Fractal nature of stock market...
- Thread starter gettinglucky
- Start date
I try to monitor the Short Term, Long Term, and Intermediate Term trends and how they give context and there interrelationship. Currently the IT trend is down so the obvious thing to do is sell any rally UNLESS the counter short term trend is strong enough to change the intermediate term trend.....got it?
the market is people u know. so r u sayin that people r highly unpredictable.
- 5-year period is way too long. To find the period with the optimal Hurst exponent look at 3 months or less.
- Markets are probably trending towards less randomness over time. However circa 2000 you can find studies with Hurst exponent of approx 0.65. Nowadays markets are probably "more rational" (less random). Additionally any measurements will be hampered by all the volatility. Still if anyone thinks this would give them an edge it would be interesting to see the analysis.
i agree.
at 3 mos. out the trend line would definitely get tighter
I would say it is the opposite. More players, more methods, more money, more efficiency, harder to profit.
thats true too. the financial markets have many more individuals and novices than before; which would make the market much more unpredictable.
however
with the introduction of high frequency trading using complex computer programs, the market may be less volatile
and this of course is just my very broad non mathamatical deduction
