Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Lean Hogs
COT Change (52W) / C - 35%, LS – 50%, SS - 42% /
FTG Score / D 25.6, W -6.7, M 8.1 /
Seem as if the market started reacting to these bearish signals coming from the cot report. Let’s see what happens the next few weeks.


Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 17.9, W 8.9, M -2.8 /
As in case of Lean hogs, here we can also find signs that the market started to change in accordance with the cot signals. Such extremes are always great signals that eventually produce results.

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / LS – 308, SS – 308 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 6.5, W -29.7, M -67.9 /
As the extreme grew larger, so did FTG scores become even more bearish. Now we have an ever higher probability for the currency to lose value against the USD.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Brazilian Real
COT Change (52W) / C - 34%, LS – 32%, SS - 21% /
FTG Score / D -40.3, W -47.5, M -43.2 /
Very large change has happened in Traders positions here (bullish cot signal), but FTG scores indicate that further weakness is on its way, so maybe we should wait a bit…


Bitcoin (CME)
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.4, W -8.8, M 10.9 /
COT analysis is here is not as straight forward here since we are talking about only a 1 year history for Bitcoin, but the fact that small speculators are heavily long suggests to me that there could be a higher chance for the market to move lower in the next couple of weeks /months. We will see… interesting market


Russian Ruble
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -18.8, W -40.9, M -53.2 /
One of the nicest opportunities this week: All time cot extreme signal (bearish) and a support from FTG as well.


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Brazilian Real
COT Change (52W) / C - 23%, LS – 26%, SS - 28% /
FTG Score / D 29.0, W 19.7, M -2.5 /
Bearish cot change signaling some decline for this week, but the larger picture seems to remain bullish.

Bitcoin (CME)
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 7.4, W -18.3, M 12.7 /
Following my remarks from last post I am still cautious here and waiting for enough history to be able to start seeing correlations between cot data and price action.

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C – 312 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 13.3, W -9.2, M -57.8 /
If you are someone who is expecting a USD rise, then you should consider the Mexican peso as a means of trading it. The all time bearish cot extreme speaks for itself.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[mbondy]

Bitcoin (CME)
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.4, W -8.8, M 10.9 /
COT analysis is here is not as straight forward here since we are talking about only a 1 year history for Bitcoin, but the fact that small speculators are heavily long suggests to me that there could be a higher chance for the market to move lower in the next couple of weeks /months. We will see… interesting market

The fact that amateurs are literally the MM's here should be a dead giveaway that this is going higher. When the price approaches 6k, literally half the world is going to lean into the offers and send this thing flying.

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Oats
COT Change (52W) / C - 30%, LS – 32%, SS - 14% /
FTG Score / D 27.1, W 35.7, M 35.6 /
No extreme / bearish cot change signal / strong FTG scores: pretty mixed up picture here, maybe it’s best to step aside and wait for a better more clearer situation.

Russian Ruble
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 15.3, W -27.9, M -52.5 /
The all time extreme combined with such FTG scores says that a very nice shorting opportunity is on the table here

Corn
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -25.0, W -50.9, M -48.6 /
All time bullish extreme but here we do not have support from FTG, thus there may be a good chance that the market is continuing the decline and as it does, we will be receiving even greater extremes the next couple of weeks.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

The fact that amateurs are literally the MM's here should be a dead giveaway that this is going higher. When the price approaches 6k, literally half the world is going to lean into the offers and send this thing flying.

Could be the case, I don't know... We will see the next few weeks/months what happens, it is definitely very interesting.

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Swiss Franc
COT Change (52W) / C - 15%, LS – 14%, SS - 10% /
FTG Score / D -7.2, W -49.9, M -13.7 /
All of our main cot signals are pointing upwards, but the high weekly FTG score (bearish) warns us to be cautious, further declines could be on their way.

Russian Ruble
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 17.3, W -24.4, M -50.2 /
If you were following these signals, then probably you have hopped on a profitable wagon here In accordance with the cot extreme signal the market started to move lower and the picture suggests this may continue for many more weeks and months.

Corn
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -25.9, W -48.9, M -52.2 /
My last week’s remark still holds and you can see that the extreme in the market simply became even larger. FTG system still very bearish, thus patients is still necessary here.


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Australian Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C - 17%, LS – 15%, SS - 14% /
FTG Score / D -28.1, W -55.9, M -43.8 /
We can see a bullish cot change signal, an extreme cot signal becoming very bullish week by week, but bearish FTG readings suggest we may need to wait a little longer.

Euro
COT Extreme / LS – 125 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -50.9, W -47.4, M -19.0 /
The bullish extreme in Euro similarly to AUD is becoming larger and larger, but has not yet reached all time levels. Due to the fundamentals we are all aware of (US economy’s relative strength compared to rest of the world), I would expect a significant extreme (all time) before Euro turns north.

Swiss Franc
COT Index (10 year) / C - 95%, LS – 10%, SS - 6% /
FTG Score / D -33.2, W -28.7, M -10.1 /
The bullish extreme in the CHF is the strongest, could be one of the first ones that may advance against the USD… or one might see some potential in going long here against a weaker currency like the Russian ruble or the MXP-

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[mbondy]

The fact that amateurs are literally the MM's here should be a dead giveaway that this is going higher. When the price approaches 6k, literally half the world is going to lean into the offers and send this thing flying.

...aaaaaand it's begun.

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Corn
COT Change (52W) / C - 36%, LS – 31%, SS - 16% /
FTG Score / D 27.8, W 43.3, M 11.3 /
Bearish cot change signal suggesting some weakness early this week, but FTG seems to support further price increases. Let’s not forget that not long ago we have had a significant bullish cot extreme and bearish extremes are still far away.


Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – 163 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -62.8, W -18.6, M -17.9 /
Huge bullish extreme in recent cot report, but I’d wait a bit longer before entering the market. -62.8 daily FTG score suggests a near term new test of lows.

Oats
COT Index (10 year) / C - 11%, LS – 98%, SS - 48% /
FTG Score / D 28.1, W 49.5, M 44.3 /
Bearish cot extreme in oats suggesting that prices could retreat to lower levels in the next couple of weeks.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading