Forever Bull Market

[nitrene]

Yea, we have had the largest rally since the 80's without a correction.

A big rally in anticipation of Fed pivot is normal, so is a plunge when they begin. Maybe if they lower real slow it won't be so bad - I would not count on it.

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This is historically true due to the Fed lowering rates into a recession. There's too much money in the hopper for a real recession right now. In my opinion the recession already happened in 2022 Q1 & Q2 even though ECRI didn't call it as such.

In addition you still have a labor shortage which is usually a good sign of higher wages which is a positive to the current US economy. Its not as severe as post Spanish Flu or World War II but I think there is a similarity.

Your chart doesn't cover the 1994 mini Fed Pivot and due to the rise of telecom, semiconductors & eventually the Internet 1.0 craze the markets skyrocketed* into a March 2000 frenzy collapse. I see AI & the Wegovy/Ozempic bubble forming in a similar vain. Even cyber security has the makings of a bubble caused by AI deepfakes.

This market doesn't seem to want to go down for any sustained period of time. Hot CPI & PPI didn't derail it, however it did spike rates. It is a strange market for sure since the DXY keeps rising and commodities keep rising. I don't believe there will be a sustained recovery in China so Copper can only go so high. Does the rise of BTC & Gold portend Treasury auction problems? I don't know but the US since the pandemic seems to believe in the MMT crowd.

* There was a very real hiccup in 1997-8 during the Asian real estate crisis & Russian sovereign debt default along with the LTCM collapse.

 

[S2007S]

Yea, we have had the largest rally since the 80's without a correction.

A big rally in anticipation of Fed pivot is normal, so is a plunge when they begin. Maybe if they lower real slow it won't be so bad - I would not count on it.

View attachment 336652

That's the first time I have seen a chart of past fed pivots and market reactions. Now one thing I don't see is how long after those previous fed point pivots did those market declines occur??
Did those declines happen the same day the announcement took place? Or weeks later?
The market has literally gone parabolic in a straight line up since the fed pivot announcement in late October.

Those are some serious declines as well after each and every one of those pivots by the fed......

Again if the S&p fell 10% next week it would only bring us back to December 2023 levels. That's how Enormous this rally has been in such a tiny fraction of time. ...

 

[comagnum]

That's the first time I have seen a chart of past fed pivots and market reactions. Now one thing I don't see is how long after those previous fed point pivots did those market declines occur??
Did those declines happen the same day the announcement took place? Or weeks later?

The market tanked over the last 24 years right when the Fed begin lowering. They only lower when they broke something - not as gift to the stock market. This chart link below is more detailed.


https://www.crystalbull.com/stock-market-timing/Fed-Funds-Prime-Rate-chart/

 

[S2007S]

Even then most bearish bear wouldn't ever agree that this

The market tanked over the last 24 years right when the Fed begin lowering. They only lower when they broke something - not as gift to the stock market. This chart link below is more detailed.


https://www.crystalbull.com/stock-market-timing/Fed-Funds-Prime-Rate-chart/

Well too many are expecting the fed to give 3 gifted rate cuts this year and more in 2025.... I just find it amusing you can have Rates at 0% for years and and years and not one person saying we need to raise them, everyone aits quiet.....As soon as they raise them every one starts to scream how at a 5% funds rate, which is still historically low by past standards, that we need to immediately cut them.....why cut. If everyone is screaming how strong and resilient our economy why at the same time do they need rate cuts....

 

[Laissez Faire]

Yea, we have had the largest rally since the 80's without a correction.

How is that measured? Curious if I'm missing something, because I don't find that to be correct from my data (SPX).

Just prior to this current rally we had another very decent rally without a substantial correction (setting the threshold at 10 %).

October 2022 to July 2023: SPX gained 1115.49 points from bottom to top for a gain of 1115.49 / 3941.58 = 31.95 %.

July 2023 to October 2023: SPX corrected 503.29 points for a loss of 503.29 / 4606.07 = - 10.92 %.

October 2023 to present: SPX gained 1157.32 points for a gain of 1157.32 / 4103.78 = 28.2 %.

Impressive rally, but still not matching the October / July rally which peaked at + 31.95 %.

Jumping back to 2020, that was a huge non-stop rally from the bottom in March. A correction occurred in September, but from the bottom in October it was pretty much a non-stop pump to the ATH in January 2022 for a gain of + 50.14 %.

Is my math off somewhere?

 

[Zwaen]

I think it sometimes wise to try to predict the past, using the past. No one does this, for which I can see. But it can give a sense of the accuracy from this extrapolated results.

As a - baby statistic I know - rule, n<30 is pretty useless or a mindfart

 

[comagnum]

How is that measured? Curious if I'm missing something, because I don't find that to be correct from my data (SPX).

This is what I was referring to. This article was back in Feb, the winning streak has only gotten bigger since this was written.

https://markets.businessinsider.com...-rally-fed-economy-technical-indicator-2024-2

Last week , the S&P 500 touched 5,000 for the first time ever, and it's finished higher 14 out of the last 15 weeks. That's tied for the best streak of all time, and the longest in five decades.

 

[v-shape-0DTE]

Every record will be broken in terms of largest rally without any correction. There's just no other choice at this point.

NVDA is up 20% for the third consecutive month. Can you imagine. And there's no stoping that.

I look forward to posting in May, June, July etc.. how this still hasn't had a 5% pullback. There's a good chance of QQQ 500 happening this year too. There is really not a single thing on this planet that can stop this market.

 

[S2007S]

Every record will be broken in terms of largest rally without any correction. There's just no other choice at this point.

NVDA is up 20% for the third consecutive month. Can you imagine. And there's no stoping that.

I look forward to posting in May, June, July etc.. how this still hasn't had a 5% pullback. There's a good chance of QQQ 500 happening this year too. There is really not a single thing on this planet that can stop this market.

Nvda is going to have to have record breaking earnings quarter after quarter to sustain such a return month over month. One ever so slight miss and you see the most gigantic drop ever witnessed in nvda shares. ...

 

[v-shape-0DTE]

Nvda is going to have to have record breaking earnings quarter after quarter to sustain such a return month over month. One ever so slight miss and you see the most gigantic drop ever witnessed in nvda shares. ...

It's 2 months away. At this rate it will be the most valuable company. It's only had 1 red week all year and that was the first week of the year. It's up every single week. Like where else do you find free money like this. This will be the 12th consecutive green week. Why would they stop pumping this when so many are making money. This is not the past where they would leave you holding the bag. That risk doesn't exist in today's market. They actually want this to continue pumping.