Let's think a little out loud.
1- on a daily it made a higher high at 1.26 few days ago and broke an important level. The trend is not "very down", still not completely up, it needs to break 1.26 to be up. The way we came down from 1.26 is really strong, suggesting a stronger upward is needed to break it, which we don't have, so far!
2- on 4 hours, the trend is down, in order to turn up it needs FIRST to break 1.253, the way it came up from 1.236 is not convincing, but the way we starting to have the other wave from 1.2419 is very descent, suggesting it may go a little further up; it will very likely break 1.253.
3- The weekly is down, need to beak 1.26 to start anything meaningful to the upside
Conclusion: We may break 1.253, but fail to break 1.26 and go back down; if that happens it will go down very hard.
If we break 1,253, there will very likely be a descent pull back before we attempt to break 1.26; that pullback will tell a lot on the future direction. If the pullback is weak then we may break 1.26.
If 1.26is broken, the daily will turn up and we will very likely go visit 1.28-29 in few weeks; I would highly doubt it will break 1.29; we will go down from there to break the 1.22-20 strong support area.
Our action:
Long here at 1.2475 target 1.2525 stop 1.2417. Prepare to short at 1.255 if it gets there. We will be playing 2 positions at a time. Suddenly I feel better, I have a plan!!! Good trading all.
