FOREX signals on this thread. No strings attached.

I guess it is ok then to give the name of the service I feel very comfortable with: fx-quant.com. I had previously subscribed with them for a stock index swing trading system, presently inactive, with which I would have done very well if I had just followed exactly their recommendation and not tried to out guess them as most people do. With the fx-quant system you don't have that temptation, what you have to do is update the 10 positions once a day according to their daily e-mail.

The brain behind it is a professor with a Ph.D. in mathematics who teaches at a university in Macedonia, his nationality might be Russian, I don't know, and the website operates out of New Zealand - sounds exotic enough? When you go through their web page you will immediately realize it is not one of those ridiculous schemes where two highly correlated pairs are traded at enormous leverage often claimed to be based on statistical arbitrage.

I have nothing similar to the fx-quant system found on the web - if anybody does please let us know.

Player, I will PM you the name of the other system I follow which is based on long term trends and could trade as many as 11 pairs and designed to capture as much carry interest as possible.
 
Recap: March - July 13, 2007
Approximate PIPS 4441
(Errors or omissions not intentional)
Best!
mF

Symbol Signal Buy Average Sell Average PIPS Days Held

EURUSD LONG 2/13/2007 13031 3/5/2007 13086 55 22
SHORT 3/12/2007 13187 3/5/2007 13086 (101) 7
LONG 3/14/2007 13233 3/28/2007 13309 76 14
LONG 4/1/2007 13353 5/2/2007 13594 241 31
SHORT 6/4/2007 13491 5/20/2007 13520 29 14
SHORT 6/17/2007 13385 6/7/2007 13426 41 10
LONG 6/24/2007 13462 7/13/2007 13785 323 Still Long 19
664


USDJPY SHORT 3/8/2007 11820 2/27/2007 12027 207 11
SHORT 3/22/2007 11808 3/12/2007 11755 (53) 10
LONG 4/3/2007 11878 4/18/2007 11835 (43) 15
LONG 4/26/2007 11954 6/5/2007 12142 188 39
LONG 6/13/2007 12256 7/1/2007 12321 65 18
LONG 7/6/2007 12339 7/10/2007 12172 (167) 4
SHORT 7/13/2007 12201 7/13/2007 12201 - New 1
197

GBPUSD SHORT 3/18/2007 19411 3/1/2007 19569 158 17
LONG 3/20/2007 19612 4/26/2007 19903 291 36
SHORT 5/23/2007 19862 5/13/2007 19833 (29) 10
SHORT 6/1/2007 19821 5/30/2007 19759 (62) 1
LONG 6/4/2007 19913 6/7/2007 19779 (134) 3
SHORT 6/17/2007 19767 6/8/2007 19678 (89) 9
LONG 6/20/2007 19924 7/13/2007 20337 413 Still Long 23
548

USDCHF SHORT 3/8/2007 12274 2/15/2007 12348 74 23
LONG 3/8/2007 12274 3/13/2007 12170 (104) 5
SHORT 3/28/2007 12169 3/14/2007 12168 (1) 14
SHORT 4/26/2007 12086 4/12/2007 12165 79 14
LONG 5/8/2007 12179 5/30/2007 12251 72 22
LONG 6/1/2007 12296 6/4/2007 12224 (72) 3
LONG 6/8/2007 12357 6/22/2007 12284 (73) 14
SHORT 7/13/2007 12030 6/24/2007 12285 255 Still Short 19
230

USDCAD LONG 3/1/2007 11728 3/9/2007 11722 (6) 8
LONG 3/18/2007 11760 3/20/2007 11599 (161) 2
SHORT 5/8/2007 11052 3/20/2007 11599 547 48
SHORT 6/13/2007 10674 5/16/2007 11026 352 27
SHORT 7/13/2007 10481 6/28/2007 10597 116 15
848 Still Short


AUDUSD SHORT 3/9/2007 7802 3/1/2007 7849 47 8
LONG 3/12/2007 7858 4/24/2007 8295 437 42
LONG 5/13/2007 8335 5/17/2007 8225 (110) 4
SHORT 5/30/2007 8224 5/20/2007 8237 13 10
LONG 6/1/2007 8321 6/27/2007 8396 75 26
LONG 6/28/2007 8463 7/13/2007 8691 228 Still Long 15
690

EURJPY SHORT 3/8/2007 15390 3/1/2007 15503 113 7
SHORT 3/15/2007 15556 3/13/2007 15299 (257) 2
LONG 3/21/2007 15730 3/28/2007 15560 (170) 7
LONG 3/30/2007 15740 4/18/2007 16114 374 18
LONG 4/27/2007 16309 5/8/2007 16238 (71) 11
LONG 5/16/2007 16333 5/24/2007 16282 (51) 8
LONG 6/1/2007 16407 6/6/2007 16314 (93) 5
SHORT 6/13/2007 16312 6/10/2007 16248 (64) 3
LONG 6/14/2007 16374 7/13/2007 16820 446 Still Long 29
227

GBPJPY SHORT 3/9/2007 22836 2/26/2007 23684 848 13
SHORT 3/21/2007 23104 3/13/2007 22371 (733) 8
LONG 3/25/2007 23138 3/28/2007 22946 (192) 3
LONG 3/30/2007 23183 4/18/2007 23773 590 18
LONG 4/27/2007 23874 5/8/2007 23859 (15) 11
LONG 5/16/2007 23887 5/30/2007 24018 131 14
LONG 6/1/2007 24187 6/7/2007 23958 (229) 6
LONG 6/13/2007 24173 7/13/2007 24810 637 Still Long 30
1,037

TOTAL PIPS 4,441
 
kahai:

The author of this thread when was working for a living used to do quantitative analysis and portfolio adjustment for few managed accounts limited to the 30 stocks of the Dow Jones on those days.
It was possible with the introduction of major Brokerage Houses of asset-fee accounts where no commissions were charged, just a fixed percentage of the value of the account.
The adjustment was made weekly on the amount of shares to be invested the following week, more or less like fx-quant does on a daily adjustment of pairs.
It was a lot of work but a beauty with remarkable returns in spite of a major constrain, mainly that the House did not allowed short positions. Their excuse was that the client will object sporadic payment of dividends when short. Actually, on those days was a bad word to short stocks, specially blue chips like Dow stocks.
You did stir the author's curiosity with your referral to the work of these mathematicians at fx-quant, and you need to be commended for that. That's what is good on these Forums.
With the set up at Oanda it makes sense to "massage" numbers in order to adjust positons.
Dusting off old formulae the author will give you an idea how the 8 pairs tracked on these daily signals could be adjusted. The thread offers directional signals. The following is an attempt to quantitatively adjust positions on a directional environment. Primarily for a mini account where the maximum will be plus or minus 10.000 units. A multiplier of 10 could be used for normal size lots.
It will look like this:

Date
EUR USD GBP USD USD AUD EUR GBP
USD JPY USD CHF CAD USD JPY JPY

7/15/2007 8326 -1750 7518 -7432 -5870 8868 6898 5850
7/16/2007 8272 -1388 7790 -7156 -6160 9042 6990 6868

and the adjustment for July 16 will read like this:

EURUSD -54
USDJPY + 362
GBPUSD + 272
USDCHF + 276
USDCAD + 276
AUDUSD -290
EURJPY + 92
GBPJPY + 1018

Best!
mF
 
Wow, I am stunned.

Would your system, by making daily adjustments, also eliminate the need for any stops? Would you really want to go through all that work in order to provide daily adjustment figures? I might be tempted to follow it in a life account but am not sure yet.

BTW, a small error crept in, according to your position figures the USD/CAD adjustment should be -290 and for the AUD/USD +174.

Have you also checked out their equity-quant.com? This is similar what you did with the 30 Dow stocks. Right now it is in the testing stage and you can get the weekly updates free in form of an Excel spread sheet and if you are using Interactive Brokers you can load it through their basket trader with a few clicks into their demo platform.
 
kahai

Correction:

EURUSD -54
USDJPY + 362
GBPUSD + 272
USDCHF + 276
USDCAD -290
AUDUSD +174
EURJPY + 92
GBPJPY + 1018

Thank you for noting the error. I did not copy and paste. It was a typo error.
I do not mind posting the adjustment for the 8 pairs. The problem is that I travel a lot and I could miss some days or do a late posting due to lack of internet connections. I'll go over the rest of your comments this evening.
Best!
mF
 
A more important factor would be, is your system enough balanced so you do not need any stops like FX-Quant? Then it would not matter too much if you miss a day. Also, FX-Quant recommends to do the adjustments at the close of the US market when it is relatively quiet, I would have to find a quiet time for your system to do the adjustments. I suppose you do not use Oanda, is there any other broker who allows single units or as low as 10 units?

Anyway, I have not decided yet, your system is just doing fine as is, although, it would be nice to compare it with daily adjustments. I appreciate all the efforts.
Thanks
 
Kahai:

Some answers to your questions.

Would your system, by making daily adjustments, also eliminate the need for any stops?
(Actually it is not a system. You brought the point about fx-quaint, and found it quite interesting and indeed it has its merits. As far as STOPS that is a complex subject, but with this daily adjustment it may not be needed since it is like a basket of different pairs. However the ones I track were selected at random initially. There is no scientific grouping here).
Would you really want to go through all that work in order to provide daily adjustment figures?
(It’s not a major work once you set up the formulae and have an idea of what you want to accomplish)
I might be tempted to follow it in a life account but am not sure yet.
(Personally I just opened an account with one the sponsors – Oanda – and it should be funded by early next week. I just learned thru you about this fine company and the flexibility of the account. Just a mini account that could accommodate the 8 pairs, eventually at once)

BTW, a small error crept in, according to your position figures the USD/CAD adjustment should be -290 and for the AUD/USD +174.
(Thank you. It was corrected; from now on I will copy and paste even if the outcome on the thread is disorganized)

Have you also checked out their equity-quant.com? This is similar what you did with the 30 Dow stocks. Right now it is in the testing stage and you can get the weekly updates free in form of an Excel spread sheet and if you are using Interactive Brokers you can load it through their basket trader with a few clicks into their demo platform
(Thank you for the URL That’s little more complex because you will have to take into consideration the price of the stocks: from $20 to over $100 in order to allocate a balanced amount of capital to each issue. I,m doing that right now at Intecactive Brokers but with less than 20 stocks. It works like a charm. It is like position trading, balanced and stress-free. I adjust daily. I will not buy any signals from equity-quaint. Not because of the $100 a month. Mainly because I do not know what goes into their algorithms. Besides I can produce the adjustments myself. I always like to measure direction and momentum).

A more important factor would be, is your system enough balanced so you do not need any stops like FX-Quant? Then it would not matter too much if you miss a day. Also, FX-Quant recommends to do the adjustments at the close of the US market when it is relatively quiet, I would have to find a quiet time for your system to do the adjustments. I suppose you do not use Oandaas 10 units?
(Remember, kahai, this is not a system. Rather a good idea. I do not mind posting adjustments here but should be taken with several caveats:
1. I am new to FOREX
2) The pairs were selected at random
3) No assurance that posting will continue without interruption
4) No back testing done under this set up

Best!
mF
 
mF,
Thanks for all the details. For the moment I will just stay with your regular posting since I have too many other things going, like getting a better understanding how commodities spread trading based on seasonality works. However, if you do the daily position adjustments I would be interested to see how the results are on a monthly basis compared do what you have been posting so far. BTW, Oanda allows single units, like buying 1 EUR but the position sizing would also work with brokers who require a minimum of 10 units, like buying 10 EUR.

For the Equity-Quant 50 you don't have to pay right now to receive your weekly 50 position adjustments because it is still in the testing phase and they only recommend trading it in a demo account. I won't trade it until I have seen several months of real time results and unless it shows great results I prefer the simplicity of the FX-Quant. On the other hand, the more uncorrelated diversification the better.

They have another system, options-quant, basically selling naked strangles with position adjustments but I cannot warm myself up to sell naked options, I do however sell option credit spreads on stocks and stock indexes.
 
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