Fomc

The most interesting part to me was the fact that for the first time in this cycle of rate hikes the vote was not unanimous with one dissenting vote.

IMO the indications that the FED rate hikes are coming to an end soon are clear and it has at most three more raises.

nitro
 
Today the FED language is more problematical for the first time in months. IMO the FED will have data that shows that markets (in particular RE markets and consumer related markets like auto sales) are beginning to feel the pinch of the rate hikes.

While at least a quarter today is 99.999% certain, I would not be surprised to hear that the FED has changed it's language about further rate hikes. IMO, the FED will hint that they are closer to reaching a neutral stance going forward, at least to the second half of next year.

Again, spooz will trickle higher into the announcement, and depending on the language, will either go ballistic or get creamed.

nitro
 
I think it will be a shorter statement with the hurricane blurb removed but would be surprised to see any change in the significant, "accomodative" and "measured pace" wording.

25bp hike

3 out of 88 economists surveyed on bloomberg are going for unchanged everyone else 25 hike
 
prices paid highest since may 2004 in ISM, employment much stronger and chicago pmi yesterday all say the heat is building
 
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