For Directional traders

Quote from palawan:


there's a lot of luck in this game... it looks like NFLX is getting hit in pre-market and i'm certainly lucky i didn't enter the position yesterday. i haven't looked at the news and this could be a good day to enter a NFLX on lower strikes and Jan.
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nevermind... it looks like it was a misprint?
 
update for the week ending 8/19/2005:

loss of about $2200 (comm included in the figure). basically, the loss came from the high-risk play on options expiration week. no high-risk plays for a while. not until the loss has been recovered if it happens at all.


current positions mark-to-market:

DWA Dec 30 - keeps going to coma... loss is currently at $1190. will keep on holding the position.

AMZN Jan 06 40 puts - insurance position for any "disasters" ahead by $75

VPHM Feb 06 17.5 calls - ahead by $75. mainly a fundamentals position.

CME Aug 280 calls - expired worhtless 15 contracts... loss is around $2100

Good Trading to everyone...
 
Quote from palawan:

nice entries (on both the Feb and the Aug)! congrats.

i
Good Luck.
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pure dumb luck on my part. that's, by the way, my secret -- equal parts dumb and luck, which may explain, in part, why i've never made a dime at this....
 
Quote from palawan:



AMZN Jan 06 40 puts - insurance position for any "disasters" ahead by $75
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I have a suggestion about this particular strategy. If you are concerned about the potential for a big market dip, wouldn't it be a better idea to invest in some cheap puts for something like QQQQs?

The reason I say this is that you are operating under the assumption that a bearish market move would cause AMZN to go down as well, but what happens if AMZN stays static (or possibly goes up) on a bearish day? With QQQQs, you would have a better representation of the overall market since it represents a basket of stocks.
 
Quote from eagerbeaver:

by the way, following RIMM? Any thoughts about today's, ummmm, interesting price action?
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Just checked the chart, no news today, looks like the stock had been leveling out/consolidating around $70 for a couple of weeks, and has now made a strong upwards move on good volume, looks good to me technically, particularly if there is follow-through.
 
I used to play RIMM but it seems to have fallen out of pattern and gone flat. Shortly after it first hit $70 on this trend, I read a couple of analysts saying they downgraded RIMM and didn't see RIMM having any strategy or knowing where they were going. The price seems to have been reflecting that very thing and perhaps the rally may be short covering since I don't see any news justifying it.

From one who hasn't kept any money from this game...
 
Palawan, sorry to hear of your loss. I faired about the same friday, playing high risk/high return Aug. calls on ECA Thurs. and Fri., misreading the trend...again...and being left way shy of strike and with Sept. calls down from days earlier that I'll wait to recover. I had been playing my acc't too close as per my last post to you, and IB unexpectedly sold my wife's USNA stock to bring the margin back up. 'Course, I used the new windfall to fall down again:( . The walls in the well are lookin' ever higher and it's very dark down here!:confused:
 
Quote from Chagi:

I have a suggestion about this particular strategy. If you are concerned about the potential for a big market dip, wouldn't it be a better idea to invest in some cheap puts for something like QQQQs?

The reason I say this is that you are operating under the assumption that a bearish market move would cause AMZN to go down as well, but what happens if AMZN stays static (or possibly goes up) on a bearish day? With QQQQs, you would have a better representation of the overall market since it represents a basket of stocks.
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1st question: yes... if the only reason for the puts was pure "insurance". i'd have probably picked spy puts, though.

the position is based on (my) market view (short-term) and the underlying's fundamentals. if (when) i change my opinion on either one significantly, i'd probably close the position.

2nd question: same reaction i would have on a number of what-if scenarios, i'll have to make a decision when the time comes if the position is still valid. just like when i closed the put-position on KSS...

i like AMZN-puts long term, coz i feel that their fundamentals are weak. the fact that they are "puts" and give an impression that they provide a "hedge" if the market goes down hard and fast is a "bonus" and provide a peace of mind that may or may not materialize.

Good Trading...
 
Quote from Rob on Business:

Palawan, sorry to hear of your loss. I faired about the same friday, playing high risk/high return Aug. calls on ECA Thurs. and Fri., misreading the trend...again...and being left way shy of strike and with Sept. calls down from days earlier that I'll wait to recover. I had been playing my acc't too close as per my last post to you, and IB unexpectedly sold my wife's USNA stock to bring the margin back up. 'Course, I used the new windfall to fall down again:( . The walls in the well are lookin' ever higher and it's very dark down here!:confused:
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Thanks... i just cannot do anymore high-risk/high-return plays for a while...

i've been there... it seems you pick one way and it goes the other way. sometimes you pick several of them, and they all go against you (or most of them). for those times, there's just nothing we can do. maybe if you can step back and take a break and just wait for a really good setup?

that's our advantage not to have to trade everyday, let alone several times a day. maybe if you see a "sure thing" or something as close to it as possible, that's when you can try to put a position. one that shows the charts are practically screaming, the news are confirming the direction, the fundamentals are right, then you can enter some long-term options that will give you enough time to confirm your opinion is correct or not. at least if it trades sideways for a while, you won't be pressured so much...

Good Luck!
 
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