For Directional traders

Rob on Business,

Yes. I do have a lot more trades nowadays. Not all of them are the same though. I have longer term trades and shorter term trades. Shorter term trades seem to be working better for me at this time. The good thing about them (shorter term trades) is I have them only for 3 to 5 days so, if it moves hopefully to the upside a decent amount---I am out of it!!!
I know of trades I lost the gains because of "greed". Also, I try to focus on what trades I have open and ignore the past trades which are losers other than for post mortem analysis. No sense in beating one's self over one's mistakes.
 
After a very nice run of calls and puts on DNA, I got smoked on an unexpected reversal. Now that I'm down to $268 in my acc't, I figure the tactics of a desperate man might be interesting to follow, hence I'll be posting my picks and plays, til I either die or break $5k.
ISE came to my attention this a.m. through Cramer's MadMoney Recap, and it looks like a freshly revived stock much like AX has been, and sitting at what looks like a bottom. Bought an ISE Jan30 call late day @$1.50. Stochs is bottomed and volume looks hot. Feels as if it's just been rediscovered and traders will play with it.
DNA seems to be losing strength, as does BBY, GOOG and possibly AX. I think the markets are weakening in general right now, vol. is dropping off and traders are not sure where to put their passion. Tomorrow's Fed report should cause some response one way or the other.

Happy Trades...
 
Rob on Business,

Looking at ISE's stock chart, it seems headed up after 4 losing days. No guarantees on anything though. I had 5 contracts on XTO MI and reversed course and sold this morning and sold at $2.10 (bought it a $2.30 yesterday). That is about a $100.00 loss. XTO went up over a dollar today and I bought 100 shares for my 401K plan and 5 contracts of XTO AI, Jan. 2006 $45 call. Got in at $2.50 a contract and closed today at $2.65. I heard on the news that it may be a takeover candidate which is why the stock price moved to the upside. In any case, I think the long term trend for XTO is up.
Good luck on your trading.
 
No guarantees? Aw, c'mon!!:D I'm surprised to hear you use that word in this kind of activity! I see a strong pattern in ISE and I guess that's what I rely on for the degree of certainty I need. Looking at your XTO, it looks fraught with volatility - lots of green and red days intermixed - I admire your ability to read the direction. If I find a stock that moves rather sequentially from day to day and the candles overlap quite a bit, I've been able to ride the direction with a call or put, and hold the opposite pos'n overnight each night I think it will overlap. Was doing that with DNA a bit and making good money once I figured out the strategy. Of course, I've nothing to brag about since I lost it all. I'm one who likes to take risks and I don't think I could sit in front of the P/C day after day merely working rather predictable selling and buying spreads for what I suspect is a relatively low return. I realize I like gambling too much for my own good and it requires uncomfortable discipline to make sure everything within my understanding points to a trade before I fire - it sort of takes the fun out a bit - as if I should be rewarded for the more uncertainty I risk! But, if I'm going to make anything, the only way is to make sure.
 
Rob on Business,

I use the term "without guarantees" because even if you analyze stocks and feel that you have say a 80-90% chance of being successful----the other 10% can still wack you!!!
XTO is the the example. We (me and my friend trade the options (puts, XTO MI) on a 3 to 5 day swing trade as the longer term trade is up----goes down two days then, reverses to the upside. We sell out of the puts and buy calls just yesterday at a small loss. Did we make the right decision? I think so. The calls we bought was as high as $3.60 today----we bought it yesterday at $2.50.
Now, not all trades work out the same.
NUS XW which I had for about 3 months, I had to sell at a huge loss as the stock would drop 0.25 each day and the option is stagnant. Gave it plenty of time though, but, time comes to get out when you are wrong!!!
 
Rob on Business,

ISE is down slightly. I think based on the charts----it should go higher. Remember the no guarantees thing? If it stays negative today----I believe it would go lower. That is just the thing----we all have to adjust to the stocks as it trades and not the other way around. I would rather be wrong and make money (XTO) than, be right and lose money like in my NUS XW option. Option doesn't move and the stock just drops slightly day after day. Hindsight, I should probably have gone long and bought calls on NUS when it was not going anywhere.
 
Quote from smallfil:

That is just the thing----we all have to adjust to the stocks as it trades and not the other way around.
More...
I couldn't agree more - I like the way you are playing the directions - that is my ultimate goal - to be able to eke out as much from a given stock's movement in the way of option trades as possible.
Yes, ISE is slow this a.m. and as you said, worthy of dumping if it's a down day. AX that Multi was playing seems to have fallen out of pattern, and I completely forgot about the upcoming E.R. on BBY that he just posted he was hot on, otherwise I would have mentioned it to him. I sure hope he is successful and can show us some good trading leads or strategies. There's not many of us directional hotrodders left.

Happy Trades...
 
ISE has not been doing what I expected, only creeping when I expected it to rise sharply, and losing money on the option. I don't know why it faltered, other than a sister stock - AX, is failing badly today, perhaps on diminishing volume in the markets in general, seeing as these are "exchange" companies. Even though it may shoot up tomorrow in a delayed action, I have to stick to my plan, being to only trade my expectations, not my hopes. Sold 1 ISE Jan.30 call @$1.35 for a $17 loss at market close. Acc't @$232.
The only thing I have a substantial idea about is the Nasdaq's correcting over the next few days, so I bought 3 QQQQ Jan.41 puts @$0.40 at market close. The daily candlestick chart shows a pattern of declines of a few days after a few strong green candles on a fairly regular basis. I also feel a growing lack of good trading news over the last 2 weeks (which the chart seems to reflect) and know of no significant upcoming events to expect a bullish response to. We shall see...
There are some other options I'd like to play, but don't have enough funds to get in where I'd like. BA, OXY, and possibly SIRI are bullish now. I still believe in DNA, will wait til it resumes its uptrend if I have enough funds to get in at that point, if it bounces off a $94 resistance point.
 
Right after I last posted, SIRI was rebounding strongly, thought it might return more than the QQQQ's might, so shortly after market open Dec.15, I sold 1 of my 3 QQQQ puts, @$0.30, at a loss of $11.50, and bought 1 SIRI Jan7.5 call @$0.45. My son had also called me the same day and said, as a mechanic, how he'd noticed many cars coming through fitted with the new satellite radios. The next day, an analyst downgraded SIRI and it opened down $0.30, not recovering much since then. That day the Nasdaq did close significantly lower, but no movement in QQQQ's option price, even with the increased volume being triple witching day. That one is not going to be a money maker for me. Even so, I expect it to go lower yet. So, the acc't is down once again to about $160, also because the OTM Dec. calls I was holding on NT and 1 put on ELY from back in OCT expired worthless. Those were two more rec's from Cramer that turned out bummers. These 2 pos'ns will either make me another chance to play, or break me.

Happy Trades...
 
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