Both reasonable statements/observations, but also well-known, longstanding, and thus likely fully priced in.
The bottom line is that large-cap indices can't sustain downward momentum for long without meaningful fresh (non-priced-in) catalysts - and if the indices can't go down, then they'll go up due to buybacks and automatic purchase activity from dividend reinvestments, 401(k)s and so on.
Right now in the Nasdaq is about the clearest bull setup you'll see in markets: a seven-month 50% rally to just below ATHs followed by a three-month, 10% correction attributed to a collection of mostly irrelevant or bullshit narratives - "rising yields" and more recently "Gaza war". There are no guarantees, but the odds strongly favor a major mark-up phase over the next 8-12 months. A negative shock (e.g. recession, huge spike in yields, or massive government spending cuts) could always occur and knock the markets off-course, but it seems at least equally likely that the stated period will see positive shocks/news - such as inflation coming down more sharply than expected, and the Fed opening the door to lower rates.
