Forbes: GOOG could fall 50% in 2006

[murray t turtle]

Quote from Maverick74:

My guess is GOOG peaks out somewhere around $1,200 a share. Not sure when that will be. That would give them a market cap around 400 billion. CSCO at their peak I believe had a 550 billlion market cap and had no where near the monopoly GOOG has.

The bottom line is this. If GOOG had been splitting their stock all the way up and was only a $40 stock now, you guys wouldn't even be talking about it. It's only because GOOG is trading at such a large number that you figure it's too high. Right now GOOG is shattering every record on the books for a company in this country since its existence. No company has ever grown this fast and had this kind of monopoly on a commodity that most of us would agree is the most valuable in the world. Yes, even more valuable then oil.

This company is being run by some of the smartest guys on the planet and these guys are not going to stop till they own and control every piece of information and media in the world. If I had to put a price tag on that, I would say, I don't know, 10 trillion? Give or take. So a 400 billion market cap seems about right to me. This is the greatest growth story ever. I'm sure their will be sharp pullbacks along the way as well as many many downgrades.

Keep in mind, the only reason theses analysts are downgrading the stock is so they can put their customers back in it later, nice double commission setup. Anyway, good luck to all the longs and shorts in this stock. It's a great trading vehicle.

=========
Maverick you have had some timely comments/GOOG;
even though i use YHOO [website] more,
agree with sharing some profits with the market makers or specialists.

Wouldnt get in any hurry however ;
10 minutes or more till regular close

 

[easyguru]

Google at $2,000 seen as a possibility by Caris' Stahlman (GOOG) By Leslie Wines
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Shares of Google Inc. (GOOG) could achieve an implied value of $2,000 apiece, according to Caris & Co. analyst Mark Stahlman, who stressed that that figure is not an official price target. Stahlman also wrote in a research note that Google's long-term sales could hit $100 billion, contrasting with estimated 2006 sales of $9 billion. The analyst expects the company to find new ways to participate in the financial services and healthcare, and believes future work in those fields will power the expected sales gains.

!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!

 

[flyingiguana]

Quote from traderNik:

I can't tell you how entertaining it is for me to think about how many millions will be lost shorting this stock. You don't have to be wrong to lose lots o' cash shorting GOOG. Every time I read a new thread in which someone is posting saying "Now is the time to short GOOG", I wonder where he first got short and how far underwater he is.

Contrarians make money in this game, right? Or is it those who 'see money lying in a corner and go over and pick it up'? Short GOOG ain't money lying in a corner just yet. What I don't get is, why don't shorts just wait for the stock to break down?

PS - not saying the OP is advocating GOOG as a short, but the columnist seems to be.

i'd short when you start to see a loss of momentum in their earnings or margins. but also have to consider how the market is moving cuss you might end up early to the party with a nice margin call before the drop

 

[marketsurfer]

yes, he is correct. holding shorts at this time. see surf report for detail entry info.

surfer

 

[empee]

ironically ive only traded this stock from the short side and made money (very little relatively to the long side) but its the only good entries I could ever get, I would say I took out a total of maybe 30-40 pts swinging, I'll post when I'm ready to short again but now isnt the time.

 

[capmac]

GOOG Google downgraded to Sell from Hold at S&P, thinks GOOG still faces risks such as click fraud, competition - Bloomberg TV (467.11 ) -Update-

 

[krazykarl]

Quote from capmac:

GOOG Google downgraded to Sell from Hold at S&P, thinks GOOG still faces risks such as click fraud, competition - Bloomberg TV (467.11 ) -Update-

It wasn't S&P, it was Stifel Nicolaus.

They initiated coverage around 300 with a 'hold' - the analyst was on cnbc this morning and provided his logic for the downgrade: lack of growth.

In all honesty, this guy is nuts. google has a monopoly on efficent on-line advertising and is just breaking into China. I don't have any position in GOOG, but it really gets to me when someone feels the need to downgrade an issue just for the sake of being contrarian - YHOO missed so someone thought it was a good time to jump on the 'google-is-going-to-crash' bandwagon.

If google misses numbers, then downgrade them - until you have something more then speculation and "feeling that google cannot sustain growth", please keep your thoughts to yourself - the sheep do not know any better then to listen.


Sorry for the rant.

 

[krazykarl]

just saw S&P gave it a downgrade too. my bad.

 

[RunTrade]

Quote from krazykarl:

It wasn't S&P, it was Stifel Nicolaus.

They initiated coverage around 300 with a 'hold' - the analyst was on cnbc this morning and provided his logic for the downgrade: lack of growth.

In all honesty, this guy is nuts. google has a monopoly on efficent on-line advertising and is just breaking into China. I don't have any position in GOOG, but it really gets to me when someone feels the need to downgrade an issue just for the sake of being contrarian - YHOO missed so someone thought it was a good time to jump on the 'google-is-going-to-crash' bandwagon.

If google misses numbers, then downgrade them - until you have something more then speculation and "feeling that google cannot sustain growth", please keep your thoughts to yourself - the sheep do not know any better then to listen.


Sorry for the rant.

lack of growth = larger chance of missing its numbers. ESPECIALLY for goog who has very hard numbers to hit.

conclusion: the guy isnt nuts. He knows what he's talking about. Thats why he's the analyst.


RT


PS: my unprofessional opinion (still the same since november) is that goog will miss their numbers in the 4th. My estimates were that they needed around 28-30% revenue growth from the 3rd qtr. Aint gonna happen

 

[krazykarl]

Quote from RunTrade:

lack of growth = larger chance of missing its numbers. ESPECIALLY for goog who has very hard numbers to hit.

conclusion: the guy isnt nuts. He knows what he's talking about. Thats why he's the analyst.

I apologize for not stating my point clearly.

The analyst has nothing to base his "lack of growth" assessment on except speculation. The analyst "sees growth slowing" but does not present data to substanciate his claim.