Quote from Rob on Business:
And who's gonna know where the analysts' guestimate rates to actual? You obviously have a trick I don't!
I take to heart your recommendation to hope for Ebay's bullish recovery - I still stick by a bullish performance by GOOG as well real soon!
Jim Cramer on Mad Money is strong on CAT, TEX and CHK for the long run - what's his track record like?
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
i look forward to mondays (not like before), but only when i have positions. i'm also a "gambler" at heart. i'm just glad that i'm able to control my impulses much better now. experience and reading a lot of books on investing/trading have helped me with that. i have a spreadsheet that calculates the daily mark-to-market values of my account and i only judge my performance on the weekly basis. in this regard, i have succeeded in making sure not to let my gambling impulses control me. i've missed opportunities, but one of the most important things (maybe the most important) that i learned is that this is a "continuous" game and there will always be opportunities out there. you just have to make sure you're not wiped-out to take advantage of these future opportunities. i can't tell you how many times i've wiped out in the past 5 years, and not be able to take advantage of what i thought were great opportunities. they don't feel good, that's for sure.
i hate holding through earnings! i avoid it if i can help it. i didn't hold my KLAC and VPHM position through earnings, and i was even willing to sell at a loss on VPHM just so i wouldn't hold it. i would only keep the position if i have other reasons, or if that is the only reason for the position (as was the case with QCOM). i felt confident in holding QCOM because i've played them many times in the past.
after earnings is a different story, though. i have 2 posts on another thread explaining why there could be opportunities after earnings. it's the reason for my NFLX play and only time will tell if i'm right on that.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=53371&perpage=6&pagenumber=4
ebay was one i was looking at after their earnings and guidance. i was gonna put a position with Jan 06 Ebay 42.5 calls, but i missed it. i was looking for an opening to put a position if it's around 40/share which happened on July 26. i chickened out and had an excuse that i already had enough position for my account. my target was for the stock to hit 45 within a month or two, but i probably would have closed it last thursday or friday when it went above 44.5 and crossed it again on the down move. the reasoning for the trade was their latest ER and guidance was enough to change the stock sentiment to positive and given where the stock was trading, it could easily trade to $50 given enough time. my target of 45/share was reasonable and would have given a nice risk/reward for a small risk capital. so, i guess you could say that this would have been a 50-50 technical and fundamental trade.
i'm not really a fan of goog. i'm actually waiting for it to break to the downside and willing to buy some long-term puts on it.
i don't really look at any oil plays, but if was going to, i would look at puts. i'm not bullish on oil for the long-term but that can change if i see a signicant news that will change my mind. i try to keep an open-mind so that i can easily buy calls as well as puts on the same underlying depending on what i learn.
cramer? he's fun to watch... i think he's good for the markets and there might be an opportunity to ride on his calls. i heard his makes an impact on the stocks discussed in his show. he could be the next gilder and that could make for some profitable opportunities.
Good luck!
. But other people have posted encouragement as well and I see the views increasing, so...