Forecast SPX re 2023 Year End

[schizo]

My little finger tells me +5% for the SPX.

But any high vol will be welcome.

You should get rid of your little finger. 2023 will be the year of STAGFLATION (inflation + recession). I expect market chops of epic proportion, probably nothing that we've ever experienced.

 

[murray t turtle]

-15% at year end (but the low for the year could be much lower )

Multi year bear markets happen on average about once every 20 to 25 years.

One is about due, and given how inflated the bubble was i think this current bear market will contain at least 2 down years.

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Mr. Shax/Bulkowski has the DOW/DIA forecast for 2023, mostly up. Did forecast fairly well for DOW/DIA in \2008/2009. Most likely right +not really a prediction. That why thy call it weather forecasting, + not weather prediction.
Sometimes its hard to read someone else's charts, but i measured on yours{- 20% down for 2022}, which is real close to SPX\SPY downtrend in 2022
Say JAN finishes down for SPY\ down year most likely for SPX\SPY.
Stock Traders Almanac, 50 years to100 years \down JAN\88% chance of down year for S& P 500\SPY.

 

[Businessman]

They are saying low risk bonds are currently returning over 10%.
So the risky stock market doesn't look appealing in comparison..

I mean back when rates were almost zero, the line was "there is no where else to park your money, the stock market is the only game in town.."

 

[deaddog]

They are saying low risk bonds are currently returning over 10%.

Which bonds? Who are they

 

[Businessman]

Which bonds? Who are they

I heard a few commentators say this, people like Gundlach, i dont really know enough about bonds to tell which ones they were talking about.

 

[SunTrader]

Secondary markets (such as TSX) are most of the time swayed by the majors.

CL LOD (so far) is $74.31 doesn't bode well for up north. A least for the foreseeable future.

 

[Businessman]

Santa Rally is the last five sessions of the year and first two sessions of the new year.

Santa Rally was only about 0.7% in the S&P this year, typically after the end of bear markets it is around 5%.

All of the Santa rally came today, up 0.75%. The other six days were flat.

Still it wasn't a Santa Selloff, so not a bearish indicator either.

 

[Overnight]

Santa Rally is the last five sessions of the year and first two sessions of the new year.

Santa Rally was only about 0.7% in the S&P this year, typically after the end of bear markets it is around 5%.

All of the Santa rally came today, up 0.75%. The other six days were flat.

Still it wasn't a Santa Selloff, so not a bearish indicator either.

The bear market trend will not end until Powell says so.

End of line.

 

[murray t turtle]

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GS forecasted 2023+4% from 2022 close, WSJ.[S&P500\SPY]. DIA/DOW= fair uptrend.
Main SPY trend is still down\down below 200 day moving average past 52 weeks.;
+ SPY closing down , again. NOT a stock tip.
One female asset manager in WSJ figured a 2023 merry go round until Fed cut rates

 

[SunTrader]

+0.7% Guess some came up with a new definition of Rally - Santa variety or otherwise?

Opening gap down wiped that out pronto.