For Directional traders

I'm trying to get some input on what makes you guys decide what direction a stock is going to take - because you don't seem to discuss that process between yourselves, only the option calculations.
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I'm big on charts and patterns but something has really gone south on me and I'm just looking for new directions now to guess price movement. My last successful trade that I had was my GOOG call (THANKS ROB!). Cashed it out for $2400 this morning. This was a pure momentum play. I didn't even really look at the chart. Everyone said its going up and it does.

This somewhat confirms some of what I've been reading in Gary Smith's book. He doesn't use any techinal indicators just market sediment. He's a very sucessful trader who has only had two losing months since 1985. I am seriously considering adjusting my entry/exit. Still reading....

Good luck out there!
 
What a GOOG day! Good for you, QIUNIU, for closing this a.m.! I thought for sure it was going to break $400 today, seeing how bullish it was just after open, so I dumped almost everything I had on 4 Nov.400 calls , only to have to leave for the day and find it tanked right after I shut down! Still holding though - it's got a week before expiry to break through! What made you hold through the down draft and exit so handsomely at today's high? That Gary Smith guy sounds like a real winner. I'll have some more time on my hands next week, God willing - should get around to some of those books you guys have kindly recommended. I'm big on charts and patterns but something has really gone south on me and I'm just looking for new directions now to guess price movement. My last successful trade that I had was my GOOG call (THANKS ROB!). Cashed it out for $2400 this morning. This was a pure momentum play. I didn't even really look at the chart. Everyone said its going up and it does.
 
Quote from Rob on Business:

What a GOOG day! Good for you, QIUNIU, for closing this a.m.! I thought for sure it was going to break $400 today, seeing how bullish it was just after open, so I dumped almost everything I had on 4 Nov.400 calls , only to have to leave for the day and find it tanked right after I shut down! Still holding though - it's got a week before expiry to break through! What made you hold through the down draft and exit so handsomely at today's high? That Gary Smith guy sounds like a real winner. I'll have some more time on my hands next week, God willing - should get around to some of those books you guys have kindly recommended. I'm big on charts and patterns but something has really gone south on me and I'm just looking for new directions now to guess price movement. My last successful trade that I had was my GOOG call (THANKS ROB!). Cashed it out for $2400 this morning. This was a pure momentum play. I didn't even really look at the chart. Everyone said its going up and it does.
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Oops!! Don't know how I did that - probably the same way as Optionpro007's last post to me.
 
Quote from qiuniu:

This somewhat confirms some of what I've been reading in Gary Smith's book. He doesn't use any techinal indicators just market sediment. He's a very sucessful trader who has only had two losing months since 1985. I am seriously considering adjusting my entry/exit. Still reading....
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What's the name of his book again?
 
Quote from qiuniu:

This somewhat confirms some of what I've been reading in Gary Smith's book. He doesn't use any techinal indicators just market sediment. He's a very sucessful trader who has only had two losing months since 1985. I am seriously considering adjusting my entry/exit. Still reading....

Qiuniu,

Measuring sentiment is also an indicator. A contrarian indicator no less. Since, the majority is wrong most of the time, sentiment
indicators work as far as giving you possible reversal points in a downtrending or uptrending stock so, it is an early contrarian
indicator. Price Headley in his book uses the put/call ratio to determine the probable reversal points in a stock.
 
Quote from Rob on Business:

What's the name of his book again?
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How I Trade for a Living by Gary Smith. Not Gary B. Smith who writes for Real Money, who I thought it was when I bought it.

Its really good though, but also $40. It has an invaluable list of days not to buy and days to buy stuff. But before you get it, he is the a really big directional trader so much so he buys mutual funds. This may seem stupid and ultra safe, but here is the reasoning. He looks for mutual funds that are new and haven't closed to new investors yet. He plays mostly sector rotation, so if tech were now in favour he'd look for and up and coming tech mutual and ride it for the sector rotation. He also has a lot on market sediment indicator's with a lot of post-mordem work so when the bear's go below 10% on such and such poll you always buy such and such 'cause its only failed once in 78 years. Book is filled with that type of stuff, valuable but hard to digest. Basically if you can get it used for the $20 range its worth it, but I don't know about $40.

Sorry for the lateness of the reply: my mom had to get most of her colon removed and I dealt with that for the past week. Hope the week treated you well.

Good luck out there!
 
Quote from qiuniu:

How I Trade for a Living by Gary Smith. Not Gary B. Smith who writes for Real Money, who I thought it was when I bought it.

Its really good though, but also $40. It has an invaluable list of days not to buy and days to buy stuff. But before you get it, he is the a really big directional trader so much so he buys mutual funds. This may seem stupid and ultra safe, but here is the reasoning. He looks for mutual funds that are new and haven't closed to new investors yet. He plays mostly sector rotation, so if tech were now in favour he'd look for and up and coming tech mutual and ride it for the sector rotation. He also has a lot on market sediment indicator's with a lot of post-mordem work so when the bear's go below 10% on such and such poll you always buy such and such 'cause its only failed once in 78 years. Book is filled with that type of stuff, valuable but hard to digest. Basically if you can get it used for the $20 range its worth it, but I don't know about $40.

Sorry for the lateness of the reply: my mom had to get most of her colon removed and I dealt with that for the past week. Hope the week treated you well.

Good luck out there!
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Sorry to hear of your mom's misfortune - glad to see you're back! Yes, I was wondering as I was researching him whether the 2 Gary's were the same guy or not! Meanwhile, I made a big mistake. On Friday, expiry, I set a sell limit on my GOOG calls instead of a trailing stop, overconfident that it would trade up for the day. GOOG tanked latter half of the day, before hitting the limit, had to sell low as I'd been out working, only have a few hundred left in the acc't. Oh, well, scrape my way back up the cliff again!
By the way, where do you do your research on option greeks and volatility on a particular pos'n you're interested in?

Happy Trades...
 
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