Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C - 28%, LS – 21%, SS - 41% /
FTG Score / D 48.2, W -34.3, M -9.2 /
This bearish change signal coming from the cot report suggests lower prices coming. Could be the case, although high daily FTG score (positive) makes me cautious.


Oats
COT Extreme / C - 76, LS – 307 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 21.0, W 31.5, M 42.0 /
Beautiful bearish cot extreme near the top -> let us be prepared for much cheaper oats.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C - 14, LS – 182 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -13.3, W -23.3, M -24.5 /
Significant bullish cot extreme in the market, but in my opinion it could grow larger. In anyways, it seems that there may be a good buying opportunity soon.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
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Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Gold
COT Change (52W) / C - 32%, LS – 36%, SS - 28% /
FTG Score / D 17.8, W 43.3, M 46.1 /
Both cot signal, the change and the extreme suggest that fallback in prices could happen. FTG scores are positive showing strength, but mainly on the weekly & monthly horizon: I can imagine some decline in the near term, but eventually see prices head north again.

Oats
COT Extreme / C, LS – 308 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 32.6, W 52.3, M 57.1 /
It seems as if the bearish cot extreme signal I’ve been talking about the last time has taken oats down and judging by the size of this extreme I’d be expecting further declines coming.

Brazilian Real
COT Extreme / C, LS – 225 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -20.8, W -34.6, M -25.9 /
The cot report is indicating a bullish extreme in Traders positions, but FTG scores indicate weakness in the market it may be advisable to wait for a better opportunity.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Swiss Franc
COT Change (52W) / C - 26%, LS – 33% /

FTG Score / D 22.7, W -28.5, M 2.8 /
Huge bearish cot change signal indicating weakness ahead, weekly FTG score supporting it.


Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C - 183, LS – 184 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -43.4, W 1.2, M -34.3 /
Significant bullish cot extreme, but caution is advised: 1) Large weakness measured in the market by FTG (daily score of -43.4) and 2) correlating energy markets further away in extremes.

Gold
COT Extreme / C, LS – 62 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 27.9, W 35.2, M 46.1 /
Bearish cot extreme. Not the largest, but at a level worth mentioning. The market is at an important resistance, if it breaks through, we could see the extreme widen further. FTG scores supporting the market, especially in the long timeframes.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Platinum
COT Change (52W) / C - 18%, LS – 20% /
FTG Score / D -7.4, W -19.4, M -16.1 /
The larger than average change in Large Specs and Commercials positions, together with the negative reading from FTG suggest we could see some weakness from platinum in the coming days…

Bitcoin (CME)
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 25.0, W 60.3, M 24.5 /
We do not have such a history of cot data to be certain that we have cot signal that we can act upon, nevertheless it is interesting to see Large specs continuing to increase their net short positions, seeing Commercials net short and only Small specs taking the long side of the market. The all time extreme signal in LS would be generally considered a bullish signal, small spec net long a bearish FTG scores, especially the weekly show significant support for further rally in the market.

Canadian Dollar
COT Extreme / C - 72, LS – 68 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 37.5, W -26.2, M -25.7 /
In the past few weeks we have witnessed traders changing their positions towards a more bearish situation. The example from May 2017 to October the same year suggests that we could see this trend continuing for some time before the market dips back down. Daily FTG scores seem to back this, although the weekly and monthly already expect changes happening to the CAD.


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Seems like it’s all about metals this time

Platinum
COT Change (52W) / C - 24%, LS – 25% /
FTG Score / D 16.7, W 15.1, M -33.1 /
Bearish cot changes signal together with bearish extreme and that strong FTG readings suggest to me that we have a great opportunity to enter the market from the short side.

Copper
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -27.8, W -26.6, M -18.4 /
Opposite to Platinum here we find a more bullish case: all time cot extreme in Commercials and Large speculators position. There is a good change we will find the market higher in a few weeks, months.

Gold

COT Extreme / C - 164, LS – 155, SS - 343 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 35.1, W 3.7, M 3.0 /
After the thy dynamic strengthening of the last few weeks, we should not be surprised if gold pulls back a bit, This is well signaled in the commitments of traders report.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

• 
  

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Brazilian Real
COT Change (52W) / C - 54%, LS – 54% /
FTG Score / D -24,1, W -36,7, M -25,9 /
All major cot signals are indicating that we have a good chance to see the market to rally.

Wheat (Minn.)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -25.7, W -31.3, M -29.7/
All time cot extremes are always highly valued, but we should be careful, since history has proven that we can be in such a place for a long time before we see the major trend change… Nevertheless we should be prepared to see Wheat go higher.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -28.6, W 26.4, M -45.2 /
Well I could simply copy+paste what I just wrote for Wheat but actually there are some differences here… If you look carefully, you may find Sugar to be in a bullish extreme since mid 2017, and we have still not been able to leave the bear market…. So even with this all time cot extreme, one should be willing to accept the high chance that Sugar will stay low even with such extremes!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Farmas]

Thank you for this information, it helps me a lot!

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C - 35%, LS – 38%, SS – 28% /
FTG Score / D 10.1, W -23.7, M -39.3 /
We have a pretty large bearish cot change signal accompanied by bearish weekly and monthly FTG scores. Without any significant extreme in the market, we can expect prices to fall in the next couple of weeks.

VIX
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -48.3, W -35.4, M -22.9/
All time bullish extreme in the VIX may also be considered a great signal for stock indexes (bearish). Of course as stated in the cot review, we should not neglect the possibility of further rises in the stress level = we could see greater extremes coming in the next couple of weeks.


Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – 108 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 51.8, W -13.8, M -19.6 /
We have a pretty nice bearish cot extreme in Soybean Oil, but caution is advised, daily FTG scores show great strength in the market.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Farmas]

Fresh Information

 

[ryn996]

Just signed up for the service. Why did you stop posting, @Dunstan?