For Another Life

Two trades today. The first one was a spread between IWM/SPY on ideas that financials would outperform today, but no overnight commitment as a rate decision is due on Wednesday. More as a test trade. Made $.29. The other was a short SPY put on a trend continuation idea that failed. Lost $.05. Long treasury notes where down giving me a net result of plus $15.00 on day. Will post today's screenshot later this week when I have my trading computer with me.

Has an idea that will generate more trades in trading range markets. I will test it out this Tuesday during US RTH.

I feel so lost trying to understand the macro environment right now. Geopolitics, Fed policy, US budget debates, seemingly endemic corporate malfeasance, valuation levels in a higher interest rate environment, and our social/demographic situation. Makes it hard to commit to a longer term time frame. The most optimistic thought I have is we are in the third year of a Presidential election cycle which historically has been a good time to be in the market, perhaps due to a more accommodative Fed. I'm beginning to think we are going to need a friendly Fed and then some for a sustained rally. For now, I'll focus mostly on short term trading.
 
Four scalps completed this week. My results were -5 ticks, -4 ticks, +25 ticks, -5 ticks. These trades were mostly long ATM expiring options. I grossed 11 ticks. Totals costs are about 5 ticks, for a net of +6 ticks. My losses were the result of time stops. My win% was 25% and PL Ratio was about 5:1.

My expectations are to average 3 signals per trading session with a win% over 50 and a RR of better than 2:1.

I will divide my account into three portfolios.

The first portfolio, "The Scalper" will be scalping based using long expiring options. I will allocate $20,000 to this portfolio. Initial money management will be set at 1% of allocation.

The second portfolio, "Dow Doggy Style" will be swing based using option spreads on large cap stocks with reversion to mean entry points. There may be some pairs trades as well. Allocation will be $20,000 with stop losses set at 2% of allocation.

The third portfolio, "Manifest Destiny", will be lower priced, less active issues deemed to have good potential for high capital appreciation. Allocation will be remaining balance of account. Exits and entries will be governed by macro and micro outlooks. Will scale positions according to technical considerations.
 
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On Monday, i made six scalps. My win percentage was 83.3% and my reward to risk was 33:1. The 33:1 result was skewed by a tiny loss caused by a intraday trend change. While I was happy to get out with such a small loss, on the subsequent trade I cut my profits short. I correctly call a intraday trend change and end up taking only peanuts? There is a potential livelihood I'm leaving on the table if I keep doing moves like that.

It appears scalping active, long options on day of expiration is fully viable, allowing me to use as high leverage as I desire.

No trades done on Tuesday as I had other obligations.

I'm beginning to get the sense there is an increased willingness to take on risk in spite of a less than accomodative Fed. China opening up is a positive, but China appears to have substantial financially related challenges to work through. Perhaps Western capital markets will be tapped directly or indirectly through transactions like what BABA is proposing. Large cap technology should benefit from increased AI imperatives, although the consumer side may underwhelm.

I'm have a modestly bullish outlook overall and expect this year's high on the SP500 to be taken out before the end of the June quarter, probably well before June, actually.
 
BeautifulStranger said:
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I'm have a modestly bullish outlook overall and expect this year's high on the SP500 to be taken out before the end of the June quarter, probably well before June, actually.
More...

Dude, you are smoking some fine crack there. SP 4200 will not be taken out by June. I should know, I am long at 4200.
 
I am now flat except for some short dated T-notes that I will hold until maturity. I have the sense the geopolitical situation is coming to a head, either positively or negatively.

My scalping went well last week, encouraging me to increase intraday risk for this week in hopes of creating worthwhile returns.

Been comparing single name IV and other volatility products versus VIX. There may be predictive value as certain ratios are reached. It seems likely certain structures will be able to provide solid trading opportunities.
 
Just one trade today. Plus $.10. Was not available to trade in the afternoon. Turned out to another Monday session reversal, especially for NVDA. Once NVDA reversed, there was not a meaningful correction for the rest of the session. My scalping system, as it is currently, does not provide an entry for such situations. How to at least somewhat reliably identify "Runaway" moves and act accordingly? There are risks of loss with open positions, but also opportunity risks where a strong trend day can leave my scalping system empty handed. Perhaps I could use smaller size and instead of trying to scalp there, go for a day trade.
 
Will be posting my trades, mostly scalps, here for the next week.

Been trading better and what to see where I’m at sitting in front of a computer screen for the majority of trading hours of the US session.
 
Looking to get long based on my definition of a uptrend. A major part of that definition is where previous or current day’s high/low is in relation to the bar(s) before it. Based on Friday’s close, I now consider the market in a uptrend and will look to gain exposure on pullbacks. I will look to maintain modest exposure because of a challenging macro environment. The bulk of my performance will be based on intraday trading.

Although geopolitical challenges continue to expand, I will be looking for long exposure in ES by RTH open. My money management protocol will be initiated below 4250. This protocol considers time and distance below the designated price before actual exit is set. Due to the incorporation of option hedging, possible losses are not linear, giving me some flexility towards price discovery.
 
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