FREE ES Trading Strategy that works
- Thread starter DonKee
- Start date
Yes, that was a good trade(9:40). But what about the signal that followed at 10:51(1000 tick using Ninjatrader) that did not work? What are you using as filters? The 9/34 EMA's & HH/ LL does not work. Are you using a higher time frame to only trade in that direction or something else? I've manually backtested the last several months & can't show a profit using various money mgmt techniques. Have you traded this with real money & shown consistent monthly profits?
Thanks, appreciate your inputs & sharing! Looked at this method in 06 & could not get it to work then, am I missing something?
Thanks, appreciate your inputs & sharing! Looked at this method in 06 & could not get it to work then, am I missing something?
10:51 was a quick loser for me. You will have losers. I'm a few ticks off of break even with these signals today.
If you keep good records, you will see a pattern where these work. You will also see that the good signals work almost immediately.
I cannot stress enough, the pattern that the 3-10-16 is describing must be watched (see previous post). Remember, this is supposed to give you a good shot of entering on the first pull-back against a new swing trend. If you just follow blindly, without watching for the pattern on your chart, you won't be happy.
Look at 9:47. Was that a good trade to take, long? No, it wasn't any kind of a pull-back in an uptrend, yet the 16 line did cross from negative to positive. I would urge everyone to review the signals that don't work. You'll see that many of those bad signals were not describing the first pull-back in a new swing trend. That is one reason why you cannot back test this. You must make sure it is describing the price action that you are looking for in a successful trade.
I'm not concerned with having a big day (like yesterday) every day. It won't happen. Your equity curve should look like a lot of chopping around with spurts higher once or twice each week.
I have an entry question. If the tick bar that generates the entry signal has already moved away from the reaction low (for a buy) quite a bit do you chase the price to enter or use a limit order and only take the trade if you can get a good price or just scratch the trade?
In otherwords, considering price action at the signal, what action would make you scratch a trade?
Thanks for sharing this plan, Don.
In otherwords, considering price action at the signal, what action would make you scratch a trade?
Thanks for sharing this plan, Don.
Quote from BigBubba:
my MACD has a histogram, and 2 MA's.. how do i correct it?
And Thanks DonKee
Couple of things:
The canned MACD on TS plots an MACD line, which you can eliminate by putting 2 slashes // in front of Plot1( MyMACD, "MACD" ) under "edit easy language for MACD".
You want your 3/10/16 to be a SMA and not an EMA. Remember, that 3-10 histogram should be 3sma minus 10sma. The 16 line is a 16 period sma of the 3sma minus 10sma That's how I use it.
I find the tick bar on the trigger bar is rarely a big bar, more than 2 full points. Look at all of the 1000 tick bars today, very few were over 2 points. As I said previously, I have a tick countdown next to the current bar. When we get below 100 and we are getting a trigger, I will enter. I will definitely use 2.5 or 3.0 stops if that puts me beyond little swing high/low that just occurred.
Remember, when you are in a good trade, it starts to work pretty fast for you. Once you're up 1.5 points...bring your stop to b/e if you want. If price starts to chop around for 3-6 minutes, I usually just bail and scratch it.
Review the trades that work. You'll see a pattern. Review the trades that don't work or just flop around. You'll see a pattern. After a while, you'll get a pretty good feel for if a trade is going to work within 3-6 minutes.
By watching that 3/10 histogram's momentum, you'll start to see when a trade is accelerating and when momentum is subsiding. This will help you on your exits.
Keep in mind, the 3/10 histogram is measuring the distance between the 3 sma and the 10 sma. It's always going to peak out and start to roll over. You'll want to be exiting when you see that rollover or when you see it diverging with the price.
See attached chart for a sell signal and then an exit when the 3/10 starts to roll over. I've also markes 3 divergences, which can be a great entry signal (I think LBR calls it "3 little indians" )