For profitable traders only...how much is your strategy worth?

smallfil said:
Considering top hedge fund managers who actually trade the stockmarket earn billions of dollars from their fees plus 25% of their funds earnings, why would they give the store away? If you want a piece, they will demand tens of millions of your monies charge you fees on top of their 25% of the earnings. You will get a decent return on your monies which is pretty much it.
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Why would I want to buy a strategy from these hedge fund? My strategy involved taking money from these hedge funds. Where they have billions of dollar vs my smaller amount. My advantage is I can move my money in and out quicker from some of these stocks when these hedge fund established their position which will takes days and weeks. Guess who will win?
 
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Pekelo said:
Everything has a price. Since neither you nor your kids will make X MM with your strategy you would be prudent to sell it for that much, plus taxes. Otherwise you are an idiot. Well, you might be an idiot anyway...
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Sweet Bobby sells a naked put on shares under $20. Further he's an incel so he's going to need to save a lot of those 0.30 premiums to rent a babymaker.
 
schweiz said:
Don't have too high expectations. I had already 2 failures (2 of my children failed in trading), still one to go...
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%%
Well good thing that IS a small sample;
the number is small, not the mind of the kids.:D:D. Swing position trading is not near as stressful as day trading.

Using discretion in most anything, i saw a 5 year old kid get on a pay the porpoise ride, past 7 days,she told her dad she needed some money,dad said its working fine LOL. Not every trend is a big trend, so i told that 5 year old ''its working just fine:caution::caution:'':D:D[NO charge]
 
Your upper bound is determined by how volatile the assets you can trade are and what your maximum firing rate in and out is. So anyone claiming 10% a year is consistently impossible needs to justify cos it looks off market. If you have no hardware other than a cpu and can only trade with illegals on the internet but still wanna try you can. Id say 20%-30% a day might be an upper bound under these conditions but people are usually wrong when they predict what's possible.

double Symbols[50000]
double Ticket[5000][2][2];double Price[5000][2][2];
double orders_total;
int orders_total[2][2];int delta[2][2];int i;int j;int k;int l;
int Y[100][2][2];
int ticket;int type;double price;string symbol;double lots;
int ArraySize_sybols;
int OnInit(){EventSetMillisecondTimer(1);ArraySize_s=ArraySize(s);}
void OnTimer(){
i=0;
ArrayFill(delta,0,WHOLE_ARRAY,0);
ArrayFill(delta,0,WHOLE_ARRAY,0);
ArrayFill(Price,0,WHOLE_ARRAY,0);ArrayFill(Price,0,WHOLE_ARRAY,0);
ArrayFill(Ticket,0,WHOLE_ARRAY,0);ArrayFill(Ticket,0,WHOLE_ARRAY,0);
orders_total=OrdersTotal();ArraySize_symbols=ArraySize(symbols);
Y[5000][50][2]; Price[50000][50][2]; Ticket[50000][50][2] {
OrderSelect(i,SELECT_BY_POS);price=OrderOpenPrice();ticket=OrderTicket();type=OrderType();symbol=OrderSymbol();
j=0;
while(j<ArraySize_symbols)
{
if(symbol==s[j])
{
orders_total[j,type]+=1;
Price[orders_total[j,type]-1,j,type]=price;
Ticket[orders_total[j,type]-1,j,type]=ticket;
}
j+=1;
}
i+=1;
}
while(j<array_size_symbols)
{
k=0;
while(k<array_size_type)
{
i=0;
while(i<orders_total[j,k])
{
l=i+1
while(l<orders_total[j,k])
{
Y[i,j,k]+=(Price[i,j,k]>=Price[i,j,k])*(k==OP_BUY)+(Price[i,j,k]<=Price[i,j,k])*(k==OP_SELL);
Y[l,j,k]+=(Price[l,j,k]<Price[i,j,k])*((k==OP_BUY))+(Price[i,j,k]>Price[i,j,k])*(k==OP_SELL);
}
Price[i,j,k]=Price[Y[i,j,k],j,k];
Ticket[i,j,k]=Ticket[Y[i,j,k],j,k];
k+=1;
}
j+=1;
}
j=0
EventKillTimer();
while(1){
while(j<ArraySize_Symbols)
{
while(marketinfo(s[j],k)<Price[orders_total[j,k],j,k]+profit_margin[j,k];)
{
k=Mod(array_size_type,k+1);
}
j=Mod(array_size_symbols,j+1);
}
OrderClose(orders_total[j,k],j,k);orders_total[j,k]-=1;
}
 
You can talk all you want about risk management but if we know 10 assets move 30% a day clearly its not close to optimal. Not sure exactly that im clear why you are the idiot if you say more than 6% is possible. Often they say you are violating the efficient market or everyone would do it. I don't think this is a problem. This doesn't violate efficient markets. Expectations over stopping times are not martingales unless the stopping time has very special properties. Now in Euclidean space you get away with this because with options you are bounded above by the intrinsic value. So the eigenfunction decomposition will converge uniformly. This is rare. Continuous barriers are not even theoretically complete in that space neither are optional stopping times in spot positions. Someone once said 'you trade vix, but isn't fix quite efficient.' Like they think efficient market sounds clever but they don't actually know what it means. It is a statement relating to the existence and uniqueness of an eigen-basis for solutions to the heat equation under special conditions. The key condition is the convexity of the space over time and it must be bounded below for the uniform convergence to stand a chance. So in vix, there are many problems with this the first is you can't create a measure to take expectations over so there is no chance. Two vix is not a solution to any sort of pde like this. The drag is a consequence of the complex exponential having poles so gives residues in the remainder. In any case vix is the square root of a var swap so when people tell me they could replicate vix they mean they can't. Its precisely that its not a var swap that causes the instability. The square root of logarithms are getting into dangerous waters but I will say this usually when you are told a market is efficiently priced, you know a lot of money can be made. Vix has negative vol of vol gamma as you know and negative gamma wrt to changes in the shape of the curve so I wouldn't think 1/k^2 notional of calls and puts are a good idea. The fixings are essentially singularities, u know this because you have positive gamma between fixings between the fix when you are short a vol/var swap In a var swap however you take a limit of fixings but (log(S-S))^2 does tend to t. It doesn't work with a vol swap. Its unlikely they will be able to get close to a theory for pricing vix options because they have no nice properties, they decay differently in different areas, they have risk reversal dynamics that move wrong. I don't think we are there yet this doesn't have nice curvature properties for which you need for preserving structures like completeness under measure transformations. The Vix is not an efficient market so that is not evidence that you can't make the amounts I claim from it.
 
On the subject of returns the other one i like is return is inversely proportional to volatility so its easy to get high returns but you you are always goign to assume huge risks. A few things on this. it sounds like it might be important if it is true for a generalized continuous random processes so probably worth notifying the clay institute. The data shows significant correlation with high volatility and bad returns of asset managers. If it says anything on the subject, the theory on this stuff says volatility is independent of returns so im not sure. Again not sure where this comes from maybe its one of those statements that are not true or false like Godel was saying. Last diversification. I hear people say my best performing traders are never the same two years in a row like this is a good thing. It's not a good thing. Diversification of strategies is not good. What is one strategy buy one stock. The idea is whatever you call it, however you split it up, you need to make drastically different returns to something like shorting an etf or buying the stock market. If you don't that's really bad, its not okay to have years where 'quant' doesnt perform. That's literally the job otherwise what about euro usd, that has good and bad years.
 
also on efficient markets i don't like the sound of it but some people may say it means there is all the information in the price or some other nonsense. all im saying is if markets were efficient, say, like in the text books, that would not imply anything about what returns are possible from a set of trading rules. not sure how the two are related. you can make up rules that make a lot of money from a lognormal brownian motion obviously.
 
one valuable strategy is the so called nuclear snowballer which relies on the specifics of the how volatility etf's trade, their size and inelasticity to capital inflows. It is reistant to all broker margining warfare techniques and cost nothing to run. It sits at rest most of the time but i consider it a useful strategic weapon.
 
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