Followup to French boycott stuff with Fairplay and msfe

Quote from jem:

My major point still being hey what percent of the French economy is dependent on American tourists and what percent on exports to Americans (in consideration for Mexicans and others please change Americans to U.S.) And is it true or false that business leaders in France are very concerned. Look either the news here is completely full of shit or France is hanging by it finger nails and this U.S. thing has really backfired on them.
I will now drop this until we have stats and some GDP numbers because it really is not that important
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touristique dans le monde
dans l’économie nationale puisqu’elle a représenté, en 2002, 6,6% du PIB "

http://www.lesechos.fr/publications/conferences/conference/20030520-tourisme/
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SO, the tourism, as of 2002 is 6.6% of the GDP. (6.9% a couple years ago).


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http://fr.srd.yahoo.com/S=9159818:WS1/R=13/K=tourisme+etrangers+d%e9penses/*-http://francesegiuridico.jus.unibs.it/Tourisme/Tourisme%20Statistiques.doc

176,6MdFrancs foreign spending,612.5MdFrancs
internal spending.
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SO, the share of foreign spending in the tousrism industry is :
176.6/(612.5+176.6) = 22%

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(ie dont Union européenne 87,1, Suisse 35,1, USA et Canada 28,4,
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So, Americans+Canadians are 28.4/176.6= 16% of the foreign spending
Let's suppose the Americans spend twice as much as the Canadians (hypothetical, just to get a worst case scenario).
they would have spent 11% of the total foreign money.



CONCLUSION :

the US tourist is in the worse case responsible
for **11%** of foreign spending in tourism.

the US tourist is in the worse case responsible
for 11% of 22%=***2.42%*** of the domestic+foreign spending in tourism.

(we note that even in an industry wide perspective, US tourism is irrelevant)

the US tourist is in the worse case responsible
for (11% of 22% of 6.6%= ****0.15%****) of the GDP.

0.15% ??? can we consider that the French economy is largely reliant on the American tourism as you said ??
Jem, please, be serious, 0.15% (and I adjusted everything for a worst case perspectvie) is it a 'really large reliance' of the French economy on the US tourists ?

Obviously NO.

Also, people like me who would have spent the summer in the US
will in most cases stay in France. So, spending what I would have spend in the US, plus the flights tickets will certainly compensate for the american tourist that did not come.
(and who will use the VIP rooms in Vegas :confused: )
Couple this with the fact that some Americans dont care about politics, that others come to see their childrens, and that others were against the Irak war, and will not see any problem in coming in France.
Hence, the lost share of these (worst case 0.15%) might very well be compensated by the domestic spending.

So, no loss expected.

OHLC
 
Quote from jem:


And is it true or false that business leaders in France are very concerned.
Look either the news here is completely full of shit or France is hanging by it finger nails and this U.S. thing has really backfired on them.
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Exports
US 8.7% (2001)
Imports:
US 8.9% (2001)

Not negligible, but as explained, our companies continued gaining market share, even in the worst time (Iraq war) and most sensible fields (military).
This Iraq war also had a good side for the economy, since many countries are now reluctant to deal with the US.
Airbus (based in France) is now the largest maker of commercial planes, larger than Boeing.

So, overall, France doesnt have anything to fear about any American boycott.

Regarding business leaders, I dont know much of them, but I know two from the Defense industry and Hotels Industry, they dont worry at all.


==Look either the news here is completely full of shit ==

It is quite possible that the US news about France are BS.
This is all I can say about the coverage in Various medias since the Iraq war.

As a matter of fact, I did not hear about anything regarding US tourism lately. (and tourism is a popular topic on news these days)
I scanned agency news on these key words and cant find anything.
Looking quickly in the Radios/TVs archives in I cant find anything either (but it was a quick search).

So, sorry Jem, but it if you heard anywhere about such things, it is utter complete BS.
If you heard the French economy depends on the US tourist, it is an outright lie, a manipulation. (0.15% max of GDP lol)

The funny thing is this poll where 51% of the polled Americans said they believe Saddam used WMD on US troops lol
The news for the rest of the world are that no WMD have been yet found.
Might be a problem with the US news (or maybe the news of all other countries are into a conspiracy alltogether ?).


Jem, what you head is pure BS, I am sorry you fell for it (really sorry not kidding, this is sad things are coming to this point).
My replies are a bit rude, but imagine this headline :
'The US economy is largely dependent on French tourists (which outpspend other tourists 8 to1), it might fall into recession quickly'.
Would you fall for this BS ?
Probably no.


OHLC
 
The us population is 281 million, Canada 28 million, Best guess should be 10 -1 not 2-1. consequently US is much larger share of tourism. So U.S. is close to 15 % of foreign spending on tourism. That is a truly serious amount. (According to my reading of the above numbers). When looking back at hapaboys post I knew I was way off stating 20% or more. I figured 5-8 percent.

But can you believe how right I was. Our small little piss pot nation counts for 15% of the foreign spending on tourism in France. This would seem to me to be a much higher number than you people thought. And to think Americans have to cross a big ocean to get there.

And 8.7 of the exports. another big slice of the economy. The above numbers may not be a big deal to you but economists go nuts over 1/2 percent changes.

That ass kissing will probably come sooner than I expected. (again this is now for fun and I really do not care so please do not get all pissed off.)

Now in terms of impact on an economy it is the luxury spender that you really want. What good is if you can exchage 98 cents of goods and services for 1dollar. When you could echange those same goods and services for 5dollars in a luxury hotel to a person on a tour.

The importance of the American dollar to the French economy was clearly undervalued prior to the start of this educational thread.

 
Quote from jem:

The us population is 281 million, Canada 28 million, Best guess should be 10 -1 not 2-1. consequently US is much larger share of tourism. So U.S. is close to 15 % of foreign spending on tourism. That is a truly serious amount. (According to my reading of the above numbers). When looking back at hapaboys post I knew I was way off stating 20% or more. I figured 5-8 percent.

But can you believe how right I was. Our small little piss pot nation counts for 15% of the foreign spending on tourism in France. This would seem to me to be a much higher number than you people thought. And to think Americans have to cross a big ocean to get there.

And 8.7 of the exports. another big slice of the economy. The above numbers may not be a big deal to you but economists go nuts over 1/2 percent changes.

That ass kissing will probably come sooner than I expected. (again this is now for fun and I really do not care so please do not get all pissed off.)

Now in terms of impact on an economy it is the luxury spender that you really want. What good is if you can exchage 98 cents of goods and services for 1dollar. When you could echange those same goods and services for 5dollars in a luxury hotel to a person on a tour.

The importance of the American dollar to the French economy was clearly undervalued prior to the start of this educational thread.

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Even supposing the Americans spent all and the Canadians never ever spent an Euro in France, its is only 0.22% of GDP.
0.22% !!! Ridiculous, Negligible.
Same thing for exports, it is less than 10%, works both ways, and as I told you companies continue gaining market share, even in the US.

You did not even back from your statement of 'the French economy is largely dependent on the US tourist', while proven at less than a quarter of a percent.

Please JEM, DO NOT EVER ATTEMPT TO TRADE !
You are one of these guys that never admit they are completely wrong... Sadly, you will get away with this (although you get ridiculed) on a message board, but never on the markets.


OHLC
 
I just went though my posts and I do not see where you are getting the quote "largely reliant..." that you quoted above. The thougt I was conveying is that at the margin those U.S. dollars are and will be seen (by you and the French) as very important for keeping France out of recession. What you are supposed to connect up is the following. The French tourism people are very concerned that many americans have chosen reduce their travel to france this summer. It is fair to say that I predicted that this will hurt the French economy and that between this an the exporters the French will realize they should make amends with the U.S. consumer. All you have to do is look at the numbers you posted. They are significant. You say they do not matter I think you underestimate their impact.

15% of foreign dollars spent- ( a large percent of the high end where the real profits are) is very impressive. But leave it to a francophile to poo poo. You silly little americans we do not need your money. We shall see.


Now I will not get into a how long you have been trading battle because you revealed your insecurity and I have no intention to get sucked into a truly stupid arguement about implicitly who is the better person. Because clearly my dad is better than your dad.
 
Quote from jem:

and its very large reliance on the american tourist, the French business people are quite worried.
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Quote from jem:

I just went though my posts and I do not see where you are getting the quote "largely reliant..." that you quoted above
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Still dont see ??

OHLC




 
Quote from jem:

The French tourism people are very concerned that many americans have chosen reduce their travel to france this summer
**Lies and damn lies again.**

Now I will not get into a how long you have been trading battle because you revealed your insecurity and I have no intention to get sucked into a truly stupid arguement about implicitly who is the better person. Because clearly my dad is better than your dad.
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Not my intention either to battle about our trading performances, actually, I was fair enough to give you the advice to stay away from trading.
I actually revealed that you are the first people either on ET to get me real pissed off. You are the master of intellectual dishonesty.

But, anyway, you choose to flee, to avoid conflict, to be a coward, as the man of little honor you are. You are a pathetic LOSER in every sense of the word.
I am glad you are exposing yourself as such for everyone to see.


OHLC
 
My last post. I can see how you were confused, especially if english is not your first language but "largely reliant" and very large reliance can equate to very different percentages. For instance I see largely reliant as well north of 50 percent maybe 70 or 80 percent. Where very large reliance can be a much more relative number, especially economically speaking.

Still, I do not see why you got so worked up. My main thesis is It looks like the french will need to kiss a little ass. We then made some stats. I admittedly overestimated but still am surprised to find the US. was near 15% of foreign spending on tourism. I find that significant you do not big deal.

I actually feel bad I pissed you off so much on a summer weekend. I apologize.

By the way I have not lied we were just using language to make a case. I felt very unemotional but perhaps you should watch out for lawyers cause I use to be one. I felt that you were rhetorically set up by me (just a little) and I did not even use 90% of a lawyers tactics. Imagine if you were on the stand. Please do not be too upset. I really did not mean to piss you off. And I actually like the French outside of pairs, I have,had friends in the mountains and the beaches and they had been kind and generous. It is the parisians servicing tourists for whom I have a true lack of respect.
 
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