Fractal Theory: Redux

[tiddlywinks]

Hi Hero:

Sorry to agree with you...that daily equity curve is more like a single day-by trade curve with big misses, execution or otherwise.

I suggest going back to basics. 1-2-3-FTT(1), and play the TAPES. To some extent, I think you may be over thinking, which leads to the analysis paralysis(ie, you just sit them out).

I "teach" something specific to my friends, and since you were part of my informative JH years ... For them, it's YM and 2m charts. When/if they "get it", it's usually add a contract (using day margins only) every 2 weeks, after they take a small wage for themselves as well. Depends how much time per day they are trading, and of course, what the market actually offers. And no, I am not a vendor selling a system or warez. I'm into helping others in my circle that have a true interest, and determined to learn if it (trading), can work for them. The difference between a KIA Soul and a Lincoln MKZ is about $400/mth. That's why. PM if you like.

Simplicity with attention to detail, not complexity, with too many details to pay attention too.

 

[fordewind]

The T&S stuff is beyond my ken but

T&S - Just the number of traded contracts to measure and compare with the wall value.Greater - the wall crumbled,lesser - the wall sustained.Simple,right?

I have no doubt that Jack meant what he said.

Not exactly and not thoroughly.some things weren`t disclosed.

 

[baro-san]

Thanks for weighing in. I think you underscored one of the biggest keys to this method; finding reasons to hold. If someone enters on an FTT, no matter what bar interval, the ratio of the potential loss to the point where your hypothesis is proved wrong with certainty vs. the potential length of the x2x2y2x sequence you're holding is extremely favorable.

I think I mentioned before, but I always think back to the old charts pre-2008 or so. They were extremely unpolished and often lacking in basic fractal integrity, yet there was a good number of traders making consistent profits off them. A decently annotated chart almost trades itself, at least in theory.

The last hurdle I've been facing for some time is how to stop my emotions from severely degrading my edge. The results in sim I consistently put up are really substantial. Most days I can trade small size like 1-2 contracts a little worse for wear but still decent. But every once in a while I over-trade, get sloppy with entries/risk, or just make plain, uncharacteristically bad reads on context and give back a lot more profit than I should.

I keep wanting to think a positive backlog of 100+ trades over weeks on end would give me enough comfort and confidence to stay the course and make solid decisions with live trades on but for some reason I just slip into old habits every once in a while. I guess I'm still lacking in some degree of self-knowledge and/or the ability to anticipate poor trading days and just sit them out. Anyone else with sustained success have difficulties like this on the cusp of the profitability barrier?

It seems you're closing in to mastering this method. I guess your errors start to surface when you tend to apply mechanically the set of "rules" you came up with. Those "rules" seem to occasionally fail, so you lose confidence, and enter late, exit early, sit on the sidelines during nice profit segments, but trade chop periods. You may remember that spydertrader was saying that there isn't a rigid set of rules that mechanically apply. Those "rules" are in fact a set of tools that together gauge for you the sentiment of the market. You have to learn to use them so that you trade what it is, objectively, and not what you think it is, subjectively. Good luck!

 

[svrz]

You may remember that spydertrader was saying that there isn't a rigid set of rules that mechanically apply. Those "rules" are in fact a set of tools that together gauge for you the sentiment of the market.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/iterative-refinement.113310/page-999#post-2210113

The method represents 100% 'rule-based' science. No art - not even a tiny bit.

You may have a later statement from him that supersedes the above quote but I'm not aware of it.

 

[baro-san]

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/iterative-refinement.113310/page-999#post-2210113



You may have a later statement from him that supersedes the above quote but I'm not aware of it.

He also wrote:

"I rarely hand out rules. Instead, I prefer people walk through the logic, step by step, in order to learn to understand how the market 'speaks' on each and every bar.

To that end ..... "​

My point is that what you perceive of market's doing is distorted by your perception, caused by your emotions and belief system (including the rules that you think are at work), so the productive approach (all the time) is from a position of mild curiosity, confidence, openness, flexibility, and such.

My post was intended mostly to llIHeroic, as I think I recognized the place where it is now, and he's close to mastering the method.

 

[tiddlywinks]

Hoping someone can give a link to help me out.

I'm looking for the methodology Spyder and/or JH used for colorization of price bars and volume bars. For price bars, there are several options. Open v close of current bar, open v previous close, hi (or lo) v previous hi (or lo) aka XB/XR, and others. For volume, similar options exist, and of course whether volume is colorized based on price bars, volume itself, or a combination ala Johari.

So if anyone has a link or document with the methodology used by Spyder or JH for price bar and volume bar colorization, it would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

 

[tiddlywinks]

While I'm thinking of it, another question/request...

Back in the day, there was a JHPV user with the nick of ezzy. On another forum, ezzy posted a torrent, like 5GBs of JH vids and docs. This is the ancient stuff! I have the torrent but there are no peers or seeds. Any thoughts? Anyone know ezzy?

 

[svrz]

I don't have the exact link but it was discussed on this thread:

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/6320-price-volume-relationship.html

With that said, here is what I recall of Spyder's algorithm for colorization of volume bars:

Higher high, higher low -> black
Stitch long -> black
FTP -> black
Inside bar, higher close -> black
Outside bar, higher close -> black
Same high, same low, higher close -> black
Lower low, lower low -> red
FBP -> red
Stitch short -> red
Inside bar, lower close -> red
Outside bar, lower close -> red
Same high, same low, higher close -> red

The late Jack Hershey used close of the price bars to color the volume bars.

I don't think the price bars were ever color coded. Jack may have done some of this around 2013-2014 in Trade Navigator but I don't believe he shared the code for that.

 

[svrz]

I have all of Ezzy's files. However the total size of these files is 6.5 GB. If someone can pay for a Dropbox, Box or another storage account, I will be happy to upload all these files.

 

[victorycountry]

Hoping someone can give a link to help me out.

I'm looking for the methodology Spyder and/or JH used for colorization of price bars and volume bars. For price bars, there are several options. Open v close of current bar, open v previous close, hi (or lo) v previous hi (or lo) aka XB/XR, and others. For volume, similar options exist, and of course whether volume is colorized based on price bars, volume itself, or a combination ala Johari.

So if anyone has a link or document with the methodology used by Spyder or JH for price bar and volume bar colorization, it would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/market-system-of-operation.280654/

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/spydertraders-jack-hershey-futures-trading-journal.83604/

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/sctlearning-from-scratch.282221/