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Fooled by Randomness
- Thread starter johnny88
- Start date
Quote from nelsanity:
Besides equities, I am trying Futures as well. Currently using only 1 TY contract. What is the maximum leverage you take? Although with Futures I am not planning on day trading. My aim is to roll and hold for 2-5 years.
You had better factor in cost-of-carry. Just a suggestion.
Yes, the infamous PRDC (power reverse dual currency) notes linked to the level of USDJPY. There were some other factors, such as the pension fund woes, but PRDCs were by far the biggest culprit.Quote from nelsanity:
Swan Noir,
I got an article on it (neg 30 Y swap spreads) back in November, as I seem to recall it was due to hedging inversion notes. I'll see if I can dig it up at work, If you are interested I can scan and post (don't even know if that's possible on this forum).
What do you guys do for a living anyway? Do you live off your trading account or is that more of hobby?
Very interesting stuff, Mr Swan... It's a curious background you got yourself there.
I happen to agree with your two scenarios for the future, but that's a discussion for another day.
As I am off on vacation today and I don't know whether this thread will be alive when I get back, I wish everyone a good 2 weeks and hope to talk to y'all when I'm back.
I happen to agree with your two scenarios for the future, but that's a discussion for another day.
As I am off on vacation today and I don't know whether this thread will be alive when I get back, I wish everyone a good 2 weeks and hope to talk to y'all when I'm back.
Quote from Martinghoul:
Very interesting stuff, Mr Swan... It's a curious background you got yourself there.
I happen to agree with your two scenarios for the future, but that's a discussion for another day.
As I am off on vacation today and I don't know whether this thread will be alive when I get back, I wish everyone a good 2 weeks and hope to talk to y'all when I'm back.
Serendipity has played a larger part in my life than it has for most people -- for both good and bad. It has opened up certain opportunities and in turn it was the pursuit of those opportunities (which seemed, in each case, quite natural) that totaled up to what one could rightly label "curious". It has more often been labeled "interesting" but personally I think the the best single word description is "odd".
Yet a rose by any other name ... lol.
Enjoy your vacation. Whether this thread lasts -- and it may -- or not, I am sure I will see you in a thread.
Quote from Martinghoul:
Yes, the infamous PRDC (power reverse dual currency) notes linked to the level of USDJPY. There were some other factors, such as the pension fund woes, but PRDCs were by far the biggest culprit.
Found an article on it (not the one I was looking for but does the job), there is also a news item from reuters that's decent.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/fears-mount-in-japan-over-complex-yen.html
Yeah the other factors were massive Treasury issuance, and investors who wanted to add duration to portfolios after Lehman's demise. Everyone was hoarding capital so buying UST wasn't an option for many so they went to the swap market.
Quote from nelsanity:
I
I was short TYU9 for a couple months, recently rolled into Z.
It can be risky to be long or short out months with a small open interest and low volume. If you don't mind keeping substantial margin in the account and are not using stops that can gunned for then it probably doesn't matter.
But for most traders having a position in anything but the spot month makes little sense.
Quote from Swan Noir:
It can be risky to be long or short out months with a small open interest and low volume. If you don't mind keeping substantial margin in the account and are not using stops that can gunned for then it probably doesn't matter.
But for most traders having a position in anything but the spot month makes little sense.
Yeah I only trade front contract, as the market rolls I roll as well. I was Short TYU9 last week, I closed it out this week and rolled to TYZ9. Again, sometime Late November I will roll to March. I don't like using stops, as I watch this all day long for my day job anyway.
Quote from nelsanity:
Yeah I only trade front contract, as the market rolls I roll as well. I was Short TYU9 last week, I closed it out this week and rolled to TYZ9. Again, sometime Late November I will roll to March. I don't like using stops, as I watch this all day long for my day job anyway.
Wasn't paying attention -- it is that time again.
I don't hold overnight and its always a jolt to me when I realize another quarter has passed.
I am always suspicious when I don't make the tried and true play or protect myself in the tried and true fashion if my reason is : "I don't like ...... (fill in the blank)".
Using stops clearly entails risk but a catastrophic stop, given the vagaries of communication, is a comfort to me. I give it enough room that it really has nothing to do with my trade management except in a move that is truly staggering in it's size.
But ... to each his own!