1. Bitcoin dropping to $30K as suggested in the article is not a "crash" considering the enormous volatility of this asset. It's simply a drop within its current range.
2. Over short to medium terms, BTC's price does seem to correlate with other risk assets; over the longer term it's price behaviour is more heavily driven by other, cyclical factors, that influence its supply and demand. Some of this has to do with the halvings and some of this has to do with "herd psychology" that can be modelled and which matches what is seen in the modelling of some other asset classes that have enormous run-ups in prices.
3. I always hold puts when I'm long BTC, which I try to buy "cheap" based on statistical modelling. BTC options are expensive, but that is because BTC is highly volatile; when purchased strategically, I find options are not overly expensive relative to the protection they provide.
4. I do measure a statistically significant stabilizing effect occurring in BTC in recent years which shows up in my models that has been dampening the spikes and moderating the drops; however, the asset is still extremely volatile compared to other asset classes. It will take MUCH more interest in this asset from a specific type of market participant before its volatility significantly dampens. I predict this is still decades off and by then other forces could disrupt my thesis.
5. In the VERY long term, BTC's price could be dominated by those using it as an inflation hedge, but that's not the driving use case at the moment. Take the buyers (and sellers) and divvy them up into their respective motivations for buying and selling BTC to model its price. People are talking a lot about inflation right now, but an insignificant portion of the BTC market is buying BTC today for this reason.
