Following or Predicting

[whitster]

"If my main purpose was to avoid being labelled a technical trader, I could just claim I use FA, since you've claimed everything else to be TA. "

false.

i did not claim (all NOT TA = FA)

i said , USUALLY

read again.

there are some forms of analysis, that are neither TA nor FA.

if you make trade decisions based on a dice roll, that would be neither TA or FA for example

please don't mischaracterize what i said. i said USUALLY

the vast amount of trading decisions come from TA or FA. not all

 

[illiquid]

Relax, you can define whatever you like. I'll even let you pigeonhole me wherever you feel comfortable, and allow you to believe whatever you want about my motives for just posting how *I* felt what TA means for me -- satisfied? Good grief

 

[whitster]

im not defining them. those are the 'dictionary definitions"

what i have found is that people who often don't want to be associated with a terminology, or school of thought, will want to redefine a word, so as to place themselves outside that school -

this is true in politics, and it is certainly true in trading

Ta is the perfect example of a taboo word, such that many traders who use any aspect of a TA approach don't want to be associated with a bunch of "third wave of the chewbacca formation" TA witch-doctors, and will thus try to define away the very meaning of the term.

for example, i use (among other modalities) some market profile to see how market is developing, how value is being developed, etc. many market profile doods are the farthest thing possible from some ninny trading on the latest gee whiz macd/rsi/stoch indicator du jour

but both are using TA.

 

[illiquid]

I didn't think it would mean that much to a trader what category he would be in -- I suspect just about everything has been done before in some way or another, so no point in trying to be "special" here. But anyways, the definition I gave for TA seems to hold true, at least as true as any general "dictionary" definition of what TA is. That aside, I will freely admit that I use elements of both TA and FA under textbook definitions -- it's all voodoo anyways, ain't it?

 

[kut2k2]

Quote from marketsurfer:

may i suggest the following book for those with any interest in the proper use of TA:

http://www.amazon.com/Evidence-Base..._bbs_sr_1/102-3850048-5551348?ie=UTF8&s=books


enjoy,


surf

Do you know the author? Any advance insights into the book? Thanks.

 

[whitster]

look, i use what works.

when i intraday trade futures, which is how i make my living, it is 100% TA. because fundamentals don't mean ANYTHING on an intraday time frame trading the dow minis.

otoh, some investments (and even some trades) i will use almost 100% FA.

my best return ever on an investment was one where i bought almost entirely FA. i ignored the chart machinations and depended on the solid fundamentals, in a lynchian sense - that was HANS.

another stock i bot solely on FA aspects was UARM. bot the IPO. can;t use TA when u buy the IPO.

what i was saying is that people associate TA with "indicator du jour". i trade purely TA for dow futures, but i don't have ANY conventional indicators. i look at price, market internals, etc. but that IS TA.

no trendlines, though. no MACD, no RSI, none of that stuff

 

[WolfVector]

MustPlayOptions:


Registered: Jun 2006
Posts: 27


1) What kind of capital are you using to get these returns?

>$500K

2) How many positions at a time would be open?

One position for each stock (two dozen) in the portfolio. For training and out of sample testing a constant dollar value was used for each trade.

3) Are you long and short or just long or just short?

Each stock: either long or short, but the portfolio can have long and short positions in different stocks.

4) When you are saying out of sample - are you referring to the time frame or to stocks that were not used in training (I was thinking of doing the latter)?

The out of sample test used the same stocks as those used in training. Only the timeframe changed. The stocks used were liquid stocks picked at random (with a few exceptions used as standards - e.g., QQQQ). In general they were from different industry groups, although some were highly correlated with each other, most were not. I’ve randomly tested a few stocks not used in the training set with good results, but haven’t done a formal analysis yet. (I'm concentrating on an intraday system now).

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from OddTrader:

?

Sorry Odd, do I need to simplify the question??

"It's Timing that matters - Only the correct ones for both entry and exit will make profits."

Ones what? Trades? If it is trades then are you saying that traders purposely execute incorrect ones?

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from illiquid:

I would define TA as any methodology whose profitability depends almost entirely upon "static repetition".

And do you think a static repetitive environment can be created using a price chart?

 

[MustPlayOptions]

WolfVector - thank you for the reply.

It's giving me hope that I'm not wasting my time with NN's. I know you're way ahead of me in the process but if your interested in discussing things further please feel free to PM me and I'll let you kow what I'm thinking about trying since I've taken us a little off topic.