I've often commented that I'm in the elliot=astology camp; that being said, I respect those EW practitioners who seem to get it to work for them.
However, a while back I also mentioned that the closest objective study I've personally seen was in a TA Stock Comm Mag. Rather than call it EW, he simply uses fractals (i.e. objective math).
Now, going back to this very old post, I recall he projected a 25-30% drop on major indices (which at the time seemed ludicrous - i.e. around mid 07). Oddly, he was spot on (although it was worse).
Granted, I fully accept that it could have been completely due to chance; I just liked that his method was an objective one.
However, in the context of his findings, he projected an outside fractal that would crush that drop to the upside. Now, considering the comments on hyperinflation (i.e. latest jim rogers), it doesn't seem so ludicrous. Add to that a small argument I posted some time back about increasing economic growth period (and decreasing recessionary period) trends and it makes for an plausible idea.
If anyone wants to try to replicate (and is capable of programming/translating ideas) his study, PM me. I warn you, however, there are areas that are a bit hand wavy, and I corresponded with him to get the reasons, and I'm still not certain I understand if his reply was all that objective.
I briefly tried to replicate, but couldn't match results because I didn't understand part of his logic; however, it is something I might look at again.
http://www.traders.com/Documentation/Feedbk_docs/2007/04/Abstracts_new/Williamson/william.html
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time stamp:09-04-07 11:58 PM
However, a while back I also mentioned that the closest objective study I've personally seen was in a TA Stock Comm Mag. Rather than call it EW, he simply uses fractals (i.e. objective math).
Now, going back to this very old post, I recall he projected a 25-30% drop on major indices (which at the time seemed ludicrous - i.e. around mid 07). Oddly, he was spot on (although it was worse).
Granted, I fully accept that it could have been completely due to chance; I just liked that his method was an objective one.
However, in the context of his findings, he projected an outside fractal that would crush that drop to the upside. Now, considering the comments on hyperinflation (i.e. latest jim rogers), it doesn't seem so ludicrous. Add to that a small argument I posted some time back about increasing economic growth period (and decreasing recessionary period) trends and it makes for an plausible idea.
If anyone wants to try to replicate (and is capable of programming/translating ideas) his study, PM me. I warn you, however, there are areas that are a bit hand wavy, and I corresponded with him to get the reasons, and I'm still not certain I understand if his reply was all that objective.
I briefly tried to replicate, but couldn't match results because I didn't understand part of his logic; however, it is something I might look at again.
http://www.traders.com/Documentation/Feedbk_docs/2007/04/Abstracts_new/Williamson/william.html
-------------------------------
time stamp:09-04-07 11:58 PM