Following or Predicting

The big institutions hire droves of technical analysts in the hopes that managed funds will beat the returns of the "lowly" index funds. They (the managed funds) only rarely accomplish that goal. So ah, how come is that? Could it be that technical analysis has NO predictive value whatsoever?
 
"I have seen people come up with some crazy ideas and call them TA. LIke saying everytime there are 4 neg bars the 5th should be positive and crazy stuff like that which I dont even think you can call TA."

any study of price qua price (and price repeated = volume) is TA.

it may be dumb ta, or good ta, or whatever, but if you are studying price, price movements, etc. you are using TA.
 
Quote from OddTrader:

Following or Predicting?

Neither! :D

It's Timing that matters - Only the correct ones for both entry and exit will make profits.
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Timing of what?
 
Predicting will lead to nothing but pain for most. If you think you can predict the markets, how come your net worth isn't $50B w/ 100% winning trades?

You'll be far more profitable, and a lot less stressed, when you realize you can't predict chaos and the best plan of attack is simply to build a system that's to your risk tolerances, that you can trade, that can act and re-act to market conditions.

Learning that is, imho, the thing that made the most impact in my career

Quote from WolfVector:

Following or Prediction?

Prediction.

I’ve developed a neural network that tries to predict moves. It’s uses proprietary indicators as inputs. The system was trained on about 2 dozen stocks, optimizing only 4 parameters (the same parameters value are used for all stocks).

Here’s a 1-year out of sample equity curves for individual stocks.
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<~ not impressed. I've worked with and built NNs before. 9/10 times they're outperformed by the simpler methodologies and the time spent in development and training really just doesn't pay out.

That being said, i've seen them applied in a variety of fields, and most of the time it'st he same thing - companies spends a shit load of $$$ to try and get it work, 2yrs later they end up abandoning it.

Come tot hink of it, I don't think I've ever really seen a super-sucesseful* application of NNs *shrug*

*for clarification, by super-sucessful I simply mean that it blows the standard methodology out of the water.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

perfect track records make better skits.

actually, it would fit perfectly in a chapter on delusional trading beliefs and their sources:

http://web.archive.org/web/20030827124453/www.logicalmarkettrends.com/ERGprogram.htm


surf:D
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Three years after that page was created and I'm still doing the research. What have you ever done, other than aggravate the masses, that has lasted that long?

By the way if you think 92% is perfect then it explains a lot of the misinformation you put out.
 
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