Forget about a rate cut !

[dhpar]

Quote from jem:

serious question. a rate cut or a series of them does stimulate the economy by providing cheaper money.

But, by all reports there is tons of money out there looking for a home.

And a rate cut might not have the effect or lowering the 10 yr or 30 yr yield.

A rate cut might have an effect on two year arms and the like. But to have an impact on housing it would have to be a couple points along with a easing of restrictions on subprime lending.

there are many other issues.
A. according to fed any cuts/hikes take some time to be felt in real economy (6mos+). Personally I think that's bullshit - that might have been true 15 years ago but not today when markets and information flow is much more efficient. But if it is true then it will be felt right at the time after the housing market recovers and help to start the next housing bubble all over again...
B. i believe that fed funds have recently lost all impact on economy - there is so much money that rates are determined by other factors and it is imaginable that cut would in fact tighten monetary conditions (e.g. via foreigner outflows).
C. It is all about confidence - and cutting rates in environment is a certain suicide. It is not a coincidence that economy was extremely strong during recent hiking campaign (demonstrating fed confidence in economy)....
D. etc etc

 

[S2007S]

Quote from balda:

I think rate cut is coming this summer due to housing numbers.

Not happening, the housing market is already in a decline, no need to save an already overheated market, housing prices are still up 100% from only 5 years ago. Housing is still expensive, housing prices still need to come down 10% to as much as 30-40% in some areas. Houses near me that once sold for 250,000 only in 1998 are up to 800,000 in 2007. You do the math.

 

[dhpar]

Quote from S2007S:

Not happening, the housing market is already in a decline, no need to save an already overheated market, housing prices are still up 100% from only 5 years ago. Housing is still expensive, housing prices still need to come down 10% to as much as 30-40% in some areas. Houses near me that once sold for 250,000 only in 1998 are up to 800,000 in 2007. You do the math.

wow - you still have some cheap housing. Many Americans do not have a clue what expensive housing is and what "affordable" really means....
Inflation will eat 800k very fast in any case


P.S. I am from London

 

[S2007S]

Quote from dhpar:

wow - you still have some cheap housing. Many Americans do not have a clue what expensive housing is and what "affordable" really means....
Inflation will eat 800k very fast in any case


P.S. I am from London

well not too far away from me houses go for as much as 1.5 to 2 million.

 

[NasdaqTrader]

How in the world can young people earning 35-40k average income afford 800k homes. A 800k mortgage would go for about 4,800/month plus taxes and insurance, not to mention other life's monthly expenses. There is no point for average income folks to live in high priced areas like CT, NJ ,NY, and CA (unless you like living with cockroaches in crappy apartments making your landlord rich), where unless you bought a house 5-10 years ago at least, you are forever priced out of the market. I think prices in those areas need to come down like 80%.

 

[Comanche]

next exotic mortgage, 50 year fixed!!

 

[dhpar]

Quote from S2007S:

well not too far away from me houses go for as much as 1.5 to 2 million.

yep - quite usual here. 1m pounds gets you up the ladder in style though.

 

[sobemark]

here in miami it is gonna get ugly..

the downtown area has 30k condos under construction w/ 80% of them pre sold to spec's ..

ugly all around ..but miami may be ground zero.

 

[dhpar]

Quote from sobemark:

here in miami it is gonna get ugly..

the downtown area has 30k condos under construction w/ 80% of them pre sold to spec's ..

ugly all around ..but miami may be ground zero.

hurricanes will sort it out.

 

[TheDudeofLife]

Quote from NasdaqTrader:

How in the world can young people earning 35-40k average income afford 800k homes. A 800k mortgage would go for about 4,800/month plus taxes and insurance, not to mention other life's monthly expenses. There is no point for average income folks to live in high priced areas like CT, NJ ,NY, and CA (unless you like living with cockroaches in crappy apartments making your landlord rich), where unless you bought a house 5-10 years ago at least, you are forever priced out of the market. I think prices in those areas need to come down like 80%.

This is why a lot of people support illegal immigrants. They need fresh bodies ,willing to live in cockroach invested apartments, to perform all the services at the Wa Mart like "everday low prices". The descendants of immigrants from centuries ago, have wisened up to the ill effects on society that inflation causes. California would likely cease to operate were all the 1st generation illegals magically transported back to were they came from.