Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

I appreciate you posting this information, and the sentiment indications are of interest, on the margin, however don’t these reports represent 2 week old information? Silver since then has dropped even further. And just eyeballing things, interest can be at record long/short for many months. How do you account for this?

I do realize it’s just one piece of the puzzle. What are some other, more time sensitive sentiment reports? Are there any? I know of a bunch for equities (eg aaii bulls/bears, rydex bull/bear flows, Mcclellan, etc), but I’m not aware of others for commodities, are you?

Hi treeman,

No, these are not 2 weeks old data. CFTC publishes the cot report on a weekly basis, but you can find a lot more information about this if you read the first posts in this thread

COT analysis is stress measuring tool for me, thus market reaction can be very slow... best for swing traders / long term investors!

COT data is NOT derived from price data, it shows the positions of major Traders in markets. This is what gives its enormous value.

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 18%, LS – 27% /
FTG Score / D 32.4, W 18.3, M 17.8 /
Bullish cot change signal together with positive reading from FuturesTradingGuides suggesting further strength in the market.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C – 240 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -28.7, W -26.9, M -21.5 /
Beautiful bullish extreme, but as said in the cot review, could further increase (lower prices supported by FTG scores).

Copper
COT Extreme / C, LS – 97 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -39.3, W -11.5, M 3.7 /
Large extreme, but not as great as in other metals… If buy in metals --> not copper!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 31%. 29% /
FTG Score / D 49.1, W 9.0, M 21.4 /
All cot signals show bearishness in the market, but FTG scores seem to be supporting higher prices.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 12.2, W 30.2, M 37.0 /
All Time bearish cot extreme in the market --> getting prepared for lower prices may be a good idea.

Gold
COT Extreme / C – 875, LS – 875 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -72.3, W -42.2, M -0.3 /
Huge bullish cot extreme in Gold, but at the same time the daily FTG score (-72.3) together with the weekly (-42.2) pulls be back from the arena for a while…

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS – 36% 14% /
FTG Score / D -4.1, W 28.0, M 36.8 /
Interesting to see Traders still close to bullish extreme levels here. As said in the review, I think we should always have a look at the other indexes as well to get an overall picture. I had a look at the U.S. Stock Index Complex cot data (only at COTbase) and saw All Time BEARISH cot extreme!! So even with the bullish signs we have right now in Nasdaq (bullish cot change signal as well), I’m more leaning toward the idea that stock indexes are way overvalued at the moment.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -59.5, W -45.2, M -8.5 /
Although we have this beautiful bullish cot extreme (All Time), because of the significant FTG Scores I’d be more careful in entering the market. Of course if you are a long term investor, you may neglect these shorter term signals

Gold
COT Extreme / C – 910, LS – 911 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -10.7, W -44.1, M -9.1 /
The picture is pretty clear, the extreme we have in metals these days is astonishing. Gold seems to have bottomed and there is a good chance that we shall see rising prices!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 22%, SS - 24% /
FTG Score / D 15.8, W -38.8, M -14.8 /
Larger change in Traders positions suggest some rebound in prices. The extreme has risen also, plus weekly and monthly FTG scores are bearish. We may see some decline.

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / C, LS – 176 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -54.1, W -1.4, M -10.4 /
Significant bullish extreme, but (!) caution is advised due to large bearish FTG score (daily).

Euro
COT Extreme / LS – 83 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -20.4, W -44.3, M -27.4 /
Relatively larger bullish extreme (about 1.5 years since Traders were at such levels) suggesting a possible strengthening, on the other hand FTG scores on all timeframes producing bearish signals. Picture is not that easy, we can argue in both directions.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 28%, SS - 20% /
FTG Score / D -20.5, W 12.0, M 34.7 /
We saw a bullish cot change signal, but the extreme is still bearish. This, combined with a -20.5 daily FTG score suggests to me that we may neglect the change signal and focus our attention on the larger picture.

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / C, LS – 178 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -27.9, W -0.5, M -14.3 /
The picture remained the same in the past two weeks since my last post… The bullish extreme is in place, prices should head north in the medium/long term.

Euro
COT Extreme / C – 85, LS – 86 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -61.3, W -11.3, M -12.4 /
Although bullish extreme grew larger, the HUGE daily FTG score pushes me towards the assumption that price will continue to fall.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C - 27%, LS – 30% /
FTG Score / D -16.9, W -30.2, M -43.6 /
Huge bearish cot change signal which brings expectations of lower prices in the short run… still, I’d say that we shouldn’t forget about the all-time bullish extreme which caused the recent rallies --> it is still in place… On the other hand we see greater weaknesses in the future from FuturesTradingGuides: Monthly FTG score at -43.6, weekly scores are also significant… Sum: I may step aside from this market and search for more clearer opportunities.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C - 76, LS – 154, SS – 73 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -6.6, W 13.4, M -6.8 /
My focus is purely on the cot report here, since FTG scores are more or less in neutral zone for me… Looking at the 5-year chart it becomes clear that we are headed towards the end of this decline. I am not suggesting to exit current short positions / enter long, since throughout my years of experience I have seen multiple examples of extremes widening to greater and great levels for many weeks/months… If I had to bet, I’d say there is a large chance this will happen here, but (!) the warning signs are here.

Lumber
COT Extreme / C, LS – 147 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -33.4, W -5.2, M 39.5 /
Huge bullish extreme suggesting higher prices coming, still… -33.4 daily FTG scores pull me back from entering yet. The monthly scores definitely support the picture painted by the cot report. Sum: we may see a shift in the trend happening the next couple of months.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Silver
COT Change (52W) / C - 28%, LS – 30% /
FTG Score / D 3.0, W -17.7, M -38.4 /
Although we have this large bullish cot change signal, the fact that the market fell after bearish extremes of past few weeks suggests that further decline is very possible in silver. This is fully supported by FTG scores: the more we look out in time, the stronger these scores become.

Euro
COT Extreme / C - 103, LS – 115 COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -49.7, W -46.1, M -32.0 /
Bullish extreme growing steadily suggesting possible euro strengthening, but caution is advised, FTG scores show a very bearish picture bot in the short and also in the long term.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C - 192, LS – 112 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -7.2, W -27.1, M -36.8 /
We may need to wait a few more weeks, but rough rice seem to be giving us a good trading opportunity. The extreme is leaning towards the bullish side again and if we look at what the market did in the past in such cases, we can conclude a high chance of probability for it rally once more.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.


Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C - 26%, LS – 24%, SS - 34% /
FTG Score / D -30.1, W -37.5, M -28.6 /
Huge cot change signal, but possibly late for us… COT extreme still bullish, but significant bearish FTG scores suggest the real rally is further away, months or even years should not surprise us.

Wheat (Kansas)
COT Extreme / C - 135, LS – 156 COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -41.2, W 0.8, M -37.6 /
Huge bullish cot extreme can be witnessed here indicating a rally ahead of us. By looking at FTG scores I would expect a bit of a decline now giving us better entry points.

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / LS – 68, SS - 362 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 27.0, W 21.8, M -4.0 /
Growing bearish cot extreme suggesting a top soon, but FTG scores indicating strength in the market suggests that patients could be a profitable direction now.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Lean Hogs
COT Change (52W) / C - 50%, LS – 27%, SS - 57% /

COT Extreme / SS – 1270 COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 6.9, W -12.2, M 14.3 /
All of our cot signals are bearish, ftg scores are not against this view either so we may be in for a top soon…

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.4, W 8.9, M 4.5 /
Correlating markets (LH) so we are not surprised to see this bearish cot signal in live cattle… Pretty obvious picture, not much to argue about

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / LS – 302, SS - 303 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.8, W -11.8, M -42.5 /
Beautiful bearish cot extreme signal which of course means that the chances of Mexican peso to lose value against the USD has risen dramatically. Looking at examples from the past one can easily come to the conclusion that cot extreme signals seem to be very efficient in this market.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading