Quote from eagerbeaver:
Something I haven't seen mentioned in this thread -- buying options is now the contrarian play!!! Think about it -- everybody and his Great Aunt Mabel is learning "can't miss" options "secrets" based on premium selling from TOS, Optionetics, TradingMarkets (gag me), etc. The smart money, they're told, isn't buying options, but selling them. Partly as a result, options are as cheap as they've ever been (or cheaper) because everybody's so busy selling them, mostly to the mm's, thus driving down the premiums (yes, I know, there's more to it than that, but this is a big piece of the puzzle). As a result, these option seminar grads are getting very little return for the risk they're assuming.
Confession: I know, because I was one of them. Buying options was for suckers, this much I knew. Yessir, I was going to leap over the learning curve and join the "smart money" festival of backspreads, straddle-strangle swaps, dazziling double diagonals, and glorious spread-winged short iron condors.
Guess what? I consistently lost money, in part because today's low premiums offer almost zero margin for error (or amateurism, depending on your point of view).
Recently, I decided to stop paying off my broker's vacation home and start thinking for myself. The result? Directional plays, long puts or calls, on stocks. That's all I've been doing for the past six weeks.
Yes, this is a very "unhip" way to make money, as the "smart money" tells us that only ignorant rubes buy options. Oh, well. Call me "unhip." So unhip, I'm pretty sure I'm not fit to post in the company of "elite" traders.
By the way, did I mention that I've logged seven of these dum-dum trades in the past six weeks, and every one of them has been profitable?