Forecasting prices, and Mandelbrot is right.

Quote from stephencrowley:

... super high frequency data ...

There would be always another completely new generation of forecast modelling offering and promising a much better, if not perfect, performance that traders and researchers want. :cool:
 
Quote from jimrockford:


Mandelbrot has written extensively about volatility clustering in price changes, but he has never attempted to demonstrate that it is due to chaos.

I was really lost. Thanks for clearing that up for me.
 
Isn't there some limit? I mean, theoretically, if you had every quote and trade made in every market in the world in real time. What more could you get? Maybe you could start to try to find some factors that influenced people to make the decision to post that quote before they posted it and then forecast that.. but that's just getting wild.

Quote from OddTrader:

There would be always another completely new generation of forecast modelling offering and promising a much better, if not perfect, performance that traders and researchers want. :cool:
 
Just looked this up and read a brief amount, I'd say he's definately right, but nothing new. Bi-directional causality has been studied quite extensively in economics research. Also, this idea can be modeled with dynamical systems, etc.


Quote from OddTrader:

Reflexivity/ Feedback - According to Soros and many others.
 
lol. Being rich would be nice. My first goal is to be able to roll out of bed and make money sitting in my underwear. :D


Quote from OddTrader:

Looks like you'll be very rich soon. Good luck! :)
 
I work on my schedule, not yours, and I adjust it to suit myself.

Quote from Random.Capital:

What is this, a new thread? What happened to working night and day getting your 1% Solution up and running?
 
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