Too many false signals doing 4 hour time-frames, I find daily works best in charting. I use TA, but never in looking for tops or bottoms, one way to loose entire accounts for me was use TA for extremes. Get into trenches and study reversals, after couple years of hard work, you much less likely to post what you learn.
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Forecasting Index Market Tops
- Thread starter MrTraderBot
- Start date
I don't mind a volume approach. Trade management skills have to be top notch for this to work.
How do you create high accuracy on your decision to early exit / take loss? When do you know you're wrong?
I think hedging has its benefits for longer term positions like you're doing but won't help for trades or swings being stuck near the top of a move.
How do you create high accuracy on your decision to early exit / take loss? When do you know you're wrong?
I think hedging has its benefits for longer term positions like you're doing but won't help for trades or swings being stuck near the top of a move.
I have spent most of my life studying chart patterns and have identified over 20 formations that have over 51% chance of reversing. Most would say not high enough probability of trying the effort, but if you found ways to do so without loss or very small negative percentages, certainly it worth the effort. But is it worth retail accounts, costs money to make money, meaning you need more than small account to act upon for correct hedging.
I had been shorting Indexes for nearly 3 years before virus hit and caught move down on futures and hedged long dividend paying stocks.
Long term and even shorter swing trading is like fishing, you never know when the catch will be a whale or guppy, just got to be a monkey and keep putting on the trades and hedged.
All trading is forcasting, we have no cystal ball with exception of having all the answers in place before the questions. And took over 30 stabs at it and, can make some profits when you don't find overall huge trade.
Have to be patient.
My thought identifying overbought conditions to reversal was based on no longer using long scalp ideas in the short term (not to find short opp at the top). 4 hr more granular so maybe some extra data to read into the PA to support your forecast.
Whats the deal with the 4hr? Usually most people want the daily.
Reversal dates is old hat, there are guys around who have been doing it for over 10 yrs
There are a few who do price highs/lows as well but very rare.
Yea 4hr will open up false signals, daily may be a little behind for proactively slowing down on buys.
I don't think we should all organize everything we learn and share it in full detail but just some general concepts and thoughts to get everyone's brains moving never hurt.
I don't think we should all organize everything we learn and share it in full detail but just some general concepts and thoughts to get everyone's brains moving never hurt.
Too many false signals doing 4 hour time-frames, I find daily works best in charting. I use TA, but never in looking for tops or bottoms, one way to loose entire accounts for me was use TA for extremes. Get into trenches and study reversals, after couple years of hard work, you much less likely to post what you learn.
I like this one best so far.
To add I think tops start from uptrend channels, if price should continue in this uptrend channel then its move should be predictable over time. As price breaks this channel it usually goes range bound, momentum over time slows, price fails to break highs, and large volume is exhibited. The lack of something can sometimes be the best indicator.
To add I think tops start from uptrend channels, if price should continue in this uptrend channel then its move should be predictable over time. As price breaks this channel it usually goes range bound, momentum over time slows, price fails to break highs, and large volume is exhibited. The lack of something can sometimes be the best indicator.
But to give a small hint you might want to consider time and ranges.
Using time is tricky.
Time needs to be anchored to something. Preferably something dynamic and immutable. It could be based on the bar count of the last move/range/whatever, or maybe a time series analysis, a cyclic pattern, some market event, astrology/astronomy, tides, geomagnetic forces, you get the picture.
Done wrongly, using time is no different than using random Hz lines as support/resistance. The illusion of valid line placement will produce favorable outcomes. Same with time: the illusion of what seems a valid time anchor will produce favorable outcomes. Trading with consistent success is not possible (imo) based on such illusions.
Time needs to be anchored to something. Preferably something dynamic and immutable. It could be based on the bar count of the last move/range/whatever, or maybe a time series analysis, a cyclic pattern, some market event, astrology/astronomy, tides, geomagnetic forces, you get the picture.
Done wrongly, using time is no different than using random Hz lines as support/resistance. The illusion of valid line placement will produce favorable outcomes. Same with time: the illusion of what seems a valid time anchor will produce favorable outcomes. Trading with consistent success is not possible (imo) based on such illusions.
The daily is in sync with the natural calendar which makes it easier. None are going to disclose exactly how they do it.Yea 4hr will open up false signals, daily may be a little behind for proactively slowing down on buys.
I don't think we should all organize everything we learn and share it in full detail but just some general concepts and thoughts to get everyone's brains moving never hurt.
What you figure out is what you get.