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Fooled by Taleb
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
Quote from jem:
yes... my experience at times too. I even watched some rather average athletes make money and some tremendously talented guys with better games fail.
When I cared about tennis I read a book by the tennis coach at pepperdine... I think he name was allen fox.
The coach wrote... that 80 percent of tournament players play worse in competition. some play to their level... and only few consistently rise during competition.
I frequently played worse, was happy when I played my level (maybe 20 percent of the time) and only played above when I was the underdog.... like most) So I felt I was micro proof of his macro statement.
Interesting comment.
When I was a competitive swimmer, I realized that some swimmers get better with stress and some get worse. I think it has a lot to do with ego. I did some of my best times ever when I was physically tired (distance not sprint) because I stopped thinking about me and started thinking about swimming well.
Ok here is how a smart guy in the 80s proposed to test for trader talent.
It seems to be a pretty good use of statistics.. with some interesting conclusions... unfortunately the charts of the data are missing.
http://research.chicagobooth.edu/economy/research/articles/47.pdf
It seems to be a pretty good use of statistics.. with some interesting conclusions... unfortunately the charts of the data are missing.
http://research.chicagobooth.edu/economy/research/articles/47.pdf
I love it when the Times staff of mostly pseudo intellectuals go after other intellectuals for being pompus.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/17/b...assim-nicholas-taleb.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
nevertheless thanks for pointing out the book.
By the way I just looked it up to see if I was unfairly criticizing the author of the times review...
here is what I found..
she is a pulitzer prize winner and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michiko_Kakutani
Salman Rushdie has called her "a weird woman who seems to feel the need to alternately praise and spank".[9] In a June 2005 interview with Rolling Stone magazine, author Norman Mailer criticized Kakutani as a "one-woman kamikaze" who "disdains white male authors" and deliberately "bring out your review two weeks in advance of publication. She trashes it just to hurt sales and embarrass the author." Mailer also said that The New York Times editors were "terrified" of Kakutani, and "can't fire her" because she's "a token", "an Asiatic, a feminist".[10] Jonathan Franzen called her âthe stupidest person in New Yorkâ[11] and an "international embarrassment".[12]
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/17/b...assim-nicholas-taleb.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
nevertheless thanks for pointing out the book.
Quote from EqtTrdr:
Antifragile by Taleb
By the way I just looked it up to see if I was unfairly criticizing the author of the times review...
here is what I found..
she is a pulitzer prize winner and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michiko_Kakutani
Salman Rushdie has called her "a weird woman who seems to feel the need to alternately praise and spank".[9] In a June 2005 interview with Rolling Stone magazine, author Norman Mailer criticized Kakutani as a "one-woman kamikaze" who "disdains white male authors" and deliberately "bring
Quote from StarDust9182:
Interesting comment.
When I was a competitive swimmer, I realized that some swimmers get better with stress and some get worse. I think it has a lot to do with ego. I did some of my best times ever when I was physically tired (distance not sprint) because I stopped thinking about me and started thinking about swimming well.
Which is another way of saying "focus on the process, and the results take care of themselves..."...
Thanks for taking the time to reply to me. I'll follow up with a few comments that may show more about how to go about building one's mind into a steel trap for trading.
If we ever meet somewhere and spend some time when the market is open; you will have a beautiful cahnce to see the market in operation in a very different way than you see others trading now. I mentioned in my first post that you had not had views of other people. It certainly looks that way to me right now.
Quote from jem:
I appreciate your response but my answer will surprise you.
My visceral reaction to putting on bad trades was honed over 7 years of profitable day trading. It protects me and I love it. I embrace my gut. When I hate the trade... I get out. Which really means I hated my undisciplined entry.
(Even if you think a breakout will work... you have to be smart about your entries. )
So when I got pissed at myself for non disciplined entries I got out with minimal loses. Which was great because...
I also nailed a few large swings in a futures markets. So at the end of the day... thursday was nicely profitable and friday was profitable... which is great for a mostly choppy day.
My suggestion to the new trader is to trade stocks doing position trading (PVT}. The one pager that explains PVT trading allows a person to enter late and exit early. So the experience you describe is not in the cards very often. Holding after an entry is a very sensitive and well defined process. The independent variable takes you in and takes you out. You saw a person do his first 62 trades using 27K. In those three months he had two losses and his average ROI was 150K per annum. By the fourth month it had crept up to 250K ROI per year.
So now I will teach you something.
The effort you make below has a few assumptions. I do not do what you assume I do. And I agree with what you say. If a person looks at what I do through your eyes, my trading to make the money I do would not be possible.
So we rarely chat. This is a good opportunity for me to share with you a little. Keep my screen shots of my trading desk in mind. also keep in mine the order in which I peruse the elements of the display.
When you are pretending you are always in and trading the corners.... you are lying. You can't observe the es and get trades on the corners... the premium only gets extended for a few moments... if you are not in the cue... you are not executed at the extended prices.
I'm never in any cue. I thought everyone knew that. I carve turns at their extreme by NOT ever being in the cue.
But the time you observe the opportunity for those prices is gone.
I always use 10 to 12 leading indicators of price. All of them have been explained as you indicate at the bottom of your post to me. Actually you can see most of what I do in a nutshell by printing the nine tables in the "Sweeps chart". the last part of it shows how the OTR chart pairs work.
In the 20 days learning to be an expert, I posts all my lookup tables that can be used in an ATS built using SQL or equivalent. A mong other things there ae the 8 panels of the Modrian table. Each panel has two columns. the left one is the n -1 turn and the right column is the reversal on the n turn. The entries in these columns are ALL End Effects of trends. furthermore, the top four panels are failsafe panels which use "indicators" to assure NOT missing a subfractal move.
Pairs of panels exist for each of the four types of trends. Each trend type is ID'ed byat least the turn BEFORE the reversal turn.
All of this adds up to replacing CW's "prediction" habit.
Always in and get good prices at the corner for reversals is impossible when trading off 5 minute charts like the es.
This is your view. It would certainly be a good idea for us to meet on neutral turf like Genesis in Colorado springs.
there you can see all the back up I created on the trade Navigator system. they have periodic meetings. Perhaps you might want to attend one and hear from all kinds of traders about how systems work.
I invented a term called a WALL. It is a place that price cannot exceed. It is there and it is an extreme of a tend segment. When you "tape read" the DOM and the OTR P/V chat it is like time standing still. I believe you would enjoy seeing how in modern times the "tape is read".
PC's have been around for the minority of time in my trading career. several top notch traders trade out of Vegas. If you like that venue let me know. we ccan be guests of these hotshots and I know they will wlecome showing you the nuances of their ATS's.
Those pages and pages of posts you make after the market closes... are trading comedy. you approach the trendline... look at vvolume determine continuation or reversal and if reveral execute.
FYI I watch leading indicators of price. the approach of price to its limits is a lagging indicator of price. The turn before the approach is what I have logged and classified.
Meanwhile premium has already snapped back and prices are 3 to 4 ticks away in the cue.
That is correct. And before the event of your comment there was a leading indicator signal.
Put up a five minute candle chart of the es for just about any trading day in the U.S.
It does not really matter what time you start the day.
look at all the consolidation periods.
It is generally known from my prints that I am in the market on the correct side of the market within 30 seconds of open. I know most ET folks cannot read my prints. Pekelo proved that to most ET readers of his comments. Usually, as shown on my prints I take a first profit segment in the four digit or low five digit range.
See those wicks...lots of them... lots on each side of the open and close box. If you are making trades after the observation... you get filled in the box not on the wick.
Refer to the TN softwear that triggers on wicks as you say and perhaps do. I trader before this context copmes up in your observations. I do not trade as a consequence of being in a cue of any sort ever. People who carve turns do NOT use the box; they are using the exteremes of wicks.
So if you subtract 2 to 3 ticks from each one of your orders... you papertrading always in methodology turns into big loses.
color=red]I checked that out on my P&L sheets; I get a different result than you do for my trading[/color]
So don't go claiming someone who actually makes money trading has a lizard brain when you post many pages of bullshit about a your post facto daytrading method.
I was commenting on your posts content. Above you can read the offset of your views on my activities compared to what I actually do. So what I read from you seems to have an eternal offset. the stress syndrome and the Lizard Syndrome are commonly used to explain these consistent delayed reaction to market's prior signals. fear anxiety and anger are the source emotions of most of which you describe in your posts.
Which destroys your disciples accounts.
I do review account growth as a consequence of purposeful learning. At the top I commented on a posted record of a beginner in stock trading where he did his first posts. Unfortunately, he gave up his battle with ALS just before noon on Friday. I sat alone today in the trading room he operated for about 8 of his friends. All of us make make money and we come from all walks of life. As I sat there his dog Buddy who lives in the office, got up for a moment as nuzzled my hand. Then he returned to his doggy mattress and closed his eyes again.
you should be ashamed of yourself.
If we ever meet somewhere and spend some time when the market is open; you will have a beautiful cahnce to see the market in operation in a very different way than you see others trading now. I mentioned in my first post that you had not had views of other people. It certainly looks that way to me right now.
Quote from jem:
Ok here is how a smart guy in the 80s proposed to test for trader talent.
It seems to be a pretty good use of statistics.. with some interesting conclusions... unfortunately the charts of the data are missing.
http://research.chicagobooth.edu/economy/research/articles/47.pdf
So a guy writes about two market operating items that are insignificant items.
Then he gets editors to put it on the publication schedule.
This is how the myths you believe get created.
There are footnotes there as well. The myth torch will never be extinguished.
Do you trhink Ruggerio will ever figure out prediction is not possible or even needed? The answer is No.
Quote from jem:
Well lets start with a simple question.
Andy Murray winning a Wimbledon final.
Luck or Skill. I hope everyone here is logical enough to understand that was skill regardless of if he won a few lucky points.
You can't be Djokovic with luck.
if we all agree... lets move on to the next one.
-----
At some point... might we not all concede... after say 10,000 trades... some equity curve could not be created with luck? I might not be requesting metphysical certitude... but would't some number like 80 percent winners and 3 to 1 risk reward be impossible with luck?
Wrong it was luck that Nadal and Feder didn't make it to the finals. Andy may not have won had they. So it was both luck and skill.
What the hell is this? Is there any way to stop this jack hershey idiocy? Spouting random gibberish is one thing, but this is really too much... What possible qualifications does this clown possess to comment on basic statistical techniques?Quote from jack hershey:
So a guy writes about two market operating items that are insignificant items.
Then he gets editors to put it on the publication schedule.
This is how the myths you believe get created.
There are footnotes there as well. The myth torch will never be extinguished.
Do you trhink Ruggerio will ever figure out prediction is not possible or even needed? The answer is No.
Quote from Martinghoul:
What the hell is this? Is there any way to stop this jack hershey idiocy? Spouting random gibberish is one thing, but this is really too much... What possible qualifications does this clown possess to comment on basic statistical techniques?
As a clown, I feel (using my stat training here) that comparing luck in trading with predicting in trading is not a good use of staff time.
With regard to publishing such a comparison, I would never quibble about the statistical techniques that were published. Getting published is running a gautlet of some sort. The gautlet he ran successfully is not one I would expect you could succeed at.
If you rhink NTIS is significant, just check the list. My six consecutive listings, at one time, did cause rumbles among the custodians along the academic halls where I once trod.
My best stat foray was in what you drink daily. I am known for the four interference tables our team created (I was the wayward leader). APHA water testing, before this expose, was regarded as staid and true. Attention to significant detail changed all of that complacency.
The rumors that arose indicated that some people could have died because of insufficient testing controls. Consider yourself lucky because of me. It is safe to predict that you will die from other causes. Do a paper on your good luck and my prediction for your statified random sample of water drinkers.
I would guess that you do not understand my stuff. So that is to my statistical advantage. By the way, my gibberish is non random.