FREE ES Trading Strategy that works

Quote from WooDoo:

the truth is that this simple strategy does not work. Have tested it with about last 10 days data on ES, NQ, YM futures. comissions and slippage will eat all you profit.
If this system based on some kind of intuition or ezoteric knowledge, you can use any other indicator for confirmation of your decisions.
Some notes about this "simple strategy" if somebody will risk to play around it.. I would not use it in the long run.

1. Suprisingly, Macd with SMA works better than EMA's or even other now days sophisticated MA,s
2. Using SMA in MACD formula and 500 or 1000 tick time frames gives you a chance to stay at least on zero loss/profit if you will be lucky enough (im not sure about this in the long run)
3. This system absolutely useles for shorting, at least at current market conditions
4. stops 2 and 2 gives you some theoretical profit, but PT at 10 or about 1 percent is better. There are some more loss/profit target combinations, for example tight 0.005 percent stop and 0.3 profit target,

Below is 10 days simulated ES, NQ, YM futures basket trading report, with 2/2 stops and raw code (use at your own risk:).

Sorry for pure english
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A couple of comments that might help you out in your search for profits.

1) It has been stated multiple times, in this thread, this is not a system

2) 10 days is never going to be enough time to backtest a system nor come to any conclusions regarding its' potential for profits

Part of becoming a succesful and profitable trader is finding a methodology that fits your temperment, your availability to trade, and your own risk/reward comfort levels.

I hope you are sucessful in your journey.
 
This is a good setup to trade with. It can often be seen in different markets, in all timeframes. Here is the current crude daily chart, there is an "Anti" short in the first trading day of July, and a "First Cross" short is now setting up.

One way to weed out the bad trade is to pay attention to the 20 EMA. In fact, if we were to follow LBR's setup closely, we'd need to see price stalls at 20 EMA area. That is how I understand it.

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Quote from HooLee:

This is a good setup to trade with. It can often be seen in different markets, in all timeframes. Here is the current crude daily chart, there is an "Anti" short in the first trading day of July, and a "First Cross" short is now setting up.

One way to weed out the bad trade is to pay attention to the 20 EMA. In fact, if we were to follow LBR's setup closely, we'd need to see price stalls at 20 EMA area. That is how I understand it.
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Nice catch on the crude.

While the ES has been in narrow ranges, I've been having a lot of success trading the Euro. The moves can be pretty quick and the volatility is higher, but I just adjust by stepping down size.
 
Quote from WooDoo:

the truth is that this simple strategy does not work. Have tested it with about last 10 days data on ES, NQ, YM futures. comissions and slippage will eat all you profit.
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All you tested was !0 days ? You are joking, aren't you ?
 
Quote from Hombre:

All you tested was !0 days ? You are joking, aren't you ?
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You are right. I usualy look at least for 500 trades for optimization. Unfortunately, I have no longer term ES NQ YM tick by tick database. !0 days- it is only 46 trades. Moreover, last week was not very typical, I think. I'm still watching DoonKee systems performance, have added Wilders averages for trend confirmations, it apaears, that Wilders MA works better, than sma or ema.
Will post this week out of sample trade report later.
 
Quote from WooDoo:

You are right. I usualy look at least for 500 trades for optimization. Unfortunately, I have no longer term ES NQ YM tick by tick database. !0 days- it is only 46 trades. Moreover, last week was not very typical, I think. I'm still watching DoonKee systems performance, have added Wilders averages for trend confirmations, it apaears, that Wilders MA works better, than sma or ema.
Will post this week out of sample trade report later.
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It would be great if you could figure out a way to filter the entries so you are entering on the first pull-back of a new swing, rather than entering on pull-backs when the trend has been ongoing for an extended period and is exhausting itself.

The difficulty in programing that aspect of the entry is one reason why the parameters might need to be monitored visually by the trader.

Looking forward to your progress. Good luck with it.
 
Quote from WooDoo:

You are right. I usualy look at least for 500 trades for optimization. Unfortunately, I have no longer term ES NQ YM tick by tick database. !0 days- it is only 46 trades. Moreover, last week was not very typical, I think. I'm still watching DoonKee systems performance, have added Wilders averages for trend confirmations, it apaears, that Wilders MA works better, than sma or ema.
Will post this week out of sample trade report later.
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Now I see you are seriously working on it.You will need to test about 36 calendar days of ES to get reasonable sample size.
While you at it, try to find and define reversal patterns with your indicators.
 
You all need to understand that mechanical systems based on TA using indicators DO NOT WORK in a long run

one can optimize the parameters Stops and PT even include BE or scratch even walk forward test it

in a long run it will all fall apart

Just apply this strategy to NQ and YM see how robust it is

after all the market is not made of moving averages and indicators those are only a mathematical formulas that mean nothing
 
Quote from eurolinux:

You all need to understand that mechanical systems based on TA using indicators DO NOT WORK in a long run

one can optimize the parameters Stops and PT even include BE or scratch even walk forward test it

in a long run it will all fall apart
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Do you know why it will all fall apart ? Once you know that , life gets much easier.
 
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