Free money in FX: Turkish Lira

[Genevian Speculator]

The Turkish Lira is up for another massive tank in the near to midterm future because
A) the infection curve looks very steep, even steeper then that of Italy.
B) Turkey is massively dependent on tourism and
C) could be at war at any moment
D) is already financially instable, before joblosses hit
E) to ensure liquidity of their banking system they will have to print EVEN MORE money
F) their real estate market bubble is on the edge of bursting, as it was already before Corona.
It's a no brainer to me.

 

[TommyR]

this is where you need sales skills it's their thing. no.

 

[Genevian Speculator]

this is where you need sales skills it's their thing. no.

????

 

[Nighthawk]

The Turkish Lira is up for another massive tank in the near to midterm future because
A) the infection curve looks very steep, even steeper then that of Italy.
B) Turkey is massively dependent on tourism and
C) could be at war at any moment
D) is already financially instable, before joblosses hit
E) to ensure liquidity of their banking system they will have to print EVEN MORE money
F) their real estate market bubble is on the edge of bursting, as it was already before Corona.
It's a no brainer to me.

1) Turkey generated $31.5 billion from the tourism industry in 2015. The sector's direct contribution to Turkey's GDP was 6.2% in 2015.

2) Where do you "see" the steeper infection curve?

3) At war with whom? Russia and Turkey patrol Idlib now together.
4) Financially instable? Current account deficit is actually improving

5) Real estate market

Summary:

Quite contrary to orthodox monetary theory, Erdogan did instinctively the right thing and forced the central bank to cut interest rates at the expense of the Turkish Lira as foreign investors demanded a higher interest rate risk premium. Especially since December last year when inflation shot over STIR, the Turkish Lira has been sold off. Yet, the cheaper currency acts undoubtedly as a stabilizing factor for Turkey export industry which was booming before corona.

Otherwise, your arguments above are pretty weak....

I don´t want to predict TRY movements. Instead, playing it technically with risk/reward defined approach.

 

[simmonjoshua]

What is the current status of the Turkish Lira? I meant what is the trend? I have heard that the demand was very low and also due to the weakness, some of the FX brokers have removed the trading of TRY from their platform. Did you guys hear the same?

 

[Nobert]

Turkish Lira? I meant what is the trend?

You need to learn the basics of TA first.

 

[algoseek]

The Turkish Lira is up for another massive tank in the near to midterm future because
A) the infection curve looks very steep, even steeper then that of Italy.
B) Turkey is massively dependent on tourism and
C) could be at war at any moment
D) is already financially instable, before joblosses hit
E) to ensure liquidity of their banking system they will have to print EVEN MORE money
F) their real estate market bubble is on the edge of bursting, as it was already before Corona.
It's a no brainer to me.

I wish it were that simple.

 

[maxinger]

FREE MONEY ?!?!?!?!!?

you need to trade it then you will know why many traders don't trade exotic FX no matter how free the money it is.

 

[Coner1980]

With which currency Turkish Lira is best to start trading? Is it good to pair with USD?

 

[dealmaker]

Hedge Fund Looks for Bottom in Turkish Lira (Bloomberg)
Hedge fund manager Peter Kisler is looking to this week’s Turkish central-bank meeting for a signal to start buying the lira. The question is whether Turkey will let its currency weaken further or hike rates to defend it, said North Asset Management’s Kisler. The London-based investor sold all its Turkish assets before capital outflows started accelerating in March, fueling the lira’s decline to a record against the dollar.