FOMC journal

P

promagma

This is a simple journal - I make a call, one day ahead of time, if FOMC day will close higher or lower.

Everyone feel free to post your own predictions.

My method was developed with a couple of years of data. It has been accurate, but will need some more forward-testing before I trade with size. Just for fun, I trade 1 YM contract, entering long/short at the close, 200 point stop loss. If not profitable after FOMC day, I will hold for one more day (always subject to the stop).

First call is coming up ....
 
A fixed stop loss is tough with all the volatility ..... probably better to do a stop and reenter.

So if I am long from X, stop loss will be at (X-80) and reenter at (X-30)
If I am short from X, stop loss will be at (X+80) and reenter at (X+30)
 
Trade was looking good in the morning, but stopped for -80 points, re-entered short and stopped for -50.

Trade is still good for tommorow, I have a sell stop on the YM at 10982. Things could get ugly tommorow. Hoping it doesn't gap way down and I get a bad fill.
 
The short triggered in premarket, and with all the news flying around, was stopped out for a 50 point loss. The short triggered again, and I rode it all day for a 373 point profit. Overall the direction was right, but with the volatility it was tough to stay with the trade. Another stop-out and I would have given up. I want to keep the risk within about 200 points.

Net gain on the trade was 193 points.

Here is a chart. Middle day is FOMC day.

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