Forex price action trading
- Thread starter momoNY
- Start date
No it is not a failed break down; it is news action, the trend is still down. Don't be fooled by the action of one day. It is coming down already, but it will retest the trend line again probably on Monday. Expect tomorrow to be an inside day to the upside, if it breaks today's high then we may go higher otherwise, Monday will be a higher high day and will reverse to the downside.
Today, I was killed by the reversal, I was very weak, no sleep for the week! But managed to recover most my losses. I turned positive on the challenge by shorting it higher. I will post a blotter when I get home.
Challenge: $40
No, I didn't mean that trend reversed to bullish. It was failed breakout. One smart lady here on ET refers to it as first mouse and second mouse situation. First mouse gets trapped most of the time. Price broke out to the downside through support. Whoever enter short at this time is a first mouse. Most (or a lot) of the time price comes back to retest either former support or even farther. Then it comes down again and whoever short on that second breakout is a second mouse. Much safer entry. So when it gets back under support line again I'll be seller I guess.
She is very right! But I prefer to short around 1.2470, it is the safest area IMHO. you risk 35 pips fpr a potential of 200 pips! expect this not to go down in a straight line it will take probably a week! Unless because of news tomorrow with payroll.
Well I sould have walked the talk, but... The week was very stressing for me. Never trade when you are not in a good shape and never change time frames; these are the two things I need to work on, everything I am ok at, except these two. I tend to go to lower time frames and find myself scalping, that's in my opinion a waste of time and energy and a guaranteed burnout.
I am down $500 with an odd position that is losing almost $300. I need to stop talking money!
He is my analysis for this coming week.
a. If the Euro was that weak, we would have gone bellow 1.22 after the payroll. It barely made a lower low, this is not the kind of action that can take a strong support as the one at 1.22-20. It needs to go up to get more enthusiasts (suckers for wallstreeters) to who to sell higher. The sentiment is very bearish among retail traders (the crowd); they are net short, which is an inverse indicator.
b. The Euro is not strong either, it would have had a follow through at least on the 4 hours chart the day of European Central bank news; it didn't meaning further down we go but not a lot.
Here is what I think the price would do for the foreseeable future:
This coming week we will go down to 1.222, then we will come back modestly and go up for two or three weeks (expect the Euro to end higher for the year) to 1.2530-50, then come back to take the low, and establish a reversal pattern to go up to 1.28 first, then retract and go to 1.34 last, within the next 6 months. After that, my account should be bigger if I trade the chart and not what I think, this should be a guide only, I may be dead wrong; these are my 12 years statistics watching the stock market almost tick by tick!!
The plan for this week:
If it opens Monday and goes lower, it may turn back right away and go up to1.2340-50 and comeback, to go to 1.222 in the next two days.
If it opens and goes up, expect it to go to challenge1.2456 and probably break it but not 1.253; 1.248 would be a good entry to short with stop at 1.2535
If it opens and goes lower than 1.226, then it will go all the way to 1.222 which is a good area to go long.
I have to remember my expectations, but execute only if there is confirmation in the chart!
I have a plan let's stick to it, hope good spirit will be au rendez-vous and reach the challenge. Say amen!
Have a great week all.
I am down $500 with an odd position that is losing almost $300. I need to stop talking money!
He is my analysis for this coming week.
a. If the Euro was that weak, we would have gone bellow 1.22 after the payroll. It barely made a lower low, this is not the kind of action that can take a strong support as the one at 1.22-20. It needs to go up to get more enthusiasts (suckers for wallstreeters) to who to sell higher. The sentiment is very bearish among retail traders (the crowd); they are net short, which is an inverse indicator.
b. The Euro is not strong either, it would have had a follow through at least on the 4 hours chart the day of European Central bank news; it didn't meaning further down we go but not a lot.
Here is what I think the price would do for the foreseeable future:
This coming week we will go down to 1.222, then we will come back modestly and go up for two or three weeks (expect the Euro to end higher for the year) to 1.2530-50, then come back to take the low, and establish a reversal pattern to go up to 1.28 first, then retract and go to 1.34 last, within the next 6 months. After that, my account should be bigger if I trade the chart and not what I think, this should be a guide only, I may be dead wrong; these are my 12 years statistics watching the stock market almost tick by tick!!
The plan for this week:
If it opens Monday and goes lower, it may turn back right away and go up to1.2340-50 and comeback, to go to 1.222 in the next two days.
If it opens and goes up, expect it to go to challenge1.2456 and probably break it but not 1.253; 1.248 would be a good entry to short with stop at 1.2535
If it opens and goes lower than 1.226, then it will go all the way to 1.222 which is a good area to go long.
I have to remember my expectations, but execute only if there is confirmation in the chart!
I have a plan let's stick to it, hope good spirit will be au rendez-vous and reach the challenge. Say amen!
Have a great week all.
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This looks like it is going up, we will retest 1.222,It is foolish to look for the exact bottom. I reshorted, at 1.2275, I will try to close the position at a better price and look to go long with a wider stop 1.219, then add more if it gets down. If it goes up straight from here expect it to come to take the low very soon, in days.
Covered my short for $300 loss then went long at 1.2312 on average, closed two positions at 1.2452 and the other at 1.2483, then scalped some to end ~$1200 up on the challenge.
Challenge: +$1200.
Put a limit sell at 1.2460, it did not get there, but I think it will. It is very likely that tomorrow will break the high of today then turn down, for a descent pull back. I will short only if there is confirmation, 1.253 is good resistance, 1.26 is stronger. Happy trading All. I'll post my blotter when I get home tonight.
Challenge: +$1200.
Put a limit sell at 1.2460, it did not get there, but I think it will. It is very likely that tomorrow will break the high of today then turn down, for a descent pull back. I will short only if there is confirmation, 1.253 is good resistance, 1.26 is stronger. Happy trading All. I'll post my blotter when I get home tonight.