Yes I am trading the event and am betting that FOMC will stay on course to raise 25 bp as what everyone is expecting but with a probability albeit small that it might stay put and not raise the rate just this once given the soft CPI data recently and the situation in the banking industry. But I agree most likely that the Fed will raise the interest rate for another 25 bps in which case, it would be a non-event because it's widely expected. The market will only move if Powell stays put or raises the rate by 50 bps, either of which have a small probability of happening.
FOMC actions
- Thread starter TrAndy2022
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Yes I am trading the event and am betting that FOMC will stay on course to raise 25 bp as what everyone is expecting but with a probability albeit small that it might stay put and not raise the rate just this once given the soft CPI data recently and the situation in the banking industry. But I agree most likely that the Fed will raise the interest rate for another 25 bps in which case, it would be a non-event because it's widely expected. The market will only move if Powell stays put or raises the rate by 50 bps, either of which have a small probability of happening.
It's ok that you don't want to share your position(s) or whether you are trading but you do need to acknowledge that we are traders and not talkers or analysts. We being traders means that we eventually put our money where our mouth is.
Are you trading this event, vincent?
you betcha. what you are trading? options, odte, futes or what?
I am trading the SPY. I think the market might go up a bit even if Fed does raise the rate by 25 bps which is what's widely expected and with a small prob. that Fed might stay put in which case the market is going to really take off.
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so you are buying actual shares of the spy?
yes a small position.
you ever thought about buying 3x leverage like spxl? triple your money or triple your loss...lol.
I used to buy it but ever since I read posts here exposing the fact that it doesn't actually result in 3X the return of SPX in the long run but only on a daytrade basis, I have been reluctant. I at first was skeptical of this finding but then I observed the PA more and did some calculations and discovered that that is indeed the case. And I realized why. It's because it doesn't replicate 3X of just the returns of the SPX; it replicates 3X of ALL movements of the SPX even its down movement as well. So if SPX goes up, it will go up by 3X but if SPX goes down, it will go down 3X as well on a daily basis so any extra returns that you might have earned from the 3X replication don't really get carried over from one day to another. Every day you sort of start all over. So all you end up doing is just daytrading SPX with magnified movement and you need to close the positions at the end of day because everything you have earned might be all erased the next day. And that's not what I want to do. I want my profit to accumulate a bit so I reverted back to SPY. Plus it's much easier to hedge for SPY. SPXL's options have much wider bid/ask spread, lot less liquid, much wider strike prices and with only weekly expirations vs SPY having daily expirations.