Does anyone have a good method for forecasting implied volatility? Any insight is greatly appreciated.
Pro_Trader720
Pro_Trader720
Forecasting Implied Volatility
- Thread starter Pro_Trader720
- Start date
If you could forecast IV you would be a waelthy man 
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There are a lot of models used to forecast IV but in my opinion how good are they really? IV is subject to demand/suply whims in the underlying or specific option changing the price which then affects the IV that you would have a wide range of errors perpahs. Also accounting for intra month skews and skews across months would be hard.
I am sure market makers and big funds have their models but I bet they are no more accurate than what the market predicts through Black Scholes IV readings.
.There are a lot of models used to forecast IV but in my opinion how good are they really? IV is subject to demand/suply whims in the underlying or specific option changing the price which then affects the IV that you would have a wide range of errors perpahs. Also accounting for intra month skews and skews across months would be hard.
I am sure market makers and big funds have their models but I bet they are no more accurate than what the market predicts through Black Scholes IV readings.