Forget about S&P 1000

[B. Rowshan]

As per Joe's request, this thread will be a serious trading thread. The premise is that the S&P won't see 1000 in January. My reasoning is as follows:

1) quite suddenly, there's alot of bullish sentiment
2) complacency is setting in--the vix is below 40
3) The year got off to a positive start (a headfake)
4) there's irrational optimism about what Obama can do
5) there's an extreme lack of awareness regarding the deluge of companies that will go bankrupt in 2009

The S&P closed at 931.8. It will not see 1000 in January. It will see 850 before it sees 1000. Only serious replies will be answered.

Looking forward to this being a long running thread.

 

[stock_trad3r]

write it up and sell it as a report for $40..lol

 

[B. Rowshan]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

write it up and sell it as a report for $40..lol

I just did write it up.

Maybe you want to pay particular attention as this thread will not contain long recommendations that plummet -75% in 6 months as your index (ie mos, fcx) did.

Unfortunately, these are the types of comments I will not address going forward. This is a serious thread.

 

[4444CJones4444]

So you're saying the S&P 500 can't move up 7% from the present levels in the month of Jan? I'll take that bet. I like playing the odds.

 

[4444CJones4444]

Quote from B. Rowshan:



1) quite suddenly, there's alot of bullish sentiment


4) there's irrational optimism about what Obama can do
5) there's an extreme lack of awareness regarding the deluge of companies that will go bankrupt in 2009

I think you're mistaking CNBCs sentiment with serious investors sentiment.

You need to add another option in the poll:
The S&P will see 850 AND 1000 in Jan.

 

[B. Rowshan]

Quote from 4444CJones4444:

I think you're mistaking CNBCs sentiment with serious investors sentiment.

No, i'm definitely not.

Quote from 4444CJones4444:

So you're saying the S&P 500 can't move up 7% from the present levels in the month of Jan?

I'm never saying "can't" b/c the market can do anything. I'm saying I believe it won't. If you are interested in making $$ from your belief, the S&P Jan 1000 calls closed at 2 7/8. They expire 1/23.

Obviously, i'm a seller of the Jan 1000 calls, as i don't think it will see 1000 by 1/23 or by 1/31. Selling Jan 1000 calls is 1 way of making $$ here.

 

[4444CJones4444]

Quote from B. Rowshan:

No, i'm definitely not.

I'm never saying "can't" b/c the market can do anything. I'm saying I believe it won't. If you are interested in making $$ from your belief, the S&P Jan 1000 calls closed at 2 7/8. They expire 1/23.

Obviously, i'm a seller of the Jan 1000 calls, as i don't think it will see 1000 by 1/23 or by 1/31. Selling Jan 1000 calls is 1 way of making $$ here.

I prefer a straddle, and not on the index. We're moving one way or the other.

 

[4444CJones4444]

I forgot to mention, I hope you're right. SPX at 850 would center my profit graphs nicely.

 

[B. Rowshan]

Quote from 4444CJones4444:

I prefer a straddle, and not on the index. We're moving one way or the other.

Anything invloving the puts side is not something I want to trade. Stay away from the puts!

 

[Ivanovich]

I agree with you that it is irrational optimism. But the funny thing about irrational optimism is that it can remain irrational for quite a longer time than is expected. A 70 point move in ES is certainly plausable in the next few weeks.

But I agree that a move lower is the ultimate play off round.