Forecast SPX re 2023 Year End

[Businessman]

Nasdaq, Russell and S&P were down a lot last year (20% or more).

But the DJIA was down only 9%.

The reason was 12 Dow stocks that were positive and kept the index from falling more. Of those 12 only 7 were up more than 10%. And only 4 up more than 20%.

But the relatively strong Dow gives a more bullish vibe to things, makes it feel like things are not so bad in the US stock market, even though it was only a handful of stocks that kept the Dow relatively stronger.

The Dow also has a weird weighting algo, eg. Amgen has double the weighting as Apple. Even though Apple is 15x the market cap of Amgen.

 

[SunTrader]

Dow much like EC* is antiquated, outdated and past its relevancy. CNBC grey-haired investor/viewers eat it up. Traders/funds don't give it much thought.

*that is for another topic in another section.

 

[Overnight]

Dow much like EC* is antiquated, outdated and past its relevancy. CNBC grey-haired investor/viewers eat it up. Traders/funds don't give it much thought.

*that is for another topic in another section.

The Dow is just a thing, like any other thing. It moves, and thus is tradeable. Just because it is price-weighted does not mean it is invalid as compared to the other majors which are market-cap weighted.

What is the big deal? If you cannot stand it's ancient structure, then don't follow it/trade it.

 

[SunTrader]

The Dow is just a thing, like any other thing. It moves, and thus is tradeable. Just because it is price-weighted does not mean it is invalid as compared to the other majors which are market-cap weighted.

What is the big deal? If you cannot stand it's ancient structure, then don't follow it/trade it.

I don't.

 

[Shax]

Larry Williams' 2023 forecast, taken from his Jan. 4 video, predicts a rise in the first few months of the year and then a descent probably all the way into the fall.
The curious side, is that his forecast is completely opposite to that of Thomas Bulkowski, who predicts instead, a rise in the Market right from March and continuing throughout the year, as can be seen in his charts that I have included here:

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/forecast-spx-re-2023-year-end.371971/#post-5741251

Which of the 2 predictions will come closest to the reality of the Market? We will see soon....on these screens.

Larry Williams' forecast:

 

[Nine_Ender]

Larry Williams' 2023 forecast, taken from his Jan. 4 video, predicts a rise in the first few months of the year and then a descent probably all the way into the fall.
The curious side, is that his forecast is completely opposite to that of Thomas Bulkowski, who predicts instead, a rise in the Market right from March and continuing throughout the year, as can be seen in his charts that I have included here:

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/forecast-spx-re-2023-year-end.371971/#post-5741251

Which of the 2 predictions will come closest to the reality of the Market? We will see soon....on these screens.

Larry Williams' forecast:

My opinion trying to time the choppiness in broader markets in 2023 is impossible but the chances of a moderately positive year are quite high. So buying quality stocks in things like banking, manufacturing, energy, base metals are good buys with selective entries ( range bound for now ). For example, I loved JPM under $110 ( especially at $102 ) but I'm not buying it at $143. Bank of Nova Scotia is sold off a lot might be a buy, I haven't looked at it to see if it's now or later. In 2022, stocks like car parts companies and base metal companies were great buys on the massive dips because they priced in a massive recession. Earnings were huge beats on stocks like MDI ( major drilling ) and MRE ( auto parts ) the stocks got way too cheap.