Fractal Theory I

[plantrader]

Also! I've attached a basic quiz in Image: [5-29] FC Practice. If there is anyone with an interest of seeing this thread continue, please fill it out and post it. We will discuss this quiz for the weekend while the market is closed.

Hi Heroic. In your quiz, w/out the bar opening/closing info, and thinking in terms of price & volume... the black set of bars might represent a full sequence B2B2R2B while the red set of bars might only get us to R2R.

Are you open to discussing same-day charts & when we can know (versus only knowing in hindsight) that a Tape (or Traverse depending on your terminology) is ending vs when it might do continuation? I run into this a lot. It might relate to the peak-trough aspect you mentioned, or not. I don't know. We often get 'what we need' as far as potential completions, plus some movement in the opposite direction (and volume behavior as expected) only to end up having to fan around it because the existing Tape simply continues. How would one know in real time? Is there a way? As far as that being an acceptable breakeven, or stopout/loss, trade... fine. No problem. I'm mainly asking about whether there are techniques for identifying this in real time to avoid it a bit more often vs having to guess & then purely doing 'trade management'. Similar question in real-time with regards to a FTT that has implied volume vs waiting/thinking in real-time that we need true IV. Or a Tape/Traverse that has a FTT which is lesser than its Pt2 (which gives the appearance of being part of a move in the opposite direction in many cases even when looking at volume). I can break these down into specific questions & use charts if you're open to it. But you can probably already get a feel for where I'm coming from.

Maybe that's the best question to start with: Do you feel there is ANY expectancy for a Tape or Traverse's FTT to exceed its Pt2? If yes, what would you guess? 80% of the time with 20% being acceptably odd geometry?
EDIT: I also understand that nondom Tapes might form a FTT lesser than their Pt2 more often than Dom Tapes, do you agree with that? If you do, then my FTT question is moreso intended for Dom Tape discussion and nondom can be as wacky as it wants to be.

 

[midtown]

Plantrader, my thoughts re the ftt surpassing p2. I know that Spydertrader didn’t require it and he had annotated charts that showed FTT not surpassing. Jack spoke against thinking vertically, but in truth I always had the same question. I’ve never seen an ftt at any fractal fail to match or surpass the p2. But that’s only my experience and actually there were a few, maybe 1 in a 1000 times that I thought maybe the “rule” didn’t work when applied to a dominant leg. Once you meet the verticality requirement, if there is one, I found it wasn’t very helpful as an indication of completion, the real issue being, as I now understand it, is if all the components within the tape or traverse have completed and you see exhaustion by comparing the volume surges

 

[marketsurfer]

Hi Heroic. In your quiz, w/out the bar opening/closing info, and thinking in terms of price & volume... the black set of bars might represent a full sequence B2B2R2B while the red set of bars might only get us to R2R.

Are you open to discussing same-day charts & when we can know (versus only knowing in hindsight) that a Tape (or Traverse depending on your terminology) is ending vs when it might do continuation? I run into this a lot. It might relate to the peak-trough aspect you mentioned, or not. I don't know. We often get 'what we need' as far as potential completions, plus some movement in the opposite direction (and volume behavior as expected) only to end up having to fan around it because the existing Tape simply continues. How would one know in real time? Is there a way? As far as that being an acceptable breakeven, or stopout/loss, trade... fine. No problem. I'm mainly asking about whether there are techniques for identifying this in real time to avoid it a bit more often vs having to guess & then purely doing 'trade management'. Similar question in real-time with regards to a FTT that has implied volume vs waiting/thinking in real-time that we need true IV. Or a Tape/Traverse that has a FTT which is lesser than its Pt2 (which gives the appearance of being part of a move in the opposite direction in many cases even when looking at volume). I can break these down into specific questions & use charts if you're open to it. But you can probably already get a feel for where I'm coming from.

Maybe that's the best question to start with: Do you feel there is ANY expectancy for a Tape or Traverse's FTT to exceed its Pt2? If yes, what would you guess? 80% of the time with 20% being acceptably odd geometry?
EDIT: I also understand that nondom Tapes might form a FTT lesser than their Pt2 more often than Dom Tapes, do you agree with that? If you do, then my FTT question is moreso intended for Dom Tape discussion and nondom can be as wacky as it wants to be.

You just cracked the code and don't even realize it. ANY RANDOM ENTRY on a STOCK CHART will yield the exact same results as all this nonsense you are wasting your time with. There are no answers to your questions, but you are THINKING right and not deluded like the folks you are seeking advice from.

surf

 

[plantrader]

You just cracked the code and don't even realize it. ANY RANDOM ENTRY on a STOCK CHART will yield the exact same results as all this nonsense you are wasting your time with. There are no answers to your questions, but you are THINKING right and not deluded like the folks you are seeking advice from.

surf

marketsurfer, As I don't have a long history of success with this method, I can't discount your thoughts on it. Nor anyone else's. I've done Ok, coming out on the right side in an overall sense but it's only been 2+ months so far. So is this approach & its constructs simply a way to keep our mind busy & avoid obsessively bad trading habits? Or is it able to be clear & recognizable in REAL-TIME as far as knowing which version of the guidelines to apply when there are multiple options (regarding nesting of fractals, dom vs nondom, when they end vs continuation, etc... all very important & difficult in real-time versus very easy in hindsight)? I don't know that answer, but I still think it can be beneficial to hear others manner of handlings/seeing things b/c one little tidbit could be enough to get someone over the hump. Even if it is just arbitrary structure in order to stay sane as a trader and be able to ride a good trade or avoid exiting way too early every time. Factors like that are a big win either way, if you know what I mean.

 

[plantrader]

Plantrader, my thoughts re the ftt surpassing p2. I know that Spydertrader didn’t require it and he had annotated charts that showed FTT not surpassing. Jack spoke against thinking vertically, but in truth I always had the same question. I’ve never seen an ftt at any fractal fail to match or surpass the p2. But that’s only my experience and actually there were a few, maybe 1 in a 1000 times that I thought maybe the “rule” didn’t work when applied to a dominant leg. Once you meet the verticality requirement, if there is one, I found it wasn’t very helpful as an indication of completion, the real issue being, as I now understand it, is if all the components within the tape or traverse have completed and you see exhaustion by comparing the volume surges

Thanks midtown, I've noticed that a lot as well so far. Maybe it's a good way to handle things, expect FTT to exceed Pt2 (for dom things) and when that doesn't work... fine, no method handles everything correctly every time. But if we have NO expectation whatsoever for dom Tapes/Traverses to exceed their Pt2, then it's pretty tough to end up able effectively ride a full Tape or Traverse w/out exiting too early most of the time. Because, it's also somewhat common to break a RTL and have a real-time FTT & SOC (signal for change) only to end up having to fan it due to continuation of the existing trend after said retrace. If we heed those signals, we'll be out of the trade (or stopped out on a reversal trade attempt). That's why I was asking about FTTs, clues for invalid endings even though we have everything we "need" already, etc.

 

[midtown]

Exactly my experience... all requirements seemed to be met, but for some reason they weren't. Too early again. Working to understand Heroic's perspective, or emphasis, along with some new vocabulary words is challenging. The truth of it seems to get clearer and clearer. I think its going to be worth the discomfort.

 

[plantrader]

Exactly my experience... all requirements seemed to be met, but for some reason they weren't. Too early again. Working to understand Heroic's perspective, or emphasis, along with some new vocabulary words is challenging. The truth of it seems to get clearer and clearer. I think its going to be worth the discomfort.

Agreed, the stuff seems workable & valuable. Not that I've got enough history with it to comment too much, but you have to start somewhere. Studied it somewhat intensively for 12+ months, and live trading after that. It's just the nuances, things we only know in hindsight such as a FTT occurring prior to the container's Pt2, or a trend fizzling out vs running on & on with continuation. In both cases on low volume, sometimes. And little retraces will show incr vol in the opposite direction, only to fail & we have to fan around it & continue the existing trend (hindsight). Are there clues to know some of this in real time? Nobody I know seems to know them, if so. Other than play the FTT/SOC/RTL break & then just manage the trade. When it's wrong, it's wrong. I'm Ok with all of that, but the bigger picture stance seems to be that this method allows us to know with a bit more certainty than that. Maybe I'm wrong on that note.

 

[plantrader]

... all requirements seemed to be met, but for some reason they weren't. Too early again.

midtown, I think you were right when you said all requirements were met. It's just that sometimes we get more than the minimum needed. In those cases, I'd love to figure out a way to know when we expect to get more instead of mistakenly thinking the minimum needed is all we'll get. Or at any point in the 'more than needed', when we have valid volume sequences, a FTT and SOC, yet it's not finished yet, can we figure out how to identify that more clearly? Details on this subject are important, not just general concepts.

 

[midtown]

I, like you, came to this thread hoping to find better signals. I didn't want to abandon my cherished system even though I never could meet Jacks criteria of averaging at least 12 points per day before risking real money. As I study Heroic's charts, labeling intently in order to keep myself oriented, I find myself moving away from the idea of signals of change and more toward mastery of identifying where the smallest fractals change, how they build the larger fractals and ultimately all complete. Its more work than I had expected.

 

[debitspread]

I never could meet Jack's criteria of averaging at least 12 points per day

If it's any solace, few among us can fill those big shoes.