to flip too Macron, im short some ES today from 2371 thinking the market will lose some steam in the next couple days as reality sets in that this didnt change anything. Im small right now but willing to add all a couple times on the way to the top.

If we set new highs then I will have to re-evaluate. But with summer coming up, and an upcoming government shutdown based on the budget i dont see how we set new highs this summer, Unless you still believe that the dysfunctional idiots running our government are somehow going to figure out meaningful tax reform when they will have to struggle just to pass a budget.
 
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