FREE ES Trading Strategy that works

Reaper

You're not understanding the system rules

There are two (2) parts to the signal. First the signal line crosses (thats why its called "first cross"), then the histo confirms.

Histogram confirms when it moves contrary first, then back towards the signal (in this case it is a sell) so the histogram "points up" first, then crosses back down. As it does so (in theory) "momentum" should come into the market, in the direction of the entry. All this is happening in front (to the left) of the first vertical line

Confirmation of the entry can happen right away as it does with the sell example in the chart, or it can take a while (for the histogram) to confirm the move. You have to be patient.

Other considerations;

1.) "Zero line rejection" where the histogram looks like it is going to confirm, but then it reverses right around the zero line.

2.) To really trade this you have to have a way of filtering the signals. Thats why the EMAs are there. Personally I would be using other filters but hey thats the OP's style. To each his own.

3.) In my opinion to get a tight entry, you might have to front run the signal ocaisonally especially in slow markets like today. If you have experience and can read the volume it isn't too hard to make this work. Newbies may have problems watching the histo oscillate back and forth and as always they will probably be late entering

Actually the system has a lot of nuance to it. A person could learn a lot trading it (if you were observant).

Pretty generous Don

Good luck to you

Stevesbg
 
Quote from Reaper Rampant:

DonKee,

In your picture with your OP, are your labels at you vertical markers backwards? (Sell low, buy higher?) Am I missing something?

Thanks!

Steve has a good explanation in his post above.

Here is a magnified look at 1 signal from today (it was kinda choppy). Hopefully looking at just 1 signal will clear things up.
 

Attachments

Donkee,

Thanks for posting a very clear chart.

As mentioned by Steve, is it possible to "front run" the signal? Also, Can you describe exactly how you enter the trade and what kind of order will you use?

Regards.

Holt
 
Quote from DonKee:

No, IB doesn't have tick charts.

install free NinjaTrader, and select ticks in menu. or you can use range bars, volume bars, too. All this works even in IB just fine.

Nevertheless, note that IB datafeed is 0.2-0.3 sec. snapshots and not precise ticks. Still, sometimes it works even better, especially in the moments when market is really crazy, the regular datafeeds (like TS, for example) could experience delays very often, by the way. not in IB case, because the snapshots are generated on the IB side and no need to transmit/process zillion ticks per second in "moments of truth" :).
 
Quote from Chuck Krug:
What's the closests to a 1000 tick chart? 3 mins?

the average ratio continuously shifts and depends on the market conditions.
you may want to compare the time marks in different type of charts, to find some average correlation.

tick bars are not time-driven at all.

after price changes 1000 times, the next bar forms, and you can see not equidistant time marks in axis of T, under each bar.

tick charts and volume charts are usually better for scalping
 
Quote from DonKee:

I learned it from LBR, but adopted it for me and the current markets

Who or what is LBR?

2) 9ema and 34 ema

Why 9 and 34? Why not 10 and 33? or 11 and 35?

4) My bars are basically heiken-ashi but it's not important.

HA bars usually get people in trouble because they don't show you the actual price.


Entry:

When the 16 line crosses zero for the first time <b>(1st cross)</b> you will enter when the 3-10 histogram pulls back on the opposite side of the 0 line and then turns back toward the 16 line (main trend).

So are you entering on the first tick of the candle after the 3-10 histogram turns back toward the 16 line?

Target: 2 points (of course you can have runners, etc. It's up to you).

That's non-specific. No offense but it sounds scammy. A lot of "gurus" give "rules" like that so that they can make it look like it worked after the fact. There are plenty of threads all over this forum where this is demonstrated.


Stop: 2 points (Yea, it's tight. Widen it up a little if you want)

See above.

If you're going to give a system, you need exact, unwavering rules. If the rules can change depending on conditions, then you need to specify exactly what parameters cause the rules to change and a specific set of values they change to, and not "sometimes you can change your stops if you feel like it."

Anyone back or forward tested this yet?
 
Quote from DonKee:
<b>This is the way I trade it.</b> You can let us all know if you are having success in other markets or other time frames.

<b>Do whatever works for YOU. </b>
Hey DonKee,

I just spent the weekend analyzing this indicator and figuring-out why it works when it does, and what the problem is when it doesn't.

Thanks for the information and for sharing it on ET.
***
Interestingly enough, this guy came a lot closer to the truth than he might have realized.

Quote from dennisb:

If it fails consistently it also works ;)

Good trading.
 
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