Forex Ideas & Comments

[systematicfx]

EURUSD: Short Term levels.
Support to watch 1.2805/10 - 1.2755 - 1.2665
Resistance: 1.2940/60 - 1.3000/35
To relieve the bearish pressure, we would need to go back above 1.2940/60 to test the more important 1.3000/35. Until then SELL rally ( ideally) with a S/L 1.2975 or 1.3055

Week End News:

1. Current proposed G20 growth measures would add 1.8 pct to global growth by 2018 - german g20 source
2. Germany's Schaeuble sees potential risk of bubbles in share and real estate markets - german g20 source
3. Schaeuble underlined need for structural reforms and consolidation to foster sustainable growth - german source
4. German fin min Schaeuble sees solid fiscal policy necessary to create room to act if risks materialize

Noyer says QE not on ECB agenda at the moment

1. ECB waiting for results of current stimulus steps
2. Noyer says euro zone "certainly not in deflation"
3. But inflation too low for too long is "is dangerous"

Weaker euro would be helpful to restore price stability

 

[systematicfx]

We might see some consolidation before the next move

 

[systematicfx]

October Seasonal

 

[George Sharkey]

I see all successful Forex trades have long time trading experience. Because, they can realize the market upcoming movement by their high quality trading skilled. Without learning, it is quite impossible to earn consistent profit.

 

[systematicfx]

Trading is like any other job, it takes time and there is no real shortcut. I agree

 

[systematicfx]

OPTIONS-Larger expirires for NY cut
EUR/USD: 1.2650 (205M), 1.2685 (811M), 1.2700 (855M), 1.2730 (252M)
AUD/USD: 0.8665-75 (340M), 0.8700 (756M), 0.8720-25 (502M)
0.8750 (433M), 0.8800 (486M), 0.8850 (1.1BLN), 0.8900 (1.15BLN)
NZD/USD: 0.7870 (301M). GBP/USD: 1.6220 (252M), 1.6230 (598M)


ORDERS
EUR/USD bids 1.2600-05 and 1.2575-80
EUR/USD Offers 1.2700, 1.2720, 1.2730-40, 1.2750
USD/JPY bids 107.00-10, 106.80, 106.70, offers 107.45-50, 107.75-80
USD/CHF bids 0.9520, 0.9500, 0.9470, offers 0.9590-00.
EUR/JPY bids 135.50-60, stops, offers 136.40-50, 136.70, 137.00-10
AUD/USD bids 0.8650-70, offers 0.8750, 0.8780, 0.8795-00
USD/CAD bids 1.1150, 1.1120, offers 1.1200-10, 1.1230-40, 1.1260-

Today's Highlights:
USDJPY’s immediate risk stays lower for 106.81/55, potentially as far as 105.58/48.
EURJPY has declined to key support at 135.55/39, but with a break below here needed to mark a more important top....
EURUSD below 1.2583 should again expose the 1.2500/2460 support.
GBPUSD remains capped by the 50% retracement barrier and 21-day average at 1.6222/28
EURGBP is expected to try and attempt to turn lower again from “neckline” resistance at .7900/06.
USDCAD risk stays bullish for the 1.1280 high.
AUDUSD continues to hold key support at .8654/43.

 

[systematicfx]

Correlation table for the week.

 

[systematicfx]

GBP/USD-Decent UK jobs data could lend support
UK jobs & earnings figures due 0830GMT, 24 hours after soft UK CPI
Better than expected data could spur some profit-taking on GBP shorts
ILO jobless rate f/c 6.1%. Claimant count f/c -35k. Earnings f/c +0.7%
1.5878 = 11mth low for cable in Asia, 1.5920 = ensuing high water-mark
Offers tipped near 1.5950 (1.5953 = Oct 3 low, after strong US jobs data)
Cable was trading on 1.60 handle into 1.2% UK CPI shock


ORDERS-
EUR/USD a yard of 1.2605 and 1.27 expiries
EUR/USD bids 1.2620, 1.2600-10, stops, offers 1.2680, 1.2695-00
USD/JPY bids 106.75-80, 106.50-60, offers 107.60, 107.75-80
USD/CHF bids 0.9520, 0.9500, offers 0.9570, 0.9590-00
EUR/JPY bids 135.00-10, stops, offers 135.90-00, 136.20-25, 136.40-50

OPTIONS-Larger DTCC expiries for NY cut
AUD/USD: 0.8800 (329M).
EUR/USD: 1.2600 (367M), 1.2605 (1BLN), 1.2610 (353M)
1.2675-50 (300M), 1.2700 (1.24BLN), 1.2715 (750M)
EUR/GBP: 0.7960 (720M)
USD/JPY: 107.00 (850M), 107.20 (1BLN), 108.10-15 (600M)

 

[systematicfx]

EURUSD continues to correct higher, but we still look for resistance at 1.2996/3001 to turn the trend lower again.
GBPUSD above 1.6128 would allow a test of 1.6228 and through it is needed for a base.
USDJPY ideally stays capped below key resistance at 107.50/58.
NZDUSD spotlight stays on the downtrend and price resistance at .7987/99.
AUDUSD remains in a broad sideways range.
EURJPY immediate risk stays marginally lower while capped below 136.58/59.
USDCAD ideally holds above 1.1161/59 to keep its immediate uptrend.


Today: ECB's Coeure:

• Start to purchase assets within days
• Expects stronger take-up at Dec TLTRO. Sept take-up disappointed
• Sees positive euro zone growth in Q3, Q4
• EUR value not a monetary policy objective
• Governing council will take additional measures if needed

Today: ECB’s Nowotny
• Ecb's Nowotny Says Differnt Dynamic In Us, Europe To Have Impact On Exchange Rates
• Ecb's Nowotny Says Weaker Euro Tends To Boost Euro Zone Economy, Help Raise Inflation
• Ecb's Nowotny Says Countries Can Get More Time To Meet Deficit Targets Should They Adopt Structural Reforms
• Ecb's Nowotny Says Interest Rates Cannot Go Much Lower
• Ecb's Nowotny Says Austrian Banks Should Do Well In Stress Tests, One Bank Has Taken Precautionary Measures
• Ecb's Nowotny Says Uncertainty Expected To Be Reduced In November With New Banking Supervision, More Potential For Lending
• Ecb's Nowotny Says Situation With Banks Massively Better Than During Financial Crisis
• Ecb's Nowotny Says Nonsense To Speak Of Ecb As Bad Bank Amid Discussion Of Abs Purchase Programme


EUR/GBP-Dovish Haldane supports, 0.7985 resistance
BoE chief economist's dovish steer lends support to cross
Haldane unlikely to join Weale & McCafferty in voting for hike anytime soon
Minutes from October's MPC meeting will be published next week (Oct 22)
Dovish shift in UK rate expectations after Tuesday's CPI downside surprise
EUR/GBP offers touted at 0.7985 (rally high from Thurs 0.7948 low) & 0.80

ORDERS-
EUR/USD bids, 1.2780 and 1.2740-50
EUR/USD offers 1.2850, 1.2880-90, Opt Exp Incl a yard of 1.2740-50s
USD/JPY bids 105.80, 105.50-60, offers 106.50, 106.90-00
USD/CHF 0.9400, 0.9385-90, offers 0.9475-80
EUR/JPY bids 135.50-60, 135.40, 135.20, 135.00-10, offers 136.40-50
AUD/USD bids 0.8730, 0.8700-05, offers 0.8800, 0.8825-30, 0.8840-50

 

[systematicfx]

ORDERS-EUR/USD bids 1.2770, 1.2735-40, 1.2715-20
* EUR/USD Offers 1.2850, 1.2880-90, 1.2900, stops above
* USD/JPY bids 106.20, 106.00, offers 107.00, 107.20-30, 107.50
* USD/CHF 0.9400, 0.9385-90, 0.9365-70, offers 0.9450, 0.9475-80
* EUR/JPY bids 136.20, 136.00, 135.75-80, offers 136.80, 137.00, 137.10
* AUD/USD bids 0.8770, 0.8730-40, offers 0.8830, 0.8840-50
* USD/CAD bids 1.1250-60, 1.1220-30 offers 1.1290-00, 1.1325-30


GBP/USD-Offers touted pre-1.62, stops above
* Cable offers are touted ahead of 1.62, with stops tipped above the figure
* 1.6179 = Monday's high, 1.6186 = Asia high, 1.6189 = 30DMA
* 1.62 = 50% of 1.6525-1.5875. More stops tipped above 1.6226 (Oct 9 top)
* 1.6151 (Mon Ldn session high) is now a support level. 1.6153 = Asia low


OPTIONS-Larger DTCC expiries for NY cut
* AUD/USD: 0.8650 (323M), 0.8800 (139M). NZD/USD: 0.8105 (846M)
* USD/CAD: 1.1150 (335M), 1.1250 (190M)
* EUR/USD: 1.2700 (2.1BLN), 1.2750 (1BLN), 1.2800 (1.6BLN)
* USD/JPY: 106.25 (300M), 107.00 (885M), 107.50 (682M)