For you guys that think we are not going further south...?!?!

S

SoyUnGanador

How could you be thinking we have bottomed at this point?

1. Inflation seems to have not been tamed, not at all.

2. The Fed seems 100% focused not on making sure inflation is killed (they were not so focused in the past it seems). They are going to keep hiking rates. Ruthlessley. Which cannot be good for earnings.

3. The Fed-Ex earnings report I hear was absolutely horrible, not just for Fed-Ex but for what it is saying about the economy in the near/mid term. That it is going to be awful.

So if you are one of these guys, how are you getting to the conclusion we have bottomed? You think there will not be a recession? Or you think the recession, and possibly huge drops in earnings, is already priced into the market? Or the squiggles you are seeing on your charts are just telling you we are at/near a bottom?

If we go into a full-blown recession, with earnings dropping hugely basically across the board, I just don't see why we wouldn't drop much further just like with prior recessions.

Thanks!
 
Yeah, I agree don't think any reasonable person recommends predicting something and than sitting on that trade regardless of what happens or changes. There still are some pretty high probability things to keep in mind though and one is that all the news buyers in the July run up are very like to get squeezed at least down to the June lows and if we do make it there, it's unlikely that holds for very long.

We could always regain 09/07/2022 lows on ES/NQ and if so I will temporarily lighten up on bearish bias, because could certainly cause a temporary short lived move up, prior to retesting June lows.
 
SoyUnGanador said:
How could you be thinking we have bottomed at this point?

1. Inflation seems to have not been tamed, not at all.

2. The Fed seems 100% focused not on making sure inflation is killed (they were not so focused in the past it seems). They are going to keep hiking rates. Ruthlessley. Which cannot be good for earnings.

3. The Fed-Ex earnings report I hear was absolutely horrible, not just for Fed-Ex but for what it is saying about the economy in the near/mid term. That it is going to be awful.

So if you are one of these guys, how are you getting to the conclusion we have bottomed? You think there will not be a recession? Or you think the recession, and possibly huge drops in earnings, is already priced into the market? Or the squiggles you are seeing on your charts are just telling you we are at/near a bottom?

If we go into a full-blown recession, with earnings dropping hugely basically across the board, I just don't see why we wouldn't drop much further just like with prior recessions.

Thanks!
More...


Well,
if you're looking at the real economy to obtain an edge against the stock market, a recession with inflation doesn't point to a nice picture; however, a recession length is statistically in the 9-16 months range depending on the recession's definition you prefer.

So, even in the case of a declining market in the next 3-5 months caused by Fed's rates increases, you can expect a rebound in the following period. Just consider the 6 months after each rate increase and find the probability of a new low, new high, and no movement. Then allocate your capital to each scenario and wait to see if your bet is right; markets are always moving, these time are not different from usual recessive patterns...
 
SoyUnGanador said:
How could you be thinking we have bottomed at this point?

1. Inflation seems to have not been tamed, not at all.

2. The Fed seems 100% focused not on making sure inflation is killed (they were not so focused in the past it seems). They are going to keep hiking rates. Ruthlessley. Which cannot be good for earnings.

3. The Fed-Ex earnings report I hear was absolutely horrible, not just for Fed-Ex but for what it is saying about the economy in the near/mid term. That it is going to be awful.

So if you are one of these guys, how are you getting to the conclusion we have bottomed? You think there will not be a recession? Or you think the recession, and possibly huge drops in earnings, is already priced into the market? Or the squiggles you are seeing on your charts are just telling you we are at/near a bottom?

If we go into a full-blown recession, with earnings dropping hugely basically across the board, I just don't see why we wouldn't drop much further just like with prior recessions.

Thanks!
More...




Relax El Manicero, there is NO bottom in sight. Even in 2023 there will be no bottom in sight. But don't forget to play the voluptous bear rallies! Downlegs are main courses, rallies are desserts. Play BOTH


Cuba might be the only safe place on Earth during the BEAR. Why? HE be partial to the Mizik and the fine people


 
10yr yield printed a 3rd consecutive weekly green candle. No kidding, right.

The Fed is all, been that way since before the Great Recession.

It helps to sometimes look at line on close chart. Does anyone think $SPX looks bullish currently?

And stop the with the nonsense inverse H&S, Cup&Handle, Schoolyard Wedgie, Flying Spaghetti Monster patterns. :) Price for once.
!SPX line on close.png
 
There is chance prior to FOMC meeting that S&P500 will rise to some extent but not that much. But it is also to say this behavior reversed since Powell. Here are some charts attached for you interest.
FOMC Statement price progression chart.jpg
FED_Day_Performance_2019-12-10.png
 
Here is $SPX with FOMC dates noted.

BTW June 17th low was one trading day before Summer Solstice. And this coming week's FOMC announcement is one trading day before the Fall Equinox, for anyone who follows such stuff. Seasonal quarters work with Ags but haven't found it as helpful with financials.

!SPX FOMC dates.png
 
SoyUnGanador said:
How could you be thinking we have bottomed at this point?

1. Inflation seems to have not been tamed, not at all.

2. The Fed seems 100% focused not on making sure inflation is killed (they were not so focused in the past it seems). They are going to keep hiking rates. Ruthlessley. Which cannot be good for earnings.

3. The Fed-Ex earnings report I hear was absolutely horrible, not just for Fed-Ex but for what it is saying about the economy in the near/mid term. That it is going to be awful.

So if you are one of these guys, how are you getting to the conclusion we have bottomed? You think there will not be a recession? Or you think the recession, and possibly huge drops in earnings, is already priced into the market? Or the squiggles you are seeing on your charts are just telling you we are at/near a bottom?

If we go into a full-blown recession, with earnings dropping hugely basically across the board, I just don't see why we wouldn't drop much further just like with prior recessions.

Thanks!
More...
WTF??! The guy who until last week couldn't stop screaming "SELL EVERYTHING AND GO LONG!!" is now crying "GO SHORT!"

Great. It's time to flip and go long. Thanks for the heads up. :D
 
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