From what I've seen, pretty much every commodity (with the exception of natural gas) has gone up over the past year... some of them substantially. What I'm curious about is what part of that across-the-board price increase is due to the increase in oil prices (higher transportation costs, etc) as opposed to, for example, the decline in the value of the US dollar vs. other currencies. If most/all the commodities are priced in USD, and the dollar is no longer worth as much, then wouldn't it make sense that it takes more dollars to buy the same bushel of wheat?
In other words, I think I'm seeing two basic theories:
1. Where oil's price goes, the other commodities go, too. The fabled "speculators" are driving oil up, and, because oil is required for transportation of commodities, etc, all commodities naturally rise in price, as well.
...OR...
2. Oil doesn't lead commodity prices, it just roughly parallels them. Commodities have risen in price due to the decline in the value of the dollar. Speculation, while certainly part of commodity trading, doesn't explain why almost all commodities are up vs. this time last year.
No doubt there are more persuasive/plausible explanations or ideas. I'd be interested to know if anyone has some good stats (or where to go to get good stats) on this stuff. For example, is it possible to know who the "hedgers" are vs. the "speculators"? And how does a trader become either of the two? Can the numbers of each group be tracked to see if the hedgers/speculators ratio is rising/falling, etc?