Forecast SPX re 2023 Year End

N

Nine_Ender

Guessing where markets will end up in a year is always difficult but let's put some guesses down. A fair number of traders are already talking a 30% down year I'm expecting a moderate up year with the TSX outperforming the SPX.

My forecast is SPX closes at 4220 ( up 10% ) and the TSX at 22097 ( up 14% ).

Bragging rights if the bears on here can not only call a correction/crash but determine if it sticks by year end.
 
USDJPY said:
Why not try forecasting the move of the ES at 9:30? Can make more money if you do it day after day.
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Longer term forecasts can help set a framework for effective trading with an eye on overall risk management. I use the SPX as a proxy on what broader markets may do short term and likely turns in broader markets. I haven't had US index exposure since 2019 except for maybe a dozen day trades the longest being a 3 day hold on AMZN. I might have been short QQQ for two days at one point.

From 2010-2019 I was a passive "investor" just swinging in and out of broader market exposure ( US or Cdn ) based on long term technicals. It worked well for me with minimal risk of capital. Built up a nice capital base with minimal time spent. What I took out of that is a long term chart on NA indexes is really useful.
 
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-15% at year end (but the low for the year could be much lower )

Multi year bear markets happen on average about once every 20 to 25 years.

One is about due, and given how inflated the bubble was i think this current bear market will contain at least 2 down years.

Screenshot 2023-01-02 at 23.27.21.png
 
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Here are the 2023 forecasts of the U.S. stock markets, based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith who said in the 1930s that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle, that is, each year tended to repeat the behavior corresponding to the annuality of the previous decade.
In other words, if you averaged all the years ending with 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), you would get a forecast for 2011. For 2012, one would make a similar average, using only 2002, 1992, 1982 and so on:

https://thepatternsite.com/JanForecast23.html








Of course, if the Market were to have such a trend, trading would definitely be easier. :)
 
Shax said:
Here are the 2023 forecasts of the U.S. stock markets, based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith who said in the 1930s that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle, that is, each year tended to repeat the behavior corresponding to the annuality of the previous decade.
In other words, if you averaged all the years ending with 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), you would get a forecast for 2011. For 2012, one would make a similar average, using only 2002, 1992, 1982 and so on:

https://thepatternsite.com/JanForecast23.html








Of course, if the Market were to have such a trend, trading would definitely be easier. :)
More...
Averaging all the years how far back?
 
Larry Williams also uses the 10-year cycle for his forecasts, and in his book: The Right Stock at the Right Time, he wrote that Gaubis and Smith observed the repetition of this 10-year pattern already since the early 1900s, and their analysis had started in 1854.
 
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